CHANNELS.IND.200509

SUMMARY: IDEA WEEKLY (IDEA). Prices gapped up till 0.618 key FIB levels at 83. Moving average crossover is still positive. BHARTI WEEKLY (BRTI). Prices pushed higher till psychological 1,000 levels. This seems like an extreme impulse which cannot be sustained for long. RELIANCE WEEKLY (RLCM). Prices broke key resistance levels at 250 and pushed higher. However, the gapping action suggests that we should see at least some retracement now. MAHANAGAR TELEPHONE NIGAM DAILY (MTNL). Prices pushed higher till key resistances at 93 levels. The C/3 wave up should be completing near current levels. TATA MOTORS DAILY (TAMO). Prices continued to push higher till key resistance levels near 320. ASHOK WEEKLY (ASOK). Prices are at 0.382 key FIB levels at psychological 30. Over reactive RSI suggests an exhausting upmove. CROMPTON WEEKLY (CROM). A RISING WINDOW is a bullish signal, suggesting that we could see further upmove from current levels. BHARAT HEAVY WEEKLY (BHEL). Over reactive RSI and gapping action suggest an exhausting upmove. Key levels lie at 2,180. LARSEN WEEKLY (LART). Moving average crossover is positive. Key levels lie at 0.5 FIB near 1,500. RELIANCE DAILY (RELI). Daily KEY REVERSAL bar and gapping action suggest a topping near current levels.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks.

REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS
REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS
REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 19 May 2009 | Comments (0)

Tags: channels

Categories: India

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THE THREE SYSTEMS – TIME TRIADS - The omnipresent three systems is not a coincidence, it might be the pulse of everything.

Three is often the largest number written with as many lines as the number represents. To this day 3 is written as three lines in Roman and Chinese numerals. This was the way the Indians wrote it, and it was all the way after the Guptas, the Nagaris and the Western Ghubar Arabs that we created our modern 3. more…

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THE TIME FRACTAL – TIME - Do you think understanding TIME will help us understand economics better?

My friend from Reuters Thompson always says that my presentations are more interesting than his, a polite way of saying that I am more animated than him. At the same time he wonders why I have so many pictures in my slides rather than text. I also keep wondering the same. Pictures just let me express more. It was a similar graphic exercise I did while speaking at the Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest a few weeks back. I put the picture of a few historical research gurus (who are also known as creators or father of a certain subject) and started querying my shy audience.more…

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IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE – TIME - At the recent meeting, a client said that it is time for new valuation theories as old theories are dead. This coming from someone who made it to the Top 300 rich list of Romanians indicated what smart money was thinking. It also illustrated how much time it took for a mainstream thought to be challenged.

Shiller’s theory

It was about 30 years ago, Robert Shiller – the award winning economist, author of Irrational Exuberance, a bestseller that challenged the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in an article published in the American Economic Review in 1981. 30 years, yes that is what it took. This is how outdated we are in our thought. more…

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200 PERIOD RETEST – GLOBAL – Last week this is what we said:

“prices have hit anticipated time windows. a push up above 8,100 could see a push up till 8,400. but this remains low probability scenario for us. continued retest of 8,100 resistance suggests upmove is incomplete. overreactive momentum and RSI support at 40 continues to keep the reco up but topping” more…

E STORE AT REUTERS KNOWLEDGE

THE CLOCK – GLOBAL – Today we introduce ‘THE CLOCK’. Few might call it the ‘TIME MACHINE’, but if we had one, life would be different. Who knows, a time machine might be riskier that the clock. With the way the crisis is going, it seems funding the time machine might take a few more decades. And since time is moving against us and the volatility has stressed many of our nerves, many would prefer sticking to something more crude than a high tech complex machine like default swaps. This clock that we have illustrated here is very simple. more…

E STORE AT REUTERS KNOWLEDGE

BUY THE LOSERS, SELL THE WINNERS – ROMANIA – It will really do a lot of good if our forum commentators review the available behavioral finance literature. The available studies also comment on internet forums along with analysts, fund managers and the media. We don’t agree with all what the subject says, but there is a lot to learn regarding how flawed our thinking is.

Behavioral finance also says BUY THE LOSERS, SELL THE WINNERS. We tested this. more…

BETFI MAY TOP IS HERE – ROMANIA – This is what we said on 14 APR

“BETFI GETS READY TO TURN. What if the clock you were wearing measures time incorrectly? What if time was not just about equality? What if time was a pattern, which ruled everything? For us at Orpheus time is mathematical, a geometric pattern which defines everything from BETFI, EURON, Social behavior, market information and news and the rest of the scientific universe. We have carried a TIME CLOCK here, which is marking grey vertical lines suggesting time lows or potential market BETNG dips. more…

E STORE AT REUTERS KNOWLEDGE

THE TECH REVERSAL II – INDIA – This is what we said on 14 JAN.

“We are betting on a turn here. CNXIT has also shown a move up in ranks in performance over periods of 6 months, 3 months and 1 month. It has come from a negative of -38.16% over 6 months to a positive move of 3.47% over the last month. The index has moved up despite all negative news and a sector leader going bust, a classic proof of relative outperformance. more…

E STORE AT REUTERS KNOWLEDGE

SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY

Just like OCT low, “SELL in MAY and go away” is a well documented expression. It might look coincidental now that our time windows also point to a MAY turn and low. Coincidence is another way to relate to things that human’s don’t comprehend. Blaming it on chance seems an easy way out. This was the similar coincidence, which was observed when we talked about OCT lows holding and when we talked about MAR CYCLES turning up.

If a time forecast gives more than 50% accuracy, its more than statistically significant. If the time forecasts push as high as 65%, it should ring a bell and be noticed. 100% accuracy and probability does not exist. It’s an illusion. If you are expecting RSR to deliver more than 50-65% accuracy, you are expecting too much.

RSR.080509 – VINDE-N MAI, DE CE MAI STAI?

E STORE AT REUTERS KNOWLEDGE

Visit our updated blogs:

TIME TRIADS
ECONOHISTORY
LINIA DE TREND

Visit our Blog dedicated to Romanian Markets at brokerulzilei.ro

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Author: Mukul PAL | Date: 19 May 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: The Orpheus Newsletter

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Our work as market technician’s involves a few shocks. Some we give to our readers, and a few we face ourselves. These shocks what we give or get are job hazards. Now that the primary cycle is turning, there are some primary price targets that might appear preposterous for our various regional readers, but this is how we see things.

Emerging market currencies like Romanian EURRON and Indian Rupee could strengthen by more than 20-25% till Q3 2010. The latest update on Intermarket CYCLES carry the conventional time cycles and a pair performance cycle between DOW and S&P 500. The pair illustrates a performance cycle between DOW (blue chips) and S&P 500 (broad market). In stage 1,3,5 DOW outperforms S&P and in stage 2,4,6 S&P outperforms DOW. We have discussed broad market pairs with blue chips. There are few ways to look at these pairs. One is when broad market underperformance reaches an extreme against blue chips (1,3,5) and the second when blue chips underperformance reaches an extreme against broad market (2,4,5). Both cases suggest a bottom, but it’s when blue chips start to rise that we see the strongest part of the trend. Now that the blue chips are falling compared to the broad market, markets lack strength. The table illustrates our view.

Market bottoming unlike tops are more like ‘W’s than ‘V’s. This is why our view on OIL as a corrective remains preferred than otherwise. The OIL cycles (SLIDE 15) suggests another impending dip on OIL. OIL could dip into end of MAY early JUN before hitting primary bottom.

We have illustrated two time frames in the current CYCLES report, intermediate (multi week) and primary (multi month). Though on the intermediate term our LONG-GOLD, SHORT DOW continues to hold, the primary gold cycles still suggest a secular negativity on Gold. This is in sync with the primary up turn in cycles on emerging markets.

The intermediate multi week outlook on Global Indices remain murky. Dow Minor CYCLE is topping and even the primary CYCLE considers the ongoing up leg as a reprieve in an incomplete primary leg down. Barring NIKKEI most other global indices look weak and negative on the respective time frame.

Enjoy the latest INTERMARKET CYCLES. 

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ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

INTERMARKET CYCLES covers global currency pair, global equity, emerging equity, and inter asset cycles. The product studies time cycle, asset outperformance and underperformance signals. The aim is to look at markets as a group and in isolation. This is a monthly perspective product that readers should use in conjunction with our other features like WAVES.GLOBAL , WAVES.INDIA, WAVES.FOREX, WAVES.METALS, WAVES.ENERGY, and other global features. Our economic and psychological world is well connected and cyclical. INTERMARKET CYCLES is a subject coined by us at Orpheus. The subject studies the asset linkages and the fixed periodicity between them. We look at the subject from three aspects. First from the sectoral aspect. As we redefine Equity sector rotation and reclassify global sectors into three broader sectors viz. Early Economic, Mid Economic and Late economic.  We juxtapose these three broad sectors on the economic and business cycles. Second we look at subject from the 25-30 year Asset cycles. For example the 30 year Gold cycle and commodity cycle, which is inverse of the 30 year equity cycle or social prosperity cycle. Third we look at inter asset cycles between Gold and Oil, VIX and S&P, Technology and Blue Chips, Local Currency and numerous other asset pairs to look for asset outperformance and underperformance signals.

REUTERS RICS (METALS) – XAU=, XAG= (FOREX) EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR= (GLOBAL) .BVSP, .IRTS, .FCHI, .GDAXI, .GSPC, .DJI, .N225, .SSEC, C.N, JPM.N, BAC.N, AXP.N, AIG.N, DIS.N, HD.N, GM.N, VZ.N, T.N, INTC.OQ, MSFT.OQ, HPQ.N, IBM.N, UTX.N, CAT.N, GE.N, MMM.N, BA.N, KO.N, MCD.N,  – WMT.N, DD.N, PFE.N, MRK.N, CVX.N, XOM.N, PG.N, JNJ.N, AA.N (ENERGY) BRT-, WTM- , .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N , IPNG , NG-P-CAL. (AGRO) COFSAN-4-NYC, SUG-DLY-ISA, .DJAIGCT, CCCI-NYC, CORN.L, C-US2Y-GULF,.SPGSCN, W-RJK-MLQ, .DJAIGWHTR (GREEN) – NEX, G3E.CO, EEN.PA, TEO.PA,.WOWAXPD,.GWE, HSNT.L,GAM, .SPGTCLEN, VWS.CO, FSLR.O, VIE.PA, ITT, .BIOX,ADM, BG, CSAN3.SA, .SUNIDX, QCEG.DE, 3402.T, 3401.T, CLIE.L

intermarketcycles1905091 DOWLOAD THE REPORT 

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 19 May 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: Global

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Enjoy the latest WAVES.ROM

ORPHEUS ROMANIA RESEARCH

WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 19 May 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: Romania

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Near 20% move can wash up a derivatives portfolio or double it in a day. We don’t specially focus on risk management in our research, but these are the days, when we really think of stressing more on risk management than on forecasts. Despite everything, event risk should be best avoided or handled with long options than with futures. If you think you were smarter getting away with doubling your portfolio, you are fooling yourself, as volatility is a double edged sword. It can cut you as well as it can hurt your counterparty.  We were on the wrong side of the market. Strangely we were receiving congratulatory calls from people who remembered our work on LONG INDIA, SHORT CHINA we wrote on 23 Feb this year. The pair made 50% in three months. The idea is still about risk management than just about being right. Being right 9 times and wiped out the 10th time is worthless. A few even called us regarding the possibility of a review of our annual target.

This is what we said in our 2009 India Outlook published in Jan 2009.

“We won’t be surprised if prices retest Oct lows or breach them marginally early Q2 2009. And this means selective stock picking and better to minimize market exposure by doing quantitative long short strategies. 13,000 – 15,000 is an achievable high for Sensex in 2009.”

Enjoy the latest WAVES.INDIA and TRADE SAFE.

ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH

WAVES.IND. is a perspective product published on Monday and Wednesday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

Reuters RICS. STOCKS. MAHM.BO, MRTI.BO, LART.BO, TAMO.BO, ACC.BO, ABUJ.BO, GRAS.BO, HDBK.BO, ICBK.BO, SBI.BO, HALC.BO, RLEN.BO, BHEL.BO, HLL.BO, NTPC.BO, SATY.BO, TCS.BO, INFY.BO, WIPR.BO, BJAT.BO, ONGC.BO, RELI.BO, RANB.BO, CIPL.BO, DLF.BO, TISC.BO, ITC.BO, BRTI.BO, RLCM.BO

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 19 May 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: India

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA