CHANNELS.IND.260609

SUMMARY: OIL AND NATURAL GAS DAILY (ONGC): Moving average crossover has turned negative. A breach of the true trendline near psychological 1,000 levels would strengthen our negative view. RELIANCE ENERGY DAILY (RLIN): Moving average crossover is still struggling to turn negative. AMBUJA DAILY (ABUJ): Moving average crossover is negative. Below key 84 levels we get more negative confirmation. ACC DAILY (ACC): Prices bounced back from key supports at psychological 700. Moving average crossover is negative. HINDALCO DAILY (HALC): Prices retraced 0.382 FIB from the previous impulsive structure up. We need a clear break below psychological 80 levels to continue to look lower. NTPC DAILY (NTPC): Prices continued to push lower after DOUBLE TOP formation. Below key 190 levels we continue to look lower till key 160. TISCO DAILY (TISC): Moving average crossover turned negative. Below key 365 levels we get more negative confirmation. CIPLA DAILY (CIPL): The c/iii wave up is completing near key 270 levels. RANBAXY DAILY (RANB): Moving average is ready to turn negative. A clear break at mid channel supports would validate our view. ITC DAILY (ITC): Prices continue to coil around psychological 200 levels. Moving average crossover is still positive.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 25 June 2009 | Comments (0)

Tags: channels

Categories: India

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WAVES.FOREX.250609

We have reached an internal inflexion between the forex team. When an alternate count starts to take shape the reader should realize that we are starting looking at a market surprise.

Though the preferred view suggest that the DOLLAR 1.4 should hold and we should continue to push lower to 1.3, there is a case which suggests that the pair might surprise and push to near 1.5 levels.

How plausible is the alternate scenario? Can we see through the fractal and intermarket maze? Intermarket meaning to take cues from various currencies around the world to understand how strong is our preferred strengthening view.

A careful look and one can see the preferred view of INR, LEI, YEN, CAD. One side is the dollar and other side a host of other currencies. Preferred view getting negated on DOLLAR would mean that we are negating our preferred view on all the other currencies. Our view on INR, LEI (RON), CAD, YEN suggests a likely upside from here. This means that DOLLAR strengthening preferred view should hold. There is no upmove on EUR USD till we have a reversal on rest of the pairs.

This is why alternate EXPANDED FLAT (SLIDE 5, 6) still remains a low probability scenario for us. We will keep a close eye on the INFLEXIONS. We have carried some primary (multi year) anticipated and happened updates on LEI (RON) and INR. As we reach key inflexion points, understanding the larger picture becomes more important. The larger view suggests a final impending weakness in emerging market currencies like INR and LEI (Romania). This might just seal the fate for DOLLAR 1.3

Enjoy the latest WAVES.FOREX.

WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 25 June 2009 | Comments (0)

Tags: waves

Categories: Forex

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It’s too early too look for a change of view. Why?

First: BETFI vs. BETC pair is overstretched against BETFI. Historically all these extremes have been followed by a drop in BETFI. How can it be explained? BETFI is blue chip compared to the broad based BETC. When blue chip reaches an outperformance extreme against broad market, markets generally pause and drop.

Second: The excitement on BETFI is not witnessed in BETC, BETNG, BETXT and BET. One index excitement maybe too much to turn around an exhausting multi month trend.

Third: Both BRD and ERST have Key Reversal bars which are unbroken. Till we see a break in prices, we don’ t have negative confirmation.

Fourth: TEL and TGN utility majors remain negative.This is why any similarities to a continuation TRIANGLE in BETFI may be too early a signal to change our DOWN RECO. We have enclosed the relevant cases.

Enjoy the special update on WAVES.ROM

* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.

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WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 25 June 2009 | Comments (0)

Tags: ATBE.BX, BATR.BX, BETC, BETFI, BIOF.BX, BRDX.BX, BRKU.BX, IMPT.BX, ROMP.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF5.BX, SNPP.BX, TSEL.BX, TUBU.BX

Categories: Romanian Pairs and Assets

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There are stories about the inverse correlation between SENSEX and the US Dollar Index (USD). The same stories which talk about inverse correlation can also explain perfect correlation, but there is something missing here. First, perfect correlation does not last. Second, if instead of absolute prices if we compare changes between prices, the idea of correlation adorns a new meaning. For us at Orpheus it is not about positive or negative correlation, it is about the cycle of correlation.

The question of when DOLLAR strengthening against SENSEX will start or vice versa is more important than the obvious fact that dollar strengthening affects Sensex inversely. SENSEX pushed 17% higher in dollar terms compared to INR. This was a result of INR weakness against the dollar that was reflected in SENSEX returns.

According to performance cycles, an asset will always outperform or underperform the other asset. This means that there will always be an inverse correlation between any pair of assets if you are comparing performances. So what matters is really not correlation, but which of the assets is outperforming the other and WHEN.

In continuation of the above view we continue to look lower on SENSEX. The current downmove looks like an impulse which should push prices back till open gap levels.

We highlighted a Head and Shoulders pattern on SENSEX and Double Top pattern on NIFTY and BSE OIL. The current report also carries ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED cases on NIFTY, CNXIT and BSE REALTY, as well as time oscillators updates. Our overall Indian market view remains negative.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.INDIA

* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.

ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 25 June 2009 | Comments (0)

Tags: .BSEAUTO, .BSEBANK, .BSECG, .BSEOIL, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, .NSEI, BSESN, CITc1, IFc1, USD

Categories: Cross Pairs

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It’s too early too look for a change of view. Why?

First: BETFI vs. BETC pair is overstretched against BETFI. Historically all these extremes have been followed by a drop in BETFI. How can it be explained? BETFI is blue chip compared to the broad based BETC. When blue chip reaches an outperformance extreme against broad market, markets generally pause and drop.

Second: The excitement on BETFI is not witnessed in BETC, BETNG, BETXT and BET. One index excitement maybe too much to turn around an exhausting multi month trend.

Third: Both BRD and ERST have Key Reversal bars which are unbroken. Till we see a break in prices, we don’ t have negative confirmation.

Fourth: TEL and TGN utility majors remain negative.This is why any similarities to a continuation TRIANGLE in BETFI may be too early a signal to change our DOWN RECO. We have enclosed the relevant cases.

Enjoy the special update on WAVES.ROM

Login for orpheus.asia member’s area here.

WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 25 June 2009 | Comments (0)

Tags: ATBE.BX, BATR.BX, BETFI, BIOF.BX, BRDX.BX, BRKU.BX, IMPT.BX, ROMP.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF5.BX, SNPP.BX, TSEL.BX, TUBU.BX

Categories: Romania

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