This question may have many answers based on when you ask it. The question may have no meaning if it was asked at the market top at BSEBANK 12,678 (20 Jan 2008). It may evoke a shrug if asked at Oct 2008 lows (BSEBANK 3,601). Now that BSEBANK has retraced almost 61.8% of the losses from historical highs (29 Jun 2009 8,575) the answer may at best be mixed. more….
WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.
REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=
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We have written about the GOLD-SILVER index aka the prosperity index many times. The first time we wrote about it was on 13 Nov 2006. This is what we said then.
“Did you know that the price relationship between Gold and Silver is not fixed? It varies substantially. And it has predictive value too. As in different market environments, the value of Gold is perceived differently than Silver. Gold is perceived as an important crisis commodity. As fear replaces confidence, Gold increases in value relative to Silver. For example risks of economic and political upheaval. When the market risks are low Silver is preferred over Gold, as the white metal has many industrial uses and the consumption of Silver grows in a rising economy. he last time the value for the ratio dipped below 1 was in 1997 and then the South East Asian crisis broke leading to a bounce back in ratio. And since 1984 the ratio has never been below parity. At this stage after 22 years the ratio is headed down below 1 again. Rather it is now ruling at sub 1 level. Now there are two ways to see it, one that we are in for more prosper times that we have not witnessed since 1984. If this is true Gold should continue to fall relatively to silver, or underperform silver. Second way to look at it is that we are once again sitting at the edge of a crisis, which might be just around the corner. At this stage, we have a falling five wave ratio line. This means that there is no fear in the market and hence this maybe not an opportune time to go long on the crisis commodity yet.”
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WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.
REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL
Author: Orpheus | Date: 01 July 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: waves
Categories: Metals
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We have written about the GOLD-SILVER index aka the prosperity index many times. The first time we wrote about it was on 13 Nov 2006. This is what we said then.
“Did you know that the price relationship between Gold and Silver is not fixed? It varies substantially. And it has predictive value too. As in different market environments, the value of Gold is perceived differently than Silver. Gold is perceived as an important crisis commodity. As fear replaces confidence, Gold increases in value relative to Silver. For example risks of economic and political upheaval. When the market risks are low Silver is preferred over Gold, as the white metal has many industrial uses and the consumption of Silver grows in a rising economy. he last time the value for the ratio dipped below 1 was in 1997 and then the South East Asian crisis broke leading to a bounce back in ratio. And since 1984 the ratio has never been below parity. At this stage after 22 years the ratio is headed down below 1 again. Rather it is now ruling at sub 1 level. Now there are two ways to see it, one that we are in for more prosper times that we have not witnessed since 1984. If this is true Gold should continue to fall relatively to silver, or underperform silver. Second way to look at it is that we are once again sitting at the edge of a crisis, which might be just around the corner. At this stage, we have a falling five wave ratio line. This means that there is no fear in the market and hence this maybe not an opportune time to go long on the crisis commodity yet.”
This is what we said on 24 Jan 2007 regarding the sentiment index.
The prosperity index espouses the same principle of wrong choices at an extreme. We highlighted the prosperity index on 13 Nov 06 in our WAVES.METALS report. Also known as the Gold-Silver ratio, the ratio lows come near prosperity highs. As illustrated, we as a society are heading into the most prosper times of the last 25 years. And conventional wisdom and conventional research foresees prosperity as a straight line, which means the bounty and loot shoot continue. But unfortunately, life and everything in nature, like stock market is cyclical. After high prosperity it’s time for the swing to the other extreme. The ratio is near 1 and has always returned back from these levels for a quarter century.
Currently, the ratio line on the intermediate and primary time frames continue to point lower suggesting that the crisis is behind us (gold falling against silver is good times as crisis commodity is falling) and we are nearing a primary up leg up on equities. It is the minor degree or weekly ratio line that suggests further fine tuning. Unlike the monthly chart (top), the weekly ratio line (bottom) continues to suggest a multi week outperformance on gold compared to silver is pending before gold comes down explaining our primary view on gold (SLIDE 2).
Industrial metals like steel and copper have started to show cracking signs. This week we introduce palladium, which just like gold may have a final leg up this year. In conclusion the metals confusion, minor multi week up followed by a primary multi month leg down is what we are betting on. Key 925 we mentioned last time on gold held. We still expect respective levels to hold. We will review if 925 breaks. Meanwhile LONG GOLD-SHORT SILVER is a pair we are tracking. We have update the report with performance pair tracker.
Enjoy the latest WAVES.GOLD
* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.
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WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.
REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL
Author: Orpheus | Date: 01 July 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: .NSTL, .SPGSIZ, CU-NYC, SPGSIA, waves, XAG=, XAU=, XPT=
Categories: Metal Pairs
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Monthly momentum ROC give primary multi month signals. The indicator is suggesting a multi month bottoming situation on industrial stocks. This is a special issue on monthly ROC. SUMMARY: ELECTROPUTERE MONTHLY (EPT). Monthly ROC hits a low suggesting that the worst for the stock could be over and any dip down should be last before a multi month reversal. SOCEP MONTHLY (SOCP). Monthly ROC suggests cycle lows are here and our anticipated supports near 0.13 levels should hold and give a reversal upmove. ARMATURA MONTHLY (ARM). Monthly ROC hits a low and suggests that intermediate reversal for the stock might be in. Any dips from current levels should be the last. UAMT MONTHLY (UAMT). Prices are reaching a decade cycle low creating a 5 year low opportunity to buy. AEROSTAR MONTHLY (ARSB). Unlike other industrial majors, Aerostar is still bottoming. We can not rule out a continued push lower before a reversal. ELECTROCONTACT WEEKLY (ETC). Prices broke upwards the channels support. Next key level lies at 0.04. MEFIN MONTHLY (MEF). Monthly ROC suggests that primary (multi month) reversal is here. CONDMAG MONTHLY (COMI). Momentum ROC suggests that primary reversal is here. TURBOMECANICA MONTHLY (TBM). Monthly ROC has hit base and has started to diverge. Any dip down should be the last leg down. ARTROM MONTHLY (ART). Prices reach primary conventional supports.
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CHANNELS.BVB
CHANNELS.BVB is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and focuses on stocks more than Indices. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.ROM and CHANNELS.ROM are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers just BVB stocks all mid cap and small cap.
CHANNELS.BVB on MONDAY covers the Early Economic Sector cycle including Financials and Discretionary sector stocks.
REUTERS RIC – (BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, BRKU.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF5.BX, BCCA.BX, ASAG.BX, FLAA.BX, EFOR.BX, TUFE.BX, SIPA.BX, ELBU.BX, ERST.BX, IMPT.BX)
CHANNELS.BVB on WEDNESDAY covers the Mid Economic Sector cycle including INDUSTRIALS sector stocks.
REUTERS RIC – (TUBU.BX, SOCC.BX, ARTM.BX, ARSB.BX, SNOS.BX, ALTC.BX, ARMA.BX, CMLF.BX, MEFI.BX, EPUT.BX, ETAC.BX, UAMT.BX, COMPA.BX, APOM.BX, MECF.BX, COMI.BX)
CHANNELS.BVB on FRIDAY covers the Late Economic Sector cycle including Energy, Staples, Pharma, Utilities and Chemicals sector stocks.
REUTERS RIC – (SNPP.BX, ROMP.BX, OILT.BX, PTRI.BX, PEXI.BX, ENPL.BX, TSEL.BX, MOPN.BX, BERS.BX, ALUM.BX, OLTC.BX, ALRO.BX, OTSP.BX, AMSL.BX, AZOM.BX, VNCA.BX, PPLS.BX, MJMR.BX, SIZA.BX, CBCM.BX, ZIMC.BX, PCLR.BX, ATBE.BX, SCDB.BX, BIOF.BX, DAFR.BRQ)
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Author: Orpheus | Date: 01 July 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: channels
Categories: Romania
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Why do BANKS fall? This question may have many answers based on when you ask it. The question may have no meaning if it was asked at the market top at BSEBANK 12,678 (20 Jan 2008). It may evoke a shrug if asked at Oct 2008 lows (BSEBANK 3,601). Now that BSEBANK has retraced almost 61.8% of the losses from historical highs (29 Jun 2009 8,575) the answer may at best be mixed.
Performance cycles on the other hand can give an answer at all times. BANKS can underperform NIFTY, means fall against NIFTY cyclically. For example NSEBANK fell against NIFTY three times since July 2007 for an average 140 days. If you zoom in a bit more coming from weekly to daily charts, the number of times NSEBANK underperformed NIFTY or fell against NIFTY increases by a factor of three to nine times with an average time period of 46 days. There is another interesting thing that happened during this time when BANKS were underperforming NIFTY, broad markets were falling or stagnating on all the three occasions. What does this mean? This means that if we study performance cycles (TIME FRACTALS) we can not only isolate performers but we can also understand when the broad market might be ready to turn.
NSEBANK seems ready to underperform again against NIFTY. Empirically this means that chances of a broad market stagnation or negativity might be in. We have illustrated here the pair performance cycles (INTERMEDIATE and MINOR) between NIFTY and NSEBANK. Both time frames suggest an impending cycle low which could mean the end of NIFTY’s underperformance against banks. A clear turn from respective lows should see NSEBANK underperforming NIFTY for more than a few months. This also means that LONG NIFTY– SHORT NSEBANK could be an interesting pair to watch for the next 140 or 40 days. Now 140 days is a long time which takes us well into the final quarter of 2010.
Financials react fast to economic changes and hence carry clues for market perspective. This validates our overall negative view on the Indian market, which would be challenged only if prices move above the highlighted key resistances. We have carried Elliott updates on the main indices and ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED cases on BSE REALTY and BSE POWER.
Enjoy the latest WAVES.INDIA
* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.
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WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.
COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK
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Author: Orpheus | Date: 01 July 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: .BSEAUTO, .BSEBANK, .BSECG, .BSEOIL, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, .NSEI, BSESN, CITc1, IFc1
Categories: Indian Pairs and Assets
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