Archive for July 26th, 2009

CHANNELS.INDIA – EARLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

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SUMMARY: DLF DAILY (DLF) After completing the corrective structure down, prices pushed higher and broke the minor trend channel resistances. Price targets lie at previous high levels near 430. HDFC DAILY (HDFC) Prices continue to hold key resistance levels at 2,600. No clear sign of a trend yet. HDFC BANK DAILY (HDBK) Prices bounced back after completing the corrective structure down. Above key 1,440 levels we continue to be positive on subminor. ICICI BANK DAILY (ICBK) Prices are retesting key resistances at psychological 800 levels. A clear break above respective levels would challenge our up but topping view. Moving average crossover is also positive. STATE BANK OF INDIA DAILY (SBI) Prices are at trend channel resistances near 1,750 levels. We need a clear break above respective levels to look for a reversal. INFOSYS DAILY (INFY) Prices continued to hold the minor trend channel up. Moving average crossover is still positive. Above key 2,070 levels we get more positive confirmation. TATA CONSULTING SERVICES WEEKLY (TCS) Prices are heading to previous high levels near 530. Over reactive momentum suggests a topping soon. MAHINDRA DAILY (MAHM) Prices broke previous high levels near 830. Moving average crossover is still positive. TITAN INDUSTRIES DAILY (TITN) Prices seem to be in the final fifth wave of an impulsive structure up. Immediate price targets lie at 1,400. UNITECH DAILY (UNTE) Prices pushed higher till key resistances at 88 after completing the corrective down. Above 88 levels we continue to look higher.

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CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA


READING ALPHA

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This update on ALPHA INDIA will take you through the mechanics of trading or investing based on the product signals. The pair trading strategy is divided into three different time horizons viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). We will call the portfolio with the respective names. Every pair has been classified. The above pair i.e. CNXIT-NSEBANK (IN2) is a pair between the Indian Technology index and NIFTY 50. The tracker illustrated above is a SUB MINOR portfolio with short term trades. The open date is at the top right corner.  READ MORE…


ALPHA ROMANIA STARTS SIGNALLING

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This update on ALPHA ROMANIA will take you through the mechanics of trading or investing based on the product signals. The pair trading strategy is divided into three different time horizons viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). We will call the portfolio with the respective names. Every pair has been classified. The above pair between SIF2-SIF5 is labeled as (RO1). The tracker illustrated above is an Intermediate portfolio with multi week trades lasting an average 66 trading session. The open date is at the top right corner. The pair was opened 14 days back.

Intermediate trades have large holding period and hence few entry points. Minor portfolio on the other hand have shorter holding periods and hence more signals than the intermediate portfolio. The +A – B notations suggest that the strategy is about buying SIF2 and selling SIF5. Now a trader should keep in mind that intermediate signals are less sensitive and hence may not be effected by short term cycles. The net unit return (assuming risk weighted baskets) is 4% over the last 14 days. Time Arbitrage is an attempt to reduce risk per unit of return, but a seasoned trader knows that risk can never be eliminated and riskless arbitrage, a term quoted in finance textbooks does not exist. This is why though backtested results show limited drawdown, we have a stop loss limit at 4%.  Leveraged traders should try to diversify with multiple pairs in a portfolio. ALPHA.ROM plans to have 10 pair portfolio next month. Please review the product everytime for fresh signals. The report carries other entry signals for other pairs.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications.

Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ROM

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ALPHA is a pair trading strategy product based on TIME ARBITRAGE, a term coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and binary charts. The product carries running performance portfolio tracker and give clear entry and exit signals. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA


READING ALPHA

ALPHA.READING.270709


This update on ALPHA INDIA will take you through the mechanics of trading or investing based on the product signals. The pair trading strategy is divided into three different time horizons viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). We will call the portfolio with the respective names. Every pair has been classified. The above pair i.e. CNXIT-NSEBANK (IN2) is a pair between the Indian Technology index and NIFTY 50. The tracker illustrated above is a SUB MINOR portfolio with short term trades. The open date is at the top right corner.

The signals for this tracker generally repeat every 23 days. The +A – B notations suggest that the strategy is about buying CNXIT and selling NSEBANK. Now a trader should keep in mind that short term signals are only suggesting short term CNXIT outperformance against NSENBANK. The net unit return (assuming risk weighted baskets) is 3%. Time Arbitrage is an attempt to reduce risk per unit of return, but a seasoned trader knows that risk can never be eliminated and riskless arbitrage, a term quoted in finance textbooks does not exist. This is why though backtested results show limited drawdown, we have a stop loss limit at 4%.  Leveraged traders should try to diversify with multiple pairs in a portfolio. ALPHA.INDIA plans to have 10 pair portfolio next month. Please review the product everytime for fresh signals. The report carries other entry signals for other pairs.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications.

Enjoy the latest ALPHA.IND

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ALPHA is a pair trading strategy product based on TIME ARBITRAGE, a term coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and binary charts. The product carries running performance portfolio tracker and give clear entry and exit signals. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA