Metals are leading ALPHA GLOBAL with Silver and Gold both running fresh longs. Dow despite all the excitement is closed with a marginal gain. EURO DOLLAR is pointing higher. In bonds we have a running short on German BUND. We will be adding 20 more global assets to the current tracker and 10 pairs.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only and short only strategy product based on TIME fractals.  Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers DOW, S&P500, SENSEX (INDIA), GOLD, SILVER, EURO DOLLAR, YEN DOLLAR, 10 YEAR US TREASURY BONDS, 10 YEAR GERMAN BUND.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications.  *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 07 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: Global Pairs

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RATE OF CHANGE

Rate of change is the simplest way to understand time

Speculations in stock markets are about a price change. A change in price can increase or decrease profits. How do we measure this change? If the Sensex rose from 14,000 to 15,000, you could say either that it rose by 1,000 points or, alternatively, that it increased by 7 per cent. Stating the increase as 1,000 points (an absolute measure) is simple and straightforward. Yet to interpret the figure it must be judged against another figure, such as the starting level. A rise of 1,000 points in an index standing at 2,000 is much more dramatic than an increase of 1,000 points in an index which started at 14,000. The percentage change (a relative measure) is easy to interpret. It indicates the size of a change when the starting level is 100. Percentages therefore provide a consistent yardstick for interpreting changes.  READ MORE…

TIME ANALYTICS
ALPHA INDIA – RUNNING PORTFOLIO
ALPHA ROMANIA – ROMANIAN LONGS CONTINUE TO EXHAUST
ALPHA INDIA – NSEBANK RETURN LINE
ALPHA.ROM – BETFI RETURN LINE

INDIA
WAVES.INDIA – NIFTY ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED
CHANNELS INDIA – MID ECONOMIC
NIFTY POTENTIAL – DOUBLE TOP FORMATION
CHANNELS INDIA – LATE ECONOMIC
CHANNELS INDIA – THE SIDEWAYS ACTION CONTINUES

ROMANIA
WAVES.ROM – KEY REVERSAL BAR STANDS FIRM
CHANNELS BVB – MID ECONOMIC
BETFI- READY FOR A MULTI WEEK PUSH DOWN
THIS IS ROMANIA, SENTIMENT DOES NOT WORK HERE
CHANNELS BVB – LATE ECONOMIC STARTS TO EXHAUST
CHANNELS BVB – EARLY ECONOMIC CONTINUES TO STAGNATE

GLOBAL
GOLD INDIA DIVERGENCE
BLAMING IT ON SHANGHAI
WAVES.FOREX – EURUSD PRIMARY CYCLE DOWN
NATURAL GAS – PRICES ARE STARTING THE 3/C WAVE UP
GOLD 1000 IS HERE
WAVES.GLOBAL – SUB ZERO ROC

FORUM UPDATES

Author: Orpheus | Date: 07 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: The Orpheus Newsletter

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ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH

WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 07 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Tags: sensex, waves

Categories: India

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DOW CYCLES continue to non confirm and are near key neckline.

After making a large open gap, Indian SENSEX seems to be completing a five legged ending diagonal structure. This is a larger reversal pattern and suggests a crash like situation ahead. NIKKEI momentum continue to witness divergence suggesting exhaustion.

IRTS has a SELL ON ROC as the indicator moves sub zero. ROC is a non banded momentum indicator, which oscillates around the zero line. Conventionally above zero levels on ROC is a BUY signal and sub zero are SELL signals. We have illustrated a historical case on ROC for IRTS. The indicator captured most of the large trends.

CAC and FTSE cycles also continue to point lower. Overall the global indices continue to remain weak. It’s too early for us to look for a sustained upside. We remain negative on global equity indices.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GLOBAL

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ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.GLOBAL is a perspective product published on Monday. The report highlights top GLOBAL indices and emerging market indices viz. Dow Jones Industrial (.DJI), S&P 500 (.GSPC), German DAX (.GDAXI), Russian IRTS (.IRTS), Shanghai Composite (.SSEC), Nikkei 225 (.N225), Brazil BOVESPA (.BVSP), Indian Sensex (.BSESN). The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers and market trends.

REUTERS RICS: .BVSP, .IRTS, .FCHI, .GDAXI, .GSPC, .DJI, .N225, .SSEC, .BSESN

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 07 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Tags: ROC, waves

Categories: Global Indices

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We have been on positive territory on Gold from 900 levels.

This is what we said on 22 Jun.

Only sub 900, the large negativity begins. Till then we are not ruling out another final impending leg up.

What happened? 980 was tested and Prices pushed up to an intra day high at 997. This is just 3 dollars short of the key psychological levels. Our preferred view is still not looking at a major up move sizably higher that 1000. Alternate view on the other hand could see prices push up till 1100. Weekly RSI support at 40 suggest continued positivity.

Other metals like Platinum are also in ongoing corrective structure pointing to a final leg higher. Despite a hanging man formation, Palladium prices have not reversed yet. Minor trend remains up. Uranium has a non confirming RSI and continues to suggest that a large primary bottoming is in place. Aluminum is making down wedges which suggest a higher resolution higher before anything and Steel seems to be moving in a corrective 4 wave structure.

The metals complex remain at key inflexion points, but the historical event to watch still remains the GOLD 1000 test.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GOLD

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WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL

Author: Orpheus | Date: 07 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Tags: gold, waves

Categories: Metals

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BETFI RETURN LINE IS BACK IN POSITIVE. BETFI EXHAUSTION IS KEY FOR A SUSTAINED REVERSAL. BRD AND ERSTE REUTRN LINES ARE STILL BELOW PREVIOUS HIGHS. ON THE PAIR SIDE, MAJORITY OF PAIRS ARE IN POSITIVE TERRITORY.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only and short only strategy product based on TIME fractals.  Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

TIME ARBITRAGE portfolio has five pairs now viz. BRD-BET, BETXT-SNP, SIF2-SIF5, BRD-BETXT, BET-SNP. The above tracker will be updated on a daily basis. The freshly opened trades will have the shortest holding periods. The type of trade will be depicted in the degree i.e. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 4% per traded pair. BRD/BET means LONG BRD, SHORT BET. This also means +A-B. When the pair inverts to BET/BRD, it would mean SHORT BRD, LONG BET meaning -A+B.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers SIF2, SIF5, BRD, ERST, TGN. BET, BETFI, BETNG, BETXT, SNP.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 07 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: Romanian Pairs and Assets

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SIF1 WEEKLY. After making open gaps, prices are still retesting previous highs. We need a clear break here to look for sustained positivity. SIF 2 WEEKLY. Weekly emotional gaps and retest of previous highs keeps us cautious before looking for a sustained rise. Gaps on large time frames suggest buyers are more emotional than decisive. SIF3 DAILY
The ongoing leg crosses key 0.618 projections and remains positive. Key levels to watch lie at 0.5854. SIF 4 WEEKLY (INVERTED). Inverted price structure suggests a head and shoulder reversal patterns. A clear break down here would be a sustained change in trend. SIF 5 DAILY. Prices reach key Fibonacci projection. We need a clear break here to look up till 1.44. BRD DAILY. Moving average crossover is negative. ERSTE DAILY ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED. Sideways action continues. BANCA TRANSILVANIA DAILY (TLV) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED. Prices are still below moving average crossover. A break here would suggest another 30% leg higher. We will wait for some price confirmation before looking higher. The move up happened.

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CHANNELS.BVB is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and focuses on stocks more than Indices. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.ROM and CHANNELS.ROM are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers just BVB stocks all mid cap and small cap.

CHANNELS.BVB on MONDAY covers the Early Economic Sector cycle including Financials and Discretionary sector stocks.

REUTERS RIC – (BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, BRKU.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF5.BX, BCCA.BX, ASAG.BX, FLAA.BX, EFOR.BX, TUFE.BX, SIPA.BX, ELBU.BX, ERST.BX, IMPT.BX)

CHANNELS.BVB on WEDNESDAY covers the Mid Economic Sector cycle including INDUSTRIALS sector stocks.

REUTERS RIC – (TUBU.BX, SOCC.BX, ARTM.BX, ARSB.BX, SNOS.BX, ALTC.BX, ARMA.BX, CMLF.BX, MEFI.BX, EPUT.BX, ETAC.BX, UAMT.BX, COMPA.BX, APOM.BX, MECF.BX, COMI.BX)

CHANNELS.BVB on FRIDAY covers the Late Economic Sector cycle including Energy, Staples, Pharma, Utilities and Chemicals sector stocks. REUTERS RIC – (SNPP.BX, ROMP.BX, OILT.BX, PTRI.BX, PEXI.BX, ENPL.BX, TSEL.BX, MOPN.BX, BERS.BX, ALUM.BX, OLTC.BX, ALRO.BX, OTSP.BX, AMSL.BX, AZOM.BX, VNCA.BX, PPLS.BX, MJMR.BX, SIZA.BX, CBCM.BX, ZIMC.BX, PCLR.BX, ATBE.BX, SCDB.BX, BIOF.BX, DAFR.BRQ)

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 07 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: Romania

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NSEBANK RETURN LINE

The time triads model trades nearly 1/3 of the time. This automatically reduces drawdown’s compared to a conventional system which is in the market all the time. NSEBANK after an initial choppy action is back in positive territory and sub minor counts suggest possibility of a leg up till 7600. We also have a running positive view on SBI. We continue to hold our longs on HLL and SBI. CNXIT on the other hand continues to top it’s performance against NIFTY.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only and short only strategy product based on TIME fractals.  Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

TIME ARBITRAGE portfolio has five pairs now viz. Reliance – Nifty, CNXIT-Nifty, TCS-Nifty, CNXIT-Infosys, Nifty-ONGC. The above tracker will be updated on a daily basis. The freshly opened trades will have the shortest holding periods. The type of trade will be depicted in the degree i.e. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 4% per traded pair. CNXIT/INFOSYS means LONG CNXIT, SHORT INFOSYS. This also means +A-B. When the pair inverts to INFOSYS/CNXIT, it would mean SHORT CNXIT, LONG INFOSYS meaning -A+B.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers NIFTY, CNXIT, NSEBANK, RELIANCE, INFOSYS, ONGC, CIPLA, ICICI BANK, HDFC BANK, TISCO.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications.  *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 07 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: Indian Pairs and Assets

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