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Archive for September 27th, 2009

CHANNELS.INDIA – Early economic sector turns down

TCS WEEKLY. Shooting star is negative. WIPRO DAILY. Key reversal bar is negative. BHARTI WEEKLY. Engulfing reversal is bearish and negative. RELIANCE COM 60MIN. Prices seem to be moving in a corrective countertrend which could resolve lower. SBI WEEKLY. Small body candle suggest indecision. INFOSYS WEEKLY. Prices make engulfing bearish candle suggesting negativity and intermediate reversal. HDFC BANK DAILY. Prices make a hanging man suggesting caution if not reversal. ICICI BANK WEEKLY. Small body candles suggest indecision. DLF WEEKLY. Key reversal bar resistance continues to hold. We have no positive signal here. HDFC WEEKLY. We have no negative reversal signal here yet.

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CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 27 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: India

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ALPHA.INDIA – READY FOR A TURN!!

Last few trading days saw a drop in performance on not only individual assets but also top pair performances. CNXIT vs. NIFTY broke down a key return line support and suggest that the best of CNXIT is behind us. Performers lead in a market trend and an underperformance is not necessarily a positive trend. NSEBANK another outperformer also witnessed a drop in returns from 20% since recommendation to the current 14%. Whether these peaking performances do lead to an eventual reversal remains to be seen. Now the portfolio is just running BHEL. We are out of most of our long positions. The latest report carries the historical tracker. Watch our for fresh signals even if it is -A and remember 4% is a precious stop loss level, whether you are buying or selling.

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ALPHA is a pair trading, long only and short only strategy product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

TIME ARBITRAGE portfolio has five pairs now viz. Reliance – Nifty, CNXIT-Nifty, TCS-Nifty, CNXIT-Infosys, Nifty-ONGC. The above tracker will be updated on a daily basis. The freshly opened trades will have the shortest holding periods. The type of trade will be depicted in the degree i.e. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 4% per traded pair. CNXIT/INFOSYS means LONG CNXIT, SHORT INFOSYS. This also means +A-B. When the pair inverts to INFOSYS/CNXIT, it would mean SHORT CNXIT, LONG INFOSYS meaning -A+B.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers NIFTY, CNXIT, NSEBANK, RELIANCE, INFOSYS, ONGC, CIPLA, ICICI BANK, HDFC BANK, TISCO.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 27 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: Indian Pairs and Assets

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The Numeric Ranking

Just like performance cycles, time triads are the basis for numeric ranking.

Are you upset that you bought HDFC Bank when SBI moved up, you bought Caterpillar but GE delivered, in March 2009 low you put your bets on Nifty but the CNX IT outperformed blue chips by 40 per cent. That was for buyers; let’s talk about sellers now. Should I sell stronger assets, or the weaker ones?

Now that natural gas has outperformed crude oil by 25 per cent since June 15, should I sell natural gas or oil? Has Infosys topped? “Should I book profits selling Infosys or is a short better on CNX IT?”

Entry and exit

These questions are of high concern both for individuals and institutional investors. If there was a numeric ranking system investing decisions could become easier.

The system will reduce the confusion regarding the performance and this dispels the emotional suffering of missing the bus, that is entry and exit blues. “Why did I not enter, exit or vice-versa?” One would also realise how weak the conventional fundamental systems are. Not many fundamental systems told us that the equity bear had a sweet tooth. It was consuming sugar and chocolates while global investors were reeling under recession. Both sugar and cocoa are at multi-year highs.

Ranking them

Socionomists can explain why sugar and cocoa rose while equity was cracking. Coca Cola zero is a bull market, fitness crazy, societal trend. What socionomists did not do was a numeric ranking. March 2008 till March 2009 was time to go long sugar, short equity.

So what is numeric ranking all about? Numeric ranking (NR) is about being able to pinpoint performers and performance in a numeric way. What is the number one and the worst (30th) stock of the Dow? A few readers may now think “what’s new here?” the novelty is time, connecting NR with time.

Time horizon and assets

Top 10 or Top 30 could change if we keep altering the holding period variable. How long do you want to hold your assets in your portfolio? As one moves from the day traders’ eighteen minutes holding period to the Warren Buffet holding period of multiple years, NR of the assets will vary. So just mentioning that Wal-Mart is a top performer does not mean anything if you don’t mention the respective holding periods for the stock.

NR also needs a top-down approach. The ranking could start from a segregation of asset classes. Is equity ranked higher compared to commodities till end of 2009?

Assuming it is a yes though (it does not seem so), the starting point will be from broad sectors that is NR of sectors. For illustration let’s give technology (1), banking (2), Nifty Blue Chip (3), metals (4), staples (5), pharma (6), industrials (7), utilities (8), oil & gas (9) and the broader market (10). After NR of sector we go to the sector component and do the ranking again. If we take three top sectors and 3 top stocks from each we have a nine-stock portfolio. Since the ranking is dynamic and based on ten to thirty-day holding period, the top three sectors will change and along with it your nine stock selection, every two three weeks.

A portfolio based on NR

What drives NR? Remember performance cycles? The cyclicality between performers and underperformers is fractalled. So if we know your preferred holding period we can design your NR portfolio.

Time triads can numeric rank not only assets but many socionomic trends also. The research on time is limitless, entry and exit is just a beginning.

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT TIME.TRIADS.280909

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Author: Mukul PAL | Date: 27 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: Forecasts

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Orpheus report makes it to Reuter's top 10

http://updates.orpheus.asia/wp-content/up_files/2009/09/Todays-Top-10-Reuters.pdf

Author: Orpheus | Date: 27 September 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: News

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WAVES.FOREX – EURUSD INTERMEDIATE (MULTI WEEK) TOP IS HERE

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WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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