The pair performance cycle between Grasim vs. L&T has reached a low and suggests a turn around. This means Grasim should outperform L&T now. Performance pair cycles isolates extreme divergences between highly correlated and similar sector peers too. We have illustrated the backtested results of the pair. The tendency has changed in favor of Grasim now.  The latest ALPHA.INDIA carries the top performance and pair performance cycles with the latest numeric ranking for stocks and sector Indices. Enjoy the latest ALPHA.INDIA.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals.  Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

TIME ARBITRAGE portfolio has 18 pairs CNXIT-NIFTY, RELIANCE-NIFTY, TCS-NIFTY, ONGC-NIFTY, INFOSYS-CNXIT, ONGC-RELIANCE, HDBK-ICBK, BHEL-ACC, GRAS-LNT, HLL-ITC, SBI-HDFC, NIFTY-STERLITE, NIFTY-HDBK, SBI-NIFTY, BHEL-NIFTY, NIFTY-ACC, TCS-CNXIT and SBI-HDBK. Minor degree averaged 10-30 days and intermediate degree trade averages above 30 days. The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 4% per traded pair. CNXIT/INFOSYS +A-B means LONG CNXIT, SHORT INFOSYS.  While CNXIT/INFOSYS –A+B means SHORT CNXIT,  LONG INFOSYS.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers NIFTY, CNXIT, NSEBANK, RELIANCE, INFOSYS, ONGC, CIPLA, ICICI BANK, HDFC BANK, TISCO,  BHEL, ACC, GRASIM, L&T, HLL, ITC, SBI, HDFC,  STERLITE

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver?  Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

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ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

Author: Orpheus | Date: 29 November 2009 | Comments (1)

Categories: Indian Pairs and Assets

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

SUMMARY: DLF DAILY (DLF) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED As anticipated, prices continued to push lower till key levels at 330. Sub respective levels we should get more negative confirmation. ICICI BANK WEEKLY (ICBK) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED Prices continued to push lower till near psychological 800 levels as anticipated. Minor trend remains negative. STATE BANK OF INDIA DAILY (SBI) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED As anticipated, prices continued to push lower in the C/3 wave down. Key levels lie at 2,120. HDFC BANK DAILY (HDBK) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED As anticipated, prices turn back from key resistance levels near psychological 1,800. The impulse up seems complete. UNITECH DAILY (UNTE) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED Prices continued to push lower till key supports at 73 levels. We need a clear break sub respective levels to continue to look lower.

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CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

Author: Orpheus | Date: 29 November 2009 | Comments (0)

Tags: channels

Categories: Accuracy India, Anticipated and Happened, India

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

What does it mean if a stock nears top ranking among its peers, like Chevron is doing now among the top 11 energy and utility assets in the world? (The stock moved up a place higher from last week and is at the second spot now). It means that Chevron’s best performance is behind and not very far in future the energy major should start underperforming the rest of its peers. We carried Long Gazprom, Short Chevron case last time. This time the pair performance cycle Chevron – Verbund is in the spotlight. Chevron is a DOW 30 blue chip and Verbund is a Utility major from Austria. The pair performance cycle has reached a top and should turn lower. This means Long Verbund – Short Chevron is a pair to watch. According to us the idea of performance is cyclical, which means that the best performer will underperform in the future and vice versa. We have carried comparative numeric ranking between energy companies and energy indices. The rankings include companies from India, America, Austria, Russia, Romania. IPNG, the natural gas index is the top performer and potentially least on allocation for us. While Russian Gazprom still is the worst performer over the quarter and remains potentially the best regional stock to allocate. Apart from the absolute rankings the latest ALPHA.ENERGY illustrates performance cycles among energy companies. There are other interesting trends that one can observe. Gazprom should outperform Chevron, VERB and XLE. IPNG should underperform XLE, while NATGAS should outperform XLE (SPDR). Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ENERGY.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals.  Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

ASSETS COVERED : Natural Gas, Gazprom, Verb, OMV, Reliance, ONGC (India), XLE (SPDR), Chevron (USA), Exxon (USA) , Petrom (Romania)

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver?  Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

Author: Orpheus | Date: 29 November 2009 | Comments (0)

Categories: Energy Pairs and Assets

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA