5181 – A puissant barrier (Papa bear getting ready for a big howl)

The Couple of narrow trading range is suggestive of no real buying pressure near the clog of 5181. Again, yesterday we saw the level of 5181, acting as a strong blockage for the second time in the span of last 30 odd days, which has brought the possibility of double top into the picture. Nifty, which is facing the resistance of both weekly and daily upper Bollinger band, with weekly momentum cycle completely into the grip of the bears is showing signs of sluggishness, near 61.8% retracement level of the entire fall from the top of 6358. Going further, the two consecutive Dojis (the indecisive candles) on daily chart and that too near the strong hurdle of 5181 is again a sign of exhaustion. So this time the break of 20-DSMA (nailed at 5035) and 50-DEMA (nailed at 4950) will trigger the next round of selling, which every bear was dreaming of. In that scenario my alternate wave count (Bearish one) will take precedence over the preferred one. The hourly face of Nifty is also bearish as momentum cycles have already given a fresh sell triggers with reversal patterns being formed on intraday charts.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 04 December 2009 | Comments (1)

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SUMMARY: RELIANCE WEEKLY. Formation looks like a completed flat preparing to push higher. ONGC MONTHLY. Key resistances continue to hold firm. CIPLA QUARTERLY. Prices could head higher. RANBAXY WEEKLY. Key resistances come in at 550. NTPC DAILY. Short term push down can not be ruled out. ITC WEEKLY. Resistances ahead remain unbroken.

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Author: Mukul PAL | Date: 04 December 2009 | Comments (0)

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MONTHLY PERSPECTIVE. SUMMARY: TRANSELECTRICA MONTHLY (TEL) Sideways intermediary movement continues. A break at the key level at 13.5 could take prices higher. TRANSGAZ MONTHLY (TGN) After a multi month sideways movement prices are at key level at 165. A break here would mean further positivity. SINTEZA WEEKLY (STZ) Prices do not manage to cross the key level at 3. For further positivity prices should remain above key 0.618 FIB level at 3. OLTCHIM MONTHLY (OLT) Though monthly moving average crossover is positive, prices are in an intermediary donw trend. A break at 0.22 could take prices lower. PETROL EXPORTIMPORT WEEKLY (PEI) Prices form a HAMMER signaling a potential positive turn. DAFORA MONTHLY (DAFR) Prices continue the sideways movement above key level at 0.1, inside the multi month rising channel. For intermediary positivity this level should not be broken. ROMPETROL MONTHLY (RRC) Prices turn from the key level at 0.07, but remain in the annual rising channel. A breach at 0.06 would take prices lower .PETROM MONTHLY (SNP) Prices continue the sideways multi month movement inside the rising annual channel. The monthly moving average crossover is positive. For intermediary positivity ahead prices should remain above key level at 0.25. ANTIBIOTICE MONTHLY (ATB) Although the monthly moving average crossover is positive, prices are in an intermediary down trended trend. ZENTIVA MONTHLY (SCD) Prices test the key level at 0.7. A break of this level would continue intermediary positivity.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 04 December 2009 | Comments (0)

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