SUMMARY: IDEA DAILY (IDEA) We need a clear break above key 62 levels to look for further upside. BHARTI DAILY (BRTI) The current sideways action should end soon as the third leg up unfolds. Key levels lie at 347. MAHANAGAR DAILY (MTNL) Anticipated and happened The third wave up continues to extend higher to key resistance levels at 95. TATA MOTORS DAILY (TAMO) Anticipated and happened Prices bounced back from key supports at previous fourth levels. Above respective levels the subminor trend remains positive. ASHOK DAILY (ASOK) Anticipated and happened Prices are heading to a retest of previous highs at key 56 levels. HAPPENED. Moving average crossover is still positive. LARSEN DAILY (LART) The current structure looks like a corrective which should push lower till key supports at 1,600-1,590 before anything. Performance cycles are still bottoming.

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‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 19 January 2010 | Comments (0)

Tags: channels

Categories: Accuracy India, Anticipated and Happened, India

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This is the third year in a row we have delivered above 70% accuracy. After we got the Mar 09 low, Tech Reversal, BSE metals buy, buy despite terror attacks, 79% accuracy should not surprise. Moreover, the move up from Mar 09 low till May 09 high was one way. We admit that the move from May 09 onwards was tricky. We have not witnessed such large corrective formations. Time is always new and original, there is never a same time, though it (time) could be similar. Despite the confusions around May 09, how did we come out unscathed? The rules are very simple. Never fall in love with a forecast and be fast to admit a mistake. The earlier we expect that market is doing something other than what we expect it do, faster we can understand the next intermediate trend. This approach helped us not to question the unrelenting rocket in technology. This kept us on the broader trend.

There is another thing we would like to mention. Markets have infinite alpha, if systems could trade every tick. But owing to liquidity, costs, slippages and effort, alpha seems finite. Markets were up 70% for the year, but one could have traded up legs and down legs and generated more than 70% net gains. The quest to gain more has a tradeoff. The more alpha one tries to generate, the more error prone the work gets. Behaviorologists don’t agree that traders, fund managers, researchers can generate more than the market return. Last two years, we generated more than the net market returns. This time we targeted an absolute move of 83% and manage to capture 66%. This was the same as the market return.

We have measured accuracy on intermediate time forecasts. All Waves India reports mention levels. It’s the levels, which judge how accurate we are. We have pulled out the levels along with the trends and compared forecasted with actual. An average actual intermediate move was 8% large. The market letter captured average 5% of the 8% move. This gives us an accuracy of 79% for the year. We have detailed out the reports, the dates, the Sensex levels and have tabulated all of them in a tracker.

Enjoy the India Accuracy report.

ACCURACY.INDIA.REPORT.20110.PART-I

ACCURACY.INDIA.REPORT.20110.PART-II

ACCURACY.INDIA.REPORT.20110.PART-III

ACCURACY.INDIA.REPORT.20110.PART IV

ACCURACY.INDIA.REPORT.20110.PART-V

*Waves.India will not be published this week on Thursday.

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‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH

WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

ORPHEUS STORE

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 19 January 2010 | Comments (1)

Tags: accuracy, waves

Categories: Accuracy India, India

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Question: Are American and Indian markets sleeping?
Answer: Yes they are because in the last 20 days indices have moved a marginal 1%.

Question: How can we define sleeping markets statistically and psychologically?
Answer: Low volatility is a statistical way to explain the lackluster nature of the market. Low volatility is seen across global equity today. Low volatility is a sign of complacency that the worst is over. “Now we really can’t get back into the crisis”. “Crisis is behind us”. These are the inflexion points where markets face a surprise as volatility rises.

Question: One could say that Romanian markets are not sleeping as there is no volatility indicator?
Answer: Incorrect. Reuters has a statistical volatility indicator. A similar behavior like India and America, low volatility is happening in Romania too.

Question: How can one explain the market view based on the above volatility stats?
Answer: If volatility is about market activity, complacency and about cyclical statistics (after low volatility comes highs volatility) then the rise from Mar 09 low to nearly Feb 10 makes the current leg 11 month old. After 11 months complacency and drop in market activity cannot be considered positive. It is indecision. After low volatility comes high volatility and rise in volatility is generally a sign of fear not confidence. In conclusion we are heading into a time of rising volatility and exhaustion of the trend from Mar 09.

Romananian Statistical Volatility touches base

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 19 January 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: Volatility

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WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 19 January 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: Romania

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BRD closed its pair trades against BETXT and BET on 4 Jan and 24 Dec respectively. Both the pairs delivered above 30% return in 175 calendar days. This means an annualized performance of more than 60%. The SNP pairs are still running. SNP is underperforming both BETXT and BET for more than 100 days now. The pairs against SNP have delivered an average 18% over the running duration. This means 75% annualized returns till date. TGN, SIF2, SIF5 were a few of the top potential outperformers we mentioned in our 5 Jan update.

In the update we said “Performance cycles suggest that top performers of today will underperform and vice versa. So TLV the top performer of today is expected to underperform in the time ahead while TGN should outperform”.

TGN is up 15% since 6 Jan. SIF2 and SIF5 are up 12% and 13% respectively. The latest alpha also carries the new numeric rankings for BETXT stocks.  Enjoy the latest Alpha Romania.

Portfofolio -I

Portofolio – II

Actualizare Strategie – I

Actualizare Strategie – II

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles

Alpha is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time Arbitrage portfolio has five pairs now viz. BRD-BET, BETXT-SNP, SIF2-SIF5, BRD-BETXT, BET-SNP. The above tracker will be updated on a daily basis. The freshly opened trades will have the shortest holding periods. Minor degree averaged 10-30 days and intermediate degree trade averages above 30 days. The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 2% per traded pair. SIF2/SIF5 +A-B means LONG SIF2, SHORT SIF5. While SIF2/SIF5 –A+B means SHORT SIF2, LONG SIF5.

Coverage: SIF2, SIF5, SIF4, BRD, ERSTE, TGN, BETI, BETFI, BETNG, BETXT, SNP, DAFORA, TERAPLAST, ATB, BIO, BCC

Stop loss and Exits are activated at 4%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 19 January 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: Romanian Pairs and Assets

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