This is the excerpt of the brief presentation made by Mukul on the SIBEX 15 year anniversary.
Q: Is Dow connected to Romanian Bet?
A: Performance connects everything including DOW and BET.
Q: Does this performance move?
A: Yes it does. From 7 July 2009, Dow moves up from 10 ranking to 4, BET moves down from 4 ranking to 11, Fastest Positive Changes Hong Kong, Fastest Negative Changes Sensex India.
Q: Is this performance cyclical?
A: Yes it is. The illustration below shows how Dow outperforms and undeperforms against Romanian Bet.
Q: Can one arbitrage and profit from this performance cycle?
A: Yes. The strategy between DOW and BET delivered 31% (71 days) and 15% (112 days) from June 2008.
ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
COVERAGE: BVSP (Brazil), IRTS (Russia), Sensex (India), DOW (US), DAX (Germany), CAC (France), Nikkei (Japan), Hang Seng (Hong Kong) .
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Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.
Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.
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