Archive for November 16th, 2010

The Benner Prophecy



Benner’s model of ‘Time’ predicts a mini crash in 2011, a boom till 2019 and a depression in 2021. He was the first one to talk about hierarchal ‘Time’ in 1875.

Benner Samuel was a farmer from Ohio who wrote his prophecies in a book about price fluctuations in 1875. The 19th century was also the time of Laplacian probability, Gaussian distributions, Peano curves and Cantor set. While mathematicians were looking for structures in mathematics, Benner was studying and writing about a model of ‘Time’ to forecast the future.

Benner lived in an era of Axe Houghton Indices, the time when Chicago Board of Trade was established and agricultural commodity trading was active business. Society was busy with agriculture and expanding railroads. This is why his workings were based on pig iron, corn, cotton and hogs. Along with agriculture came the essential science of weather forecasting. What years would be dry or wet? When we may expect years of heat, storm an cold? Agricultural statistics was compiled and used to establish demand and supply patterns. It was then 135 years back Benner wrote that the future cannot be calculated based on agricultural statistics. Statistics compilation according to him would remain always poor, irregular, manipulable, undependable and non predictive.

This was the reason he focused on history…

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


Alpha.Rom – BETFI below 18000?

BETFI. Alternate view suggests that prices could break 18,000 because of a few reasons. First the move up from Mar 2009 lacks a clear five wave structure. Second, the third wave is the shortest. Third, the overall structure is overlapping. This could be a great opportunity for value buyers. Sub 18,000 BETFI is a great purchase.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).

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