Archive for November 30th, 2010

The Index Rieki

Index Rieki depicts the performance cyclicality of an Index. Just like a stock outperforms and underperforms, so does an index witness seasonality in performance. The difference between an Index Rieki and stock Rieki is that an Index is an average of stock prices and hence is less volatile than the stock. This is the reason an Index Rieki will rarely go to extreme ranking like (best or worst).
Rieki works like an oscillator. A falling oscillator is negative suggesting underperformance and vice versa. Rieki oscillators can be studied like conventional momentum indicators. We can look for non confirmations, head and shoulder patterns, supports and resistance.

The latest Alpha carries the anticipated and happened cases on Hungarian BUX and Stoxx Euro 50 (Ticks. Global). Now ATX and Czech PX are ready to reverse. Dollar Index is running positive both on LOSO and Rieki. CEERIUS Index is already negative and with a topping Rieki suggests further negative confirmation. We don’t have an encouraging picture on most equity indices including the local Romanian indices. BETNG has a topping Rieki and negative LOSO. We continue to look at negativity underperformance for the respective index.

The Alpha 54 coverage includes the following equity and commodity Indices. Hungarian BUX, Dow Jones Industrials, Bulgarian REITs, Stoxx Euro 50, Polish WIG, Austrian ATX, Czech PX, Gold and Silver Index, Dollar Index, Natural Gas Index and Brent Crude.

The latest Alpha carries the anticipated and happened cases on Hungarian BUX and Stoxx Euro 50 (Ticks. Global). Now ATX and Czech PX are ready to reverse. Dollar Index is running positive both on LOSO and Rieki. CEERIUS Index is already negative and with a topping Rieki suggests further negative confirmation. We don’t have an encouraging picture on most equity indices including the local Romanian indices. BETNG has a topping Rieki and negative LOSO. We continue to look at negativity underperformance for the respective index.

The Alpha Romania 54 coverage includes the following equity and commodity Indices. Hungarian BUX, Dow Jones Industrials, Bulgarian REITs, Stoxx Euro 50, Polish WIG, Austrian ATX, Czech PX, Gold and Silver Index, Dollar Index, Natural Gas Index and Brent Crude.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


Alpha India Indices – Sector ranking

The minor view on the overall market remains negative with a potential subminor correction up now that prices reached first key Fibonacci supports. NIFTY is heading towards our anticipated targets at 5,600-5,400 levels. NIFTY VIX seems to be in an ongoing Ending Diagonal formation, while INR continues to hold anticipated 46 resistances.

BSE Consumer Durables and NIFTY VIX remain the two extremities of the sector numeric ranking. BSE Auto, Healthcare, FMCG should underperform in the next weeks, while BSE Realty, BSE Metals, BSE Power and INR Futures are best buys.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: 100 top traded stocks and Indian Indices.

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Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009