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Now that prices have reached our anticipated target at 18,000 and we are heading into event risk or event volatility, it makes sense to review the complex unwinding Sensex price structure. If 18,000 is broken Sensex is just going to slide lower into 13,500. However, this seems very obvious, as a support breaks and prices fall to a new lower support. For a technician the harder task is to comprehend what is not obvious. Putting in other words to understand where the surprise is going to come from is as important as the path of least resistance.

This is why an alternate view is significant just like the Elliott preferred view. So now that we have stated the preferred view. Let’s discuss the eventuality that Sensex 18,000-17,500 holds for a multi week period. In such a situation we have to look at the larger picture. The larger picture for us, as we mentioned prior in ‘The Primary Corrective’ is a cycle degree flat. We think the large B primary is over and now we are in a C down. Remember it’s the C waves that are the fastest and most damaging. There are advantages of a C also, it’s a trending move compared to the complexity and overlapping behavior of A and B waves. Finally we just might get to see some trend, after the complexity and deviousness of B primary wave from Mar 2009…

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