Hindalco Weekly. The intermediate structure looks like a potential head and shoulders reversal pattern. Prices look ready to break neckline and trendline supports near psychological 200 levels. A break here would push prices lower towards our intermediate target at 140 levels.

Tisco Weekly. The intermediate price structure looks like a potential head and shoulders reversal pattern. Prices have broken the intermediate trend channel supports and look ready to break neckline supports at 580 levels. Sub respective supports we are looking lower till previous lows at 470 levels.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 05 May 2011 | Comments (0)

Tags: alpha, India, LE

Categories: India, Research Updates

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The name Friday comes from the Old English Frīġedæġ, meaning the “day of Frige”. The same holds for Frīatag in Old High German, Freitag in Modern German and Vrijdag in Dutch.

The idea of patterns and order is used conveniently by behavioural finance to challenge conventional economics. But the question of why that order exists has not been researched.

Last time, we mentioned how behavioural finance used the idea of mean reversion to prove that classical economics idea of order and randomness were inconsistent. The new subject went all the way to prove this inconsistency and illustrate that extreme losers outperformed the extreme winners consistently.

During my lecture on behavioural finance at the Babes Bolyai University in Cluj (named after János Bolyai, the famous Hungarian mathematician who established non-Euclidean geometry in 1860, and Victor Babes, one of the early bacteriologists), I was questioned if patterns worked, then one should focus on finding that pattern.The question was genuine, but behavioural finance does not give an answer to this. On one side, it uses the idea of seasonality to challenge economics, while on the other side, it does not give a pattern solution. The subject somehow avoids the idea of seasonality totally, preferring to concentrate on explaining human follies than on other working patterns in markets. Is this not an inconsistency in behavioral finance?

I was discussing this gap in behavioral finance research with Dr Nistor, with whom I had authored the idea of performance cyclicality and showcased seasonality among BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries’ performance in 2007. We were wondering was the idea of seasonality and time tough to deal with? When inter-temporal choices clearly presented itself to behavioural finance experts, why did not they talk about the idea of ‘time’ more? Was it a tougher road to take talking about patterns when the subject had a charted path to illustrate error-prone human decision making? Well, we don’t know why behavioural finance research credits cyclicality as an existing phenomenon but does not go further?

In 1931, M J Fields from Harvard wrote a paper on weekend effect in the journal of business. The paper was investigating the conventional Wall Street wisdom at the time that “the unwillingness of traders to carry their holdings over the uncertainties of a weekend leads to the liquidation of the long accounts and a consequent decline of security prices on Saturday”. He found prices not only rose on Saturdays but also were on average 52 per cent time more than the Friday to Monday average for the 717 weekends he had studied.
Till 1945, Saturday used to be a trading day. Fields’ idea was revisited by Frank Cross in 1973, who found that in S&P500, there were 60 per cent positive Fridays, but only 40 per cent positive Mondays. Cross said, “The probability that such a large difference would occur by chance is less than one in million”. This is known as the weekend effect, which talks about strange order. This order is thoroughly used to challenge randomness in classical economics, but the question why this order in time works is unanswered by behavioural finance.

This article was written for Business Standard

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Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 05 May 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: Psychology, Time Triads

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