The half yearly ranking of Indian Indices (table) suggests we have still lower to go and Indian markets are not out the woods yet. Bank Nifty, BSE REAL, CNX100, Nifty VIX and BSEPOWER are the worst ranking assets giving signs of outperformance as they revert from worst performance. However, rest of the sector indices like Capital Goods, Health Care, Consumer Durables, Oil & Gas, BSE500, CNXIT, FMACG, AUTO, Nifty, Sensex, BSE Small Cap, BSE Metals are still near 70% i.e. top performers among a group of global assets.

This means that weight of evidence is still pointing lower suggesting that Nifty 4,000 and Sensex 12,000 might very well still be in and the ongoing negativity could extend well into end of the year. BSE500 (broad market index) is also a top performer. This does not make for a positive market case. Nifty VIX stagnating at a low also calls for more panic and volatility moving ahead. Markets can’t go up if the cycles (time durations) are pointing lower for majority of the sector indices. Markets can only go up, if CNXIT, Pharmaceuticals, FMCG, Nifty fall more and head into neutral ground, while Banking, Small cap and metals join ….

This article was written for Business Standard

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 19 September 2011 | Comments (0)

Tags: alpha, India, indices

Categories: India, Research Updates

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When we say worst we talk about 1000 global assets. On a half yearly basis Broker has performed the worst among the group. A poorest performance pushes a stock into low ranking. And since the rankings keep changing we have a Jiseki cycle. The chart illustrated here showcases how BRK is struggling at the bottom attempting to move up. Now this is where the light at the end of the tunnel. If a company remains in the group and is below 20% statistically it has more than 60% chance to come back to growth and perform for its shareholders and contribute to market growth. There is another reason for BRK to be so low, brokerage companies deliver the least performance in a bad market. So if the stock market is down, brokerage companies need more than speculative strategies to hedge a stock market fall. A brokerage company that delivers in a falling market understands risk and manages it well. This does not seem to be the case for BRK. But nevertheless this is one stock that should shoot up when market is ready to reverse direction. And irrespective of the level of innovation that is the time BRK should be in your portfolio. Currently the financials still seem to be bottoming with a negative bias. We need further upmove to look for a sustained multi week reversal.

Enjoy the latest early economic report.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Romania: Romanian stocks, Indices and currency.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 19 September 2011 | Comments (0)

Tags: alpha, Romania

Categories: Alpha Romania, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA