Today’s report carries technical and cycle cases on two of the best performer Indian Auto stocks, BAJAJ AUTO and EICHER MOTORS. Both stocks are ranked above 90% extreme rankings and are top potential shorts for the weeks ahead.

The minor market view remains negative. Sub our anticipated current resistances at 5,200 levels we continue to expect a pending impulsive c circle wave down till 4,500-4,000 supports.

BAJAJ AUTO Daily. BAJAJ AUTO is the best performer Indian Auto stock. Both the price structure and the 3 months Jiseki cycle look topping (prices near previous intermediate highs, the cycle above 90% extreme rankings).

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 23 October 2011 | Comments (0)

Tags: alpha, EE, India

Categories: India, Research Updates

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Jiseki is a performance ranking idea for an asset in a group for different holding periods. Conventional tools don’t look at sectors as a proxy of a group but not components perse. Our idea of extreme reversion is designed to understand performance cyclicality.

This week we look at the Indian Energy sector correlation from Oct 2009 to 2011 and juxtapose it with change in quarterly performance rankings during that period. The correlation of the energy sector components was made with Reliance.

What we could observe? The higher the correlation of the stocks with the Reliance the worst the stocks did in performance and the lower the correlation of the stocks with Reliance the better they did in performance.

Petronet for example moved up 50% in Jiseki performance rankings during the period along with Castrol. While the high correlation and positive correlation stocks with reliance like Seamec, Suzlon saw not only a drop in rankings by 50% but also absolute price loss.

The connection of correlation with Jiseki change in rankings might seem strange. But it’s not because if Reliance is at the top of the group, it will underperform and because it’s a sector leader, anything correlated positively correlated with it will also underperform.

This is simple logic, which the data expresses visually. Does the data tell us something else? The histogram also tells us that the only stock which should have fallen and did not fall as much was Reliance. This is what we may call a sector leader’s premium, which keeps us away from Reliance as a buy opportunity confirming what we wrote recently in the article, “should I buy Reliance?”

Avinash Barnwal is a final year master student of Statistics and Informatics at IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  He has worked on marketing analytics for the Customer Intelligence Unit, HDFC Bank . Avinash is passionate about developing statistical models and believes that statistics could address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 23 October 2011 | Comments (2)

Categories: Analytics, Time Triads

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Human studyof scale invariant natural patterns invariably stops at Pareto exponentiality. US scholar Albert Bartlett pointed out the difficulty to grasp ramifications of exponential growth, stating: “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function”.

This paper summarizes the philosophy of Time Topology and builds a historical and statistical case to explain that just like patterns in natural systems even Time is patterned. This on one side looks plausible but on the other leads us to a critical Cartesian debate because Time is the common (x-axis) element against all the other natural (Y- axis) systems. Patterns can’t exist on both the Cartesian levels. This would mean that either Time (the only patterned element) gives (order and disorder) pattern to all natural systems or there is some other mysterious force or just patterns and no mystery (Mandelbrot).

Download the paper from SSRN

Author: Orpheus | Date: 23 October 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: Research Papers

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