The BRD Jiseki
Though SIFs went up, the banking sector has underperformed. We can understand non confirmation and large divergences between different stocks, but it’s rare that two segments of the same financial sector diverge consistently. The banking market leader BRD failed to bounce and is currently near previous lows at 10.5. The BRD Jiseki remains negative. All the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower. BRD is still at 55 percent rankings, which is still not a worst performer. We continue to look lower on BRD.
This as we pointed out is in sharp contrast to the non banking financial companies that have taken off. We already start hearing “bull” loud and clear. This when markets like India are reeling under negativity and there is no real price confirmations across the globe, the local excitement on non banking financial funds comes as a shock. We know there is a policy anticipation driving it. But do you really think this can change the course of the Romanian markets?
For us at Orpheus large multi-month, multi-year performance cycles discount causality. This also means that upmove on the SIFs (non banking financial sector) might still be a trading bounce and not a sustainable rally. For more on the multi month outlook of Romania Banks and SIF’s read the latest Alpha Romania.
Dr. Ionut Nistor is the co-author of Performance Cycles paper published in Kyoto Economics Journal. Ionut has been part of the core team that developed and nurtured the idea of Alpha products since July 2008. A real gentleman with a kind disposition, Ionut’s understanding of markets and finance comes from his decade long experience as a professor of Corporate Finance. Currently he is pursuing his post doctorate studies at Kobe University in Japan. He is fluent in Japanese, Romanian and English and plays multiple roles at Orpheus. He is the academic consultant for Orpheus, assisting us in taking many of our ideas to the academic world. He also handles Alpha Romania and Alpha Japan. You can follow his work on Time Triads, linia de trend blogs and soon on the SSRN (Social Science Research network).
The Bric Model from a Japanese Perspective
Ionut Nistor – Econohistory
Alpha Romania
Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.
Coverage: Central and Eastern Europe Indices, Romanian Indices and Stocks, BETXT, BETXT components, SIF5 Futures, DOW Jones
Author: Orpheus | Date: 20 November 2011 | Comments (0)
Categories: Alpha Romania, Research Updates
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