If there is one single problem with investing and trading, it is extreme trading. There is no bigger rushing than buying something that is rocketing up or panic selling at a low. Starting Apr 2011, Silver was at a multiyear extreme. The adrenaline rush we get at flipping the top is like a drug. This is why catching the top is a large trade vocation. The illusive always excites. Silver was a top ranked performer (with topping Jiseki cycles) among global assets for more than a few months, which suggested that the white metal would underperform along with the broad commodity sector. We raised a lot of caution on our blogs and thrice this year at ATMA (Association of Technical Market Analysts).

What happened? Silver moved to 50 and collapsed after that. Now it is 4 dollars from 25. This is a 50% retracement. I remember…

This article was written for Business Standard.

The latest Alpha carries a detailed technical case on INR and SILVER. You can download the report from the Orpheus e store.

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Senior Technical Analyst at Aditya Birla Money covering Indian Equity Markets. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 15 December 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

We at Orpheus reach a trade signal by filtering from a large universe of assets. These are the two kind of filters we have used to generate short ideas.

Filter One

1) We took the best 24 month performers above 80% percentile ranking. (LIST1)
2) We filtered them for falling Jiseki (LIST 2)
3) Then we ran a price filter. How many of LIST 2 assets were also below 20 day average.

This filter returned just one stock among CNX 100 stocks

Filter two

1)Take the best 24 month performers above 80% percentile ranking. (LIST1)
2)Take the LIST 1 and filter it for quarterly 80% percentile ranking. (LIST2)
3)Filter this for negative Jiseki (LIST 3)
4)Rank (LIST3) from nearest to farthest from Historical Highs. (LIST4)
5)Filter LIST 4 for top ranking sectors.

This filter also returned just one stock among CNX 100 stocks.

To read about the two trade signal ideas download the latest ALPHA India reports from the Orpheus e-store.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 15 December 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: Analytics, Indian Pairs and Assets, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA