The 2012 Low
I am positively biased about the 2012 Mayan end of the world time window. We are in an economic crisis of a lifetime, where finance itself is under attack. Inflation, destruction of real value of money, worst performance of stocks in a decade, volatility, higher food prices, exponential gold. Call it another coincidence but great Mayan timing, isn’t it? But why I am positive?
Lets first look at how we did in 2011. This is what we said on Jan 4 “We won’t be surprised if the Sensex erases 30 per cent (from the 2010 highs)”. 10 Feb 2011, “Saving the long-only trader – Markets are headed into a wall of worry. Tough to save the long-only trader.” 22 Feb, “The Objective System – We are not looking Nifty above 5,800 now.” March 29, “Sensex ready for negativity and another 15 per cent fall on the Sensex. The current up move of NSE’s Bank Nifty index should complete before 12,000 levels, after which the next down leg should begin.” 8 April, “India to continue underperformance against global peers.” May 13, “Top short ideas”. 18 October, “Why Should I not buy Reliance” 22 September. “Indian equity markets direction remains down Nifty 4,000 could extend well into the end of the year. We are looking lower for firmer and stronger bottoms.”
Markets retraced almost 30% from Nov 2010 highs. NSEBANK collapsed from 12000 levels. Most of our top short ideas delivered and Nifty reached 4,544 lows as we end 2011.
How will India perform in 2012?
This article was written for the Business Standard annual outlook.
Author: Orpheus | Date: 29 December 2011 | Comments (0)
Categories: India, Research Updates
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