If there is one single problem with investing and trading, it is extreme trading. There is no bigger rushing than buying something that is rocketing up or panic selling at a low. Starting Apr 2011, Silver was at a multiyear extreme. The adrenaline rush we get at flipping the top is like a drug. This is why catching the top is a large trade vocation. The illusive always excites. Silver was a top ranked performer (with topping Jiseki cycles) among global assets for more than a few months, which suggested that the white metal would underperform along with the broad commodity sector. We raised a lot of caution on our blogs and thrice this year at ATMA (Association of Technical Market Analysts).

What happened? Silver moved to 50 and collapsed after that. Now it is 4 dollars from 25. This is a 50% retracement. I remember…

This article was written for Business Standard.

The latest Alpha carries a detailed technical case on INR and SILVER. You can download the report from the Orpheus e store.

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Senior Technical Analyst at Aditya Birla Money covering Indian Equity Markets. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 15 December 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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We at Orpheus reach a trade signal by filtering from a large universe of assets. These are the two kind of filters we have used to generate short ideas.

Filter One

1) We took the best 24 month performers above 80% percentile ranking. (LIST1)
2) We filtered them for falling Jiseki (LIST 2)
3) Then we ran a price filter. How many of LIST 2 assets were also below 20 day average.

This filter returned just one stock among CNX 100 stocks

Filter two

1)Take the best 24 month performers above 80% percentile ranking. (LIST1)
2)Take the LIST 1 and filter it for quarterly 80% percentile ranking. (LIST2)
3)Filter this for negative Jiseki (LIST 3)
4)Rank (LIST3) from nearest to farthest from Historical Highs. (LIST4)
5)Filter LIST 4 for top ranking sectors.

This filter also returned just one stock among CNX 100 stocks.

To read about the two trade signal ideas download the latest ALPHA India reports from the Orpheus e-store.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 15 December 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: Analytics, Indian Pairs and Assets, Research Updates

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GUESS ME JISEKI (03) is Turmeric India.

The one above is SUGAR DELHI

Bet the first to get 3 of the 5 ‘Guess Me Jiseki’ correct a week and get a week of Orpheus Research for free.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 13 December 2011 | Comments (13)

Categories: Performance Cyclicality, Time Cycles, Time Triads

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Our statistical tests show that 24 month worst performers tend to outperform in the next 12 months. We have illustrated below the CNX100 worst 24 month losers. The current ALPHA carries the JISEKI and TECHNICAL update for the respective stocks.

The current report also carries an update on INDIA GOLD and SILVER.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 12 December 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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“Simplicity or singleness of approach is a greatly underestimated factor of market success.” Garfield Drew

This latest report we have carried…

To read the complete report download it from Orpheus E store.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 07 December 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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Philosophy of war is connected to psychology, timing and calculation of chance. Which can help both in life and markets. This work looks at SUN TZU’s timeless work from the perspective of life and markets.

Little has changed over two and a half millennia. People’s psychology can still be manipulated in the same ways. Mastering the market is still easy compared to mastering the mind. Assuming market or life is adept in the art of war, a lot of TZU’s work can be revisited. He said, “If you know the enemy (market) and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy (market), for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy (market) nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

The stronger opponent (market or life) feigns disorder, and crushes the weak. When weapons are dulled, ardor damped, strength exhausted and treasure spent, the stronger opponent (market or life) will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. None, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue. TZU also talks about haste. How it is unacceptable. He calls it the stupid haste in war (markets or life). There is instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare. A constant war with markets (life) is like intra-day system less trading (complaining in life). Behavioral finance has proved day trading to be net inefficient and wasteful. Just like in war, the greater object is victory, not lengthy prolonged (trading or complaining) campaigns.

Another reasonable assumption is to replace fighting with trading…

This special report carries review of the short trade ideas with levels, and projections on NSEBANK, Lupin, HDFC, Petronet, Axis Bank, Reliance, LIC and NTPC .

To read the complete report download it from Orpheus E store.

The article without cases was written for Business Standard

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 05 December 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: Psychology, Time Triads

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We wrote about the Dow psychology in Oct 2008.

“Correlations are an illusion that we live in, as you can actually draw a cycle of increasing and decreasing correlations between DOW and Sensex. And what use is correlation anyway. Correlation as a trading indicator works miserably with not much back testing validations. Dow is our psychological alibi that we use to explain market vagaries. There is no other way you can explain why if the problem is in America, why did China, Russia, India and the world fall more than the DOW. Of course there will be some explanation for this too.”

There is another illusion we are living today, the illusion of how markets behave when there is a financial crisis. In any crisis inefficiency goes out and efficient systems rebuild the economic structure. Now this means that any thing unsustainable will move OUT and sustainable structures will survive and thrive. Now what is DOW, An index of efficiency or inefficiency? DOW index will always try to mirror efficiency, anything that is inefficient will be kicked out of DOW and just strong companies will remain back as constituents. This means looking at DOW to estimate the direction of the crisis over a longer term might be a bad idea, as over the long term the DOW has an opportunity to keep strengthening itself with new efficient components. This is why looking at what DOW is doing over the long term might challenge another of our short term psychology illusions. Did you know that DOW is 16% from an all time high, which it has not distinctly broken in 12 years. The basic rule of market structure suggests that the more a resistance is tested, the more likely it’s to break. Any 16% upside gives DOW a chance to test the 12 year resistance. How large is a 16% move? Ask this to an emerging or frontier market participant and he(she) might be surprised “that’s all DOW needs to go to historical high?”. But that’s not the real surprise. The real surprise would be the news that would appear when DOW makes a new historical high of 12 years. The current 12,000 resistance high offers a true trend line resistance. A break here would leave DOW in a free rise to historical highs. Above this the monthly and weekly oversold momentums are also testing key trendlines. A break there too will confirm that the cycle lows are already in place and the BULL SURPRISE might happen.

This special report looks at the DOW connection with the Indian Sensex and what it means for Sensex if DOW is headed to a new high. The report covers Indian sector indices, gold and oil.

To read the complete report download it from Orpheus E store.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 04 December 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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