The BSEPOWER Riddle?
Which is the worst power sector stock which fulfills the following criteria?
1) Is less than 30% Jiseki Ranking
2) Has a corrective overlapping structure since 2009.
3) Has barely retraced 50% from the 2009 highs.
4) Has monthly ROC positive
5) Is an Orpheus buy from the Indian Power Sector?
To know the answer, download the latest ALPHA report.
Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.
Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.
Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam. Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.
The Bayesian Curse
The Dreyfus affair was a political scandal that divided France in the 1890s and the early 1900s. It involved the conviction for treason in November 1894 of Captain Alfred Dreyfus. He was sentenced to life imprisonment for allegedly having communicated French military secrets to the German Embassy in Paris.
What happened? In 1906 Dreyfus was exonerated and reinstated as a major in the French Army. He served during the whole of World War I, ending his service with the rank of Lieutenant-Colonel.
How did Dreyfus’s fortune change? Henri Poincare, a respected mathematician cited probability and statistics. He said that undue weightage to new evidence was incorrect and judgment should be made on basis of all other available proofs. He called on the jury to rely on scientific education rather than feelings.
It was much before probability that David Hume criticized against cause and effect. He said that certain objects are constantly associated with each other. But the fact that umbrellas and rain appear together does not mean that umbrellas cause rain. The fact that the sun has risen thousands of times does not guarantee that it will do so the next day. In criticizing concepts about cause and effect Hume was undermining Christianity’s core beliefs.
With Hume’s doubts about cause and effect swirling about, Thomas Bayes began to consider ways to treat the issue mathematically. In any event, problems involving cause and effect and uncertainty filled the air, and Bayes set out to deal with them quantitatively….
To read the complete article visit Business Standard.
The INR McBurger
Recently economist carried the comparisons of currencies around the world. The table suggested in INR terms the BIG MAC INDEX was the cheapest. At Orpheus when we hear the world CHEAPEST bells ring very hard. When something gets cheapest it automatically senses of value. We don’t think INR to be in an impulse higher and don’t think the shooting star at 54 is easy to break in Jan. We see some strengthening to 52 and lower before anything. How this is going to influence equity remains to be seen. This latest FOREX JISEKI we have ranked the currencies over the last quarter and carried the various FOREX JISEKI around the world. For INR we have looked at the XEN (INR currency Index) Jiseki. The Jiseki has not bottomed yet, but in ranking terms INR is indeed one of the worst performers. We have carried a technical case on INR along with YEN, GBP etc.
The read the latest Alpha download the report from the Orpheus e store.
Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies
Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.
Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.
Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Senior Technical Analyst at Aditya Birla Money covering Indian Equity Markets. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times.
