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Waking up to divergence

Posted By Orpheus On January 16, 2012 @ 1:16 AM In India,Research Updates | No Comments

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Divergence is a part of nature, it is also observed in markets. This special issue on Indian Banks illustrate the divergence between YES Bank and SBI from May 2009 to Nov 2010 of 300%. The tough part about divergence is that there are few tools that can quantify it.

When will divergence between sector peers end?
What is high and low divergence?
Does it have maximum or minimum or average value?
Can we rank divergence spread between sector peers?

Orpheus Jiseki provides objective tools to explain divergence. We queried the Banking universe to understand.

1) Which are the most diverged Banking pairs?
2) Whether divergence is important to be seen for a month, 6 months or a year?
3) Can we rank the divergence between all banking pairs?
4) Does it tell us which are the banking outperformers?
5) Does it tell us whether banking sector will bottom?

We have answered all these questions in the latest ALPHA. The report carries technical cases on all the banking stocks, ranking of pairs, the top running pair, Jiseki cycles on the banking stocks and a sector preview.

To read more about our JISEKI PAIR service subscribe mail us today.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

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Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


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