Juicing the orange was a wonderful book I read in a long time. An economist dabbling with an ad book and writing about one might seem strange, but then are markets not about understanding trends, society, innovation and creativity. The book written by Pat Fallon founder of Fallon worldwide suggests creative leverage as the solution.

Fallon’s used creativity to offer real solutions for many brands. The case of ArcaAEX was unique. In 2002, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved ArcaEX, as it was then known, as a full-fledged stock exchange so that it could directly compete with the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq. ArcaEX was virtual. It had a visibility disadvantage. By the end of the promotion 65% of professional traders used AracaEX. By 2005, the electronic stock exchange technology was accepted by traders. That fall, the 213 year old NYSE announced that it would merge with ArcaEX. Creativity overlaps. Just like ArcaEX used it to change the industry, Fallon used creativity to promote the exchange.

Somewhere creativity was about starting from scratch. It was about relentless reductionism, reducing the problem to a single insight. It got me thinking about creativity. What does creative leverage mean in capital markets? What hampered it all this while? Why don’t we have numerous ideas to make money? Why financial innovations suck? Are the economists really being creative? Or is economics so far from advertising, which is fun? Was creativity not about solutions and fun? In 1997, California Management Review published a study that investigated how experts in fields ranging from physics to art to business felt about such abstract concepts as wisdom, intelligence and creativity. It was only the businesspeople that tended to believe that it was unwise to be creative….

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Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 13 February 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: Patterns and Proportions, Time Triads

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Just like Jiseki Time cycles and seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets, Jiseki  pair cycles are designed to explain a sector pair relationship. The latest ALPHA has carried the following Jiseki pair cycles.

1)Infosys vs.TCS  2)  ITC vs. HLL 3) M&M vs. Tata Motors. 4) Ranbaxy vs. Reddy 5) Reliance vs. ONGC  6) Wipro vs. Tech Mahindra 7 ) ICICI Bank vs. Axis Bank 8 ) HDIL vs. India Bulls Real Estate 9 ) BPCL vs. HPCL 9) Bank of India vs. Bank of Baroda 10) Bajaj vs. Hero Honda Motors.

1)We can understand which one of the sector peer is going to outperform ahead.
2)We can objectively calculate the percentage of outperformance.
3)We can anticipate a reversal in performance.
4)We can do stock selection, choosing a sector peer above the other.
5)We can create a long – short strategy using options.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 13 February 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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