Orpheus CAPITALS, Global Alternative Research

Orpheus Capitals vision is to revolutionize the world’s understanding of TIME and build research and analytics around it. The company is listed with Integrity Research (New York). Alternative Research includes price and time fractals, cycles, sentiment and quantitative research. We publish research reports internationally on Reuters, Thomson, Capital IQ, FactSet, Research and Market platforms and Finalaya. The research coverage includes 5000 global assets. Orpheus Research also covers Metals, Forex, Agro, Energy, Bonds and Green assets. Our services includes, forecasts, cycles, investment strategies, analytics, model portfolios, risk management and Indices.

Mukul Pal, Founder, Orpheus Capitals is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

Mukul has actively researched on ‘Time’ and has written seminal papers on the mathematical hierarchy of time. His first paper on performance cycles was published in the Kyoto Economics Journal in Mar 2009. His paper on Time Fractals was accepted by the ERN History of Economics Journal and Capital Markets Market Microstructure eJournal (SSRN Economics Research Network). Time Fractals attempt to explain the exponentiality in nature and markets. The subject has wide application even outside capital markets. Mukul has written on the toplogy of Time, coined ideas like Extreme Reversion and written extensively on derivatives markets, sentiment indicators, alternative research, investment psychology, commodities and global assets from 1997 till date for local and international journals like Business Standard (India), The Economic Times (India), E-Mecklai (India), Yahoo Business, Economistul (Romania), Ziarul Financiar (Romania), Bucharest Daily News (Romania), Business Week (Romania), Technically Speaking (MTA Newsletter USA), Euro Physics letters (France) etc.

Mukul is also an active trainer and speaker. He has spoken at TED, at the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts in Toronto, conducted training programs for Thomson Reuters (Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Albania), Oil and Gas Forum Romania, Bombay Stock Exchange, SIBIU Derivatives Exchange, Bucharest Stock Exchange, Academy of Economic Studies. Orpheus CAPITALS covers India, CEE region and global assets including Metals, Energy, Alternative Energy, Agro Commodities, Bonds, Interest rates and ETF’s across multiple time frames for investing and trading. Orpheus research reports are published internationally on Reuters, Thompson, Yahoo Finance and Business Standard India. Orpheus Research is registered with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent research company.

Orpheus proprietary research on Time fractals redefine stock picking, hedging, pair trading, sector selection, index construction and offers tools and indicators for market timing. We publish Alpha, a numeric ranking product that ranks assets across time frames, allowing the investment community to understand that performance is cyclical and select assets only when they are ready to perform. Orpheus Time analytics is a web based application that allows the user to review, monitor and generate strategy signals for investment and trading.

Time Triads

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what is not visible is a challenge. Understanding ‘Time’ could bring more than a conventional thought down.

Since 1909 when Vilfredo Pareto wrote about the Pareto curve, the curve is an unchallenged rule. Time Fractals or exponentiality of Time is the answer to Vilfredo Pareto’s 1909 ‘nature of men’, Edward R Dewey’s ‘mysterious force’ and Mandelbrot’s ‘chaos’. It is a revolution, which could redefine everything from economics to history, from geometry to relativity. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in ‘Time’ forecasts and interpret the world around us a bit more.

(Jiseki) Performance Cycles

Jiseki is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Jiseki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range of 1% to 100%. 1% is a top relative performance and 100% is the worst performance. Since performance is cyclical, the top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

The study of performance cycles in single assets, pair of assets, economic and social indicators is the study of Economic History. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frame. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why markets are connected. Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection between Oil and global economy? Why we watch Dow Industrial Average sometimes and sometimes we look at Shanghai Index? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Are we in inflationary or deflationary time? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? What does it mean if Apple is the best and Sugar is the worst performer for a certain period? What does it mean if football outperforms baseball in revenue generation? Performance cycles can objectively answer these questions because Economic history is mathematical.