Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 31 March 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: History, Psychology, Time Triads

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This What we said on 16 Oct 

We posted a question on the Orpheus forum. “Can Reliance save India or Nifty?”. The popular answer was ‘Yes’ it can. We put the question up for a few reasons. First, Reliance is the top weight in Nifty. Second, we live in an Oil economy. Third, a stock cannot remain sideways for eternity. Q1 2012, Reliance would complete 36 months of sideways action. Any fall below 700 will take the stock to 2009 lows.

Reliance is back to 700 prices. A break here would suggest further negativity. We have a running short on Reliance. We have reviewed all short ideas. Ranbaxy has pushed above review levels. We are closing the running short on Ranbaxy. Rest shorts continue to run. On the pair side our long idea TATA Motors delivered 60% since Nov 2011 vs. Reliance a running Short.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 29 March 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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What is Jiseki?

Our first academic paper was published in the Journal of Economics at Kobe university in 2009. The research papers were translated in Japanese. We had to translate performance cycle in Japanese. Performance, returns, results for us were not only absolute but also relative and cyclical. And these cycles of performance could be witnessed in traded assets, social and natural data. We needed a term which could summarize all these meanings in one kanji. Jiseki summarized it well. It meant achievement and actual results.

To read the latest report download it from our Reuters Store or mail us for subscription details.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Dr. Ionut Nistor is the co-author of Performance Cycles paper published in Kyoto Economics Journal in March 2009. Ionut is a professor of Corporate Finance at Babes -Bolyai University and a post doctorate fellow at the Kobe University in Japan. He is fluent in Japanese, Romanian and English.

The Bric Model from a Japanese Perspective
Ionut Nistor – Econohistory

Author: Orpheus | Date: 29 March 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 28 March 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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The latest ALPHA updates sector Jiseki cycles and illustrates the return table since Jan 2009. BSEREAL and POWER were the worst performers for the period at -28% and 11% respectively. While AUTO and Consumer Durables were the best at 293% and 223% respectively.

The technical picture has not changed. We still have a negative market bias and need clear supports to get back on to the accumulation story. The bias might change in April. We would wait for the month closing to see if March indecision turns out to be a consolidation or distribution. As it seems now we have seen net stagnation rather than a real retracement. This is more positive than negative.

We continue to look at power and realty as accumulate sectors not only because they are the worst  but also because if the Indian economy has to really turn up Realty and power sector should deliver.

To read the latest report download it from our Reuters Store or mail us for subscription details.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage India: CNX100, BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 27 March 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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We at Orpheus are commodity bulls. A commodity is a generic term used for a group of metals, energy and agro assets. Among the commodity complex itself, it’s important to understand how various components will outperform or underperform. A generic broad positive forecast, though useful does little to mitigate the overall risk that comes with large return divergence between assets.

To explain the divergence risk and differentiate it from a large commodity bullish forecast we analyzed nine commodity London ETFs viz. Wheat, Cotton, Corn, Gold, Platinum, Silver, Crude, Natural Gas, Gasoline and all commodity Index (AIGC.L). Three from this group were agro commodities, three were energy based, three were from metals complex and the tenth asset was a broad commodity index. We compared them from Jan 2009.

Natural Gas was the worst at negative 90%, wheat followed at – 42%. On the top tier was Silver at positive 196% with Gasoline at second best, delivering 154% for the period under study. Strangely crude, corn and commodities delivered 6%, 14% and 22% respectively over a similar period.

Even if we ignore the outliers i.e. Natural Gas and Silver, the commodity complex witnessed an inter commodity market divergence of 112% (Long Gasoline, Short Wheat). This was an annualized return of 37%.

To read the latest report download it from our Reuters Store or mail us for subscription details.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Dr. Ionut Nistor is the co-author of Performance Cycles paper published in Kyoto Economics Journal in March 2009. Ionut is a professor of Corporate Finance at Babes -Bolyai University and a post doctorate fellow at the Kobe University in Japan. He is fluent in Japanese, Romanian and English.

The Bric Model from a Japanese Perspective
Ionut Nistor – Econohistory

Author: Orpheus | Date: 22 March 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: Global, Research Updates

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Sustainable market reversal does not happen without a broad market support. To expect Nifty to reverse with underperforming sectors pulling it lower is wishful thinking. This Alpha we take the BSE500 Energy stocks that are above 70% in rankings. We compare them with our long only ideas BPCL and ONGC. What do we see? First unlike the Nifty true positive trendline breakout, IOC, HOEX and Gail have no such trendline breakouts. The stocks have a weak price structure. Second, when we compared Petronet vs. IOC, the former has outperformed the latter by 30% in the last12 months. This not only suggests inter sector divergence, but also that there is no sign of reversal for IOC yet. Stock selection can be reviewed if you change the comparison group. Understanding BPCL and ONGC as a part of CNX100 and then as a part of BSE500 suggests…

To read the latest report download it from our Reuters Store or mail us for subscription details.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 22 March 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: Global, Research Updates

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Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 21 March 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: Anticipated and Happened, The Orpheus Newsletter

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Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 21 March 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 20 March 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: Global, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA