Posts published by "Orpheus":

Can Rieki non-confirm?

Last week we talked about Rieki challenging the INR Elliott Triangle. The reason Rieki overcame such a high resolution pattern was because Reiki is a time construct unlike Elliott which is a price pattern theory. Though price patterns also derive their structure from time, they are forecasting price formations and not the direction of time. In the weeks ahead we will be building on our Time cases.
Today we have illustrated Rieki charts with prices. This validates the Rieki indicator more. The only gap at this stage is that just like many oscillators, even Rieki can lag and lead. It can non confirm the price action. And this means that though Rieki for EURUSD is pointing lower, it may take a while before EURUSD finally corrects.
Even if Rieki is an efficient tool, we want our readers to be clear that there is no bigger tool than price confirmation. Hence if EURUSD continues to move up above 1.37 levels. Rieki of the intermediate degree has failed to predict a timely turn and we need to see a higher time frame Rieki to understand where EURUSD is headed.
This week we have looked at the Rieki for cross currency pairs together with their respective price structure. The Rieki indicator uses London currency ETF’s. We are looking at shorting AUD, CHF and continuing to be long on INR and CAD.
The non confirmation between EUR and GBP together with Rieki failing to confirm the recent upmove continues to point towards a topping case in both the pairs. JPY has closed the month with a bullish inverted hammer. With Rieki bottoming, we continue to expect the pair to head towards 88 – 89. AUD continued higher with its complex corrective. However with Reiki failing to confirm the new high, we continue to look at a completing structure.

Last week we talked about Rieki challenging the INR Elliott Triangle. The reason Rieki overcame such a high resolution pattern was because Reiki is a time construct unlike Elliott which is a price pattern theory. Though price patterns also derive their structure from time, they are forecasting price formations and not the direction of time. In the weeks ahead we will be building on our Time cases.
Today we have illustrated Rieki charts with prices. This validates the Rieki indicator more. The only gap at this stage is that just like many oscillators, even Rieki can lag and lead. It can non confirm the price action. And this means that though Rieki for EURUSD is pointing lower, it may take a while before EURUSD finally corrects.
Even if Rieki is an efficient tool, we want our readers to be clear that there is no bigger tool than price confirmation. Hence if EURUSD continues to move up above 1.37 levels. Rieki of the intermediate degree has failed to predict a timely turn and we need to see a higher time frame Rieki to understand where EURUSD is headed.
This week we have looked at the Rieki for cross currency pairs together with their respective price structure. The Rieki indicator uses London currency ETF’s. We are looking at shorting AUD, CHF and continuing to be long on INR and CAD.
The non confirmation between EUR and GBP together with Rieki failing to confirm the recent upmove continues to point towards a topping case in both the pairs. JPY has closed the month with a bullish inverted hammer. With Rieki bottoming, we continue to expect the pair to head towards 88 – 89. AUD continued higher with its complex corrective. However with Reiki failing to confirm the new high, we continue to look at a completing structure.

Enjoy the latest Waves Forex.

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti covers Forex in her weekly columns.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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Channels.India – SBI. Anticipated and happened

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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Dow Cycles

Minor Cycles point low into October 2010

Source Foundation of Cycles

Intermediate Cycles suggest an impending bottom and positivity from Oct – Nov lows. Dow Rieki.

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Best vs. Worst

The idea of performance cycles is built around divergence between the worst and the best. After a certain time the best and worst reverse polarity. The histogram carries a 6 month return comparative between few best and worst Nifty blue chips. SBI, ITC were the best and Suzlon, Jaiprakash and Reliance were the worst. After we ranked the stocks on performance we looked at the Rieki (performance cycles) for the respective stocks.

To read more on India strategy mail us for subscription details to Alpha India.

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Performance Cycles (Rieki) on nine major forex pairs gives a global perspective.


Orpheus at Hunedoara

October 9, 2010

The training will cover the following strategies and ideas.

1:  Is Romanian Market in a Bull market?

2:  Is EURRON headed to 4,5 in Dec 2010?

3:  Why is Gold a multiyear investment?

4:  Where is the global economy headed?

5:  What is the DOW JONES year end perspective?

6: How can you hedge with Dow, SIF5 futures?

7: Can hedging make a profit?

8: What are the different arbitrage strategies in Romania?

9: What is the mathematical approach to stock picking?

10: How to reduce portfolio risk?

For further details please drop us a mail or visit the following weblink

Castlelul Corvinilor- Venue

Register at SIBEX – Sibiu Derivatives Exchange

Orpheus Capitals, Global Alternative Research Company

Orpheus Capitals is listed with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent researcher. The research startup is headed by Market Technicians from Market Technicians Association, New York. The research outfit publishes 300 research reports internationally on Reuters and Thomson platforms monthly. The coverage includes global equity, metals, forex, agro, energy, bonds and green assets. The forecasts cover asset classes across time frames. Orpheus is the only company in India, C&E Europe to do intraday research on indices, futures and various other assets.

Speaker Profile: Mukul Pal

Mukul Pal, Co-Founder, Orpheus Capitals is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance. Orpheus Research is registered with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent research company.

He is a member of the Market Technicians association. He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is also an authorized investment consultant by the CNVM (Romanian Capital Market Regulator).

Mukul has actively researched on ‘Time’ and has written some seminal paper on the mathematical hierarchy of time. His first paper on performance cycles was published in the Kyoto Economics Journal in Mar 2009. Recently his paper on Time Fractals was accepted by the ERN History of Economics Journal and Capital Markets Market Microstructure eJournal (SSRN Economics Research Network).

Time Fractals attempt to explain the exponentiality in nature and markets. The subject has wide application even outside capital markets. He has written extensively on derivatives markets, sentiment indicators, alternative research, investment psychology, commodities and global assets from 1997 till date for local and international publications like the Business Standard (India), The Economic Times (India), E-Mecklai (India), Yahoo Business, Economistul (Romania), Ziarul Financiar (Romania), Bucharest Daily News (Romania), Business Week (Romania), Technically Speaking (MTA Newsletter USA), Euro Physics letters (France) etc.

Mukul is also an active trainer and speaker. He has conducted training programs for Thomson Reuters (Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Albania), Oil and Gas Forum Romania, Bombay Stock Exchange, SIBIU Derivatives Exchange, Bucharest Stock Exchange, Academy of Economic Studies. Orpheus CAPITALS covering India, CEE region and global assets including Metals, Energy, Alternative Energy, Agro Commodities, Bonds, Interest rates and Elf’s across multiple time frames for investing and trading. Orpheus research reports are published internationally on Reuters, Thompson, Yahoo Finance and Business Standard India.

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Channels.India – ACC. Engulfing Bearish

ACC DAILY The Engulfing Bearish candlestick formation suggests a potential minor reversal here. Key Fib supports lie at 950 levels.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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BSEFMCG returns a KR

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Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009

Alpha India

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Orpheus India Research

WAVES.INDIA is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

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Waves.Global – S&P 500. Holding below 1,160 resistances

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Orpheus Global Research

Contributing Columnist: Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he’s joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. In 2007 he was authorized as an investment consultant by the Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the WAVES.GLOBAL weekly.

WAVES.GLOBAL is a perspective product published on Wednesday. The report highlights top GLOBAL indices and emerging market indices viz. S&P500 (.SPX), German DAX (.GDAXI), STOXX Europe 600 (.STOXX), Russian IRTS (.IRTS), Nikkei 225 (.N225), Shanghai Composite (.SSEC), Indian Sensex (.BSESN), Thailand SET Index (.SETI), Brazil BOVESPA (.BVSP). The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers and market trends.

REUTERS RICS: .SPX, .GDAXI, .STOXX, .IRTS, .N225, .SSEC, .BSESN, .SETI, .BVSP

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Channels.India – IDEA is ready to break channel supports

IDEA WEEKLY (IDEA) Prices turned back from psychological 80 resistances and are ready to break the minor trend channel supports. Performance cycles have also topped.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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Long AIGE, short coffee to begin

The performance cycles point to energy outperformance vs. coffee underperformance. Long ETF Energy vs. Short Coffee should begin. AIGE.L is an ETF based on Energy, with Crude Oil (43%) weight, Natgas (35%) weight and 11% each for heating oil and unleaded gasoline. The cases of historical divergence between coffee and AIGE is illustrated.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: Forex (EUR USD, AUD USD, GBP USD, CAD USD, JPY USD, CHF USD, Yuan Rnmbi, Indian rupee, NZD USD), Energy (Crude, Natural Gas, Gasoline, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Carbon Emissions, Brent, WTM, Energy Index), Metals (Precious Metals, Tin, Zinc, Nickel, Copper, Platinum, Silver, Industrial Metals Index, Gold), Agro (Coffee, Corn, Grains, Livestock, Sugar, Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton), Thematic and Global Equity (Coal Mining Fund, Shipping Fund, Dow Industrials, Sense, Agricultural Equity, Water, Nuclear, Russell 2000, Russell 1000 USD), Bonds (US 30, US 5Y,  US 10Y, US 2Y, INR Bond Index, China Bond Index, Australian Bond Fund, Global Bond Index, Sweden Bond Index).

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

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Vivek Marne is currently working with BDO Consulting in Oman, providing services in determining new business opportunities for various clients to understand markets and companies and identifying ways in which clients can become high-performance businesses. He has worked previously with KPMG (global risk and compliance services of manufacturing companies in India) and with Irevna – Division of CRISIL (fundamental analysis of Information technology companies). Vivek is passionate about Technical Analysis, a self taught Elliott Wave Technician. He conducts technical analyis on a variety of financial instruments on his blog vivekoutlook.blogspot.com. He covers commodities for Orpheus Research.

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