We wrote about the Dow psychology in Oct 2008.

“Correlations are an illusion that we live in, as you can actually draw a cycle of increasing and decreasing correlations between DOW and Sensex. And what use is correlation anyway. Correlation as a trading indicator works miserably with not much back testing validations. Dow is our psychological alibi that we use to explain market vagaries. There is no other way you can explain why if the problem is in America, why did China, Russia, India and the world fall more than the DOW. Of course there will be some explanation for this too.”

There is another illusion we are living today, the illusion of how markets behave when there is a financial crisis. In any crisis inefficiency goes out and efficient systems rebuild the economic structure. Now this means that any thing unsustainable will move OUT and sustainable structures will survive and thrive. Now what is DOW, An index of efficiency or inefficiency? DOW index will always try to mirror efficiency, anything that is inefficient will be kicked out of DOW and just strong companies will remain back as constituents. This means looking at DOW to estimate the direction of the crisis over a longer term might be a bad idea, as over the long term the DOW has an opportunity to keep strengthening itself with new efficient components. This is why looking at what DOW is doing over the long term might challenge another of our short term psychology illusions. Did you know that DOW is 16% from an all time high, which it has not distinctly broken in 12 years. The basic rule of market structure suggests that the more a resistance is tested, the more likely it’s to break. Any 16% upside gives DOW a chance to test the 12 year resistance. How large is a 16% move? Ask this to an emerging or frontier market participant and he(she) might be surprised “that’s all DOW needs to go to historical high?”. But that’s not the real surprise. The real surprise would be the news that would appear when DOW makes a new historical high of 12 years. The current 12,000 resistance high offers a true trend line resistance. A break here would leave DOW in a free rise to historical highs. Above this the monthly and weekly oversold momentums are also testing key trendlines. A break there too will confirm that the cycle lows are already in place and the BULL SURPRISE might happen.

This special report looks at the DOW connection with the Indian Sensex and what it means for Sensex if DOW is headed to a new high. The report covers Indian sector indices, gold and oil.

To read the complete report download it from Orpheus E store.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 04 December 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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We are now 12 month into a falling market. A market that falls for more than 9 months is called a primary BEAR. But there is interesting statistics that can be observed now. Assuming all the investors were smart and knew Oct 2008 was a smart entry, how many investors do you think are still stuck in the market now that NIFTY has reached Jun 2009 levels? There were 3 smart trends.

First was the one from Oct 2008 till Jun 2009 9 (T1-T3). The Second one was from Mar 2009 to Jun 2009 (T2-T3) and the third one from Oct 2008 till Nov 2010 (T1-T4). The second trend gave the maximum annualized return while the third gave the maximum absolute return. Assuming 20% of the investors are smart to get the complete absolute move, only 10-15% could have the shrewdness to capture maximum annualized return and stay out of the market. This leaves sizeable 55% investors that are still stuck with their investments. And by the way, we assumed 100% of the investing community was invested in Oct 2008, which is a wrong assumption. A correct extrapolation can easily take us to 75% or higher number of market participants that are still stuck with what they bought in Oct 2008. Now this is what a non trending market does. It makes it difficult to survive leading to problems, downsizing, mood lows and murky outlooks.

This special report carries trade ideas, levels, and projections on Nifty, NSEBANK, CNXIT, Lupin, HDFC, Petronet, Axis Bank, Reliance, TCS, SUN, BOB, Havells, Bajaj Auto, Mahindra and Yes Bank.

To read the complete report download it from Orpheus E store.

The article without cases was written for Business Standard

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 27 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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What’s more important, avoiding a loss or making a gain? I asked this question at a recent training. The answer was unequivocal “making a gain”. Coming to look at it, if a market player does not master the art of avoiding a loss, he can make money but not a consistent gain. Over years my teachers, the great books I have read, make me feel that the words I use today are mine. Another very interesting learning I frequently quote is the fact that there are five things in markets. A small gain, a small loss, a big gain, a big loss and no change. The only thing which makes money is when you know how to avoid a big loss. If you mastered the art of not losing big, you are going to make consistent wealth. Unfortunately markets have many hard lessons, and market players are full of impatient learners. We just don’t learn.

Now let me ask you another question? How does one minimize the chances of a big loss, when he buys at a new historical high or a multi year low? This is the same idea we have been writing for nearly 24 months now. Till the time you won’t have the confidence to buy a worst loser, you are never going to avoid the big loss and till the time you are not going to avoid big loss, you will remain away from buying multi year winners.

Another important lesson is the lesson of surprise. An investor, trader or researcher should never forget that markets always have an ability to surprise. So if you are always ready for one, you are more adaptable. And if you are more adaptable, you can do better risk management.

Where does this bring us? This brings us to the fact that could the current Nifty potential bounce become large enough to challenge our 4,000 NIFTY aggressive target? This report looks at India’s worst losers and a case on DLF.

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 25 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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Why is Rupee so important for NIFTY investors? Because according to intermarket analysis, currency strengthening should be accompanied by Equity Index strengthening. This means, if RUPEE strengthens Nifty Strengthens and vice versa. Is this a rule? There are no rules in market, just guidelines.

So did it work? This is what we said on 25 Dec 2010. “Markets have enough capability to burn time in stagnation or weakness. The ongoing complex corrective could just persist till H1 2011. What does this tell us about equity? This tells us that Nifty VIX broad basing formation should not be ignored as equity could surprise early 2011. And since we are in larger complex corrective in Indian equity also, performance cycles (relative performance) should be used to reduce out of overstretched sectors and accumulate into best potential outperformers.”

We did a follow up on Rupee on Sep 2011. This is what we said then, “Now if we should project these ratios in time INR could weaken against the USD till Dec 2011 or till Dec 2013 to attain this proportion.”

Now that we have reached Dec 2012, it makes sense to look at INR and extend it’s connection to Indian equity. The current report looks at the NIFTY-INR connection. Is the market in an INR panic?

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 23 November 2011 | Comments (2)

Categories: India, Indian Pairs and Assets, Research Updates

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This is what we said on 11 May

“The subminor structure, however, does not look ready for a breakdown yet. Most of the sectors seem to be in an ongoing second wave correction with a pending subminor leg up before the third impulse down begins. Even if this last rise takes up a few more days, we are prepared to put our short ideas into action once the price confirmation is here. BSE Consumer Durables, BSE Auto, CNXIT, NSEBANK and BSE Metals are the best sectors according to the daily Jiseki rankings”

We are still looking at the current market form as three legged A-B-C ZIG ZAG. These are corrective and not impulsive structures. We have no reason to assume at the this stage that these three legged structures could become five impulse legs. Because five wave are trends and three waves are counter trends. (The basic rule of Elliott.) We are still with Benner in terms of 2011 lows (which seems to be spilling into 2012, but not yet) and we also made our corrective case with NIFTY resolution from 4,400-4,000 lows to 8,000 after this leg down. This would be a clock work, if the anticipated happens.

The latest Alpha explains and illustrates price structures of 7 sector indices. Explains about ZIG ZAGS, illustrates where we are headed. The report also carries trendline confluences which are key time windows for reversal. If markets have a tendency to fall fast, Jiseki should also accompany the price performance. So what we said were best performing sectors in May 2011, should easily push below 50% rankings and then it should be a new ball game.

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 21 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Indian Pairs and Assets, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

There are more reasons for TCS to go up. 1) It is back to historical highs. 2) It is top among carbon disclosure leadership. 3) It is rumored to interest Buffet. 4) It remains the outperformer.

What could be the reasons for it to come down?

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 21 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Indian Pairs and Assets, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

There are various ways to look at Punj Lloyd. First as a stock that fell 60% in a year. Second as a stock that gave an improved performance falling barely 17% in the last 6 months. This was an outperformance compared to BSE Capital Goods Index, Bharat Forge, BHEL, Exide, Cummins and the rest of it’s peers in the mid economic segment.

What does this mean? This means that the worst performer of 12 months is a relative outperformer when it comes to 6 months holding period. This also means that if we held Punj Lloyd just for the last 6 months, we did a good job with portfolio allocation. At Orpheus we have been consistent with our outperformance outlook for the respective stock.

There are other two ways to look at the stock, which can actually tell us when will Punj Lloyd eventually reverse positive. The latest Alpha looks at Jiseki cycles and explains the case further.

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 16 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Indian Pairs and Assets, Research Updates

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Though I was a city boy, my village roots helped me appreciate sugar cane farms, sunflower beds and wheat ‘godown’. As a child you don’t appreciate what you eat. It took me about two Juglar cycles of 10 years each to wake up to agro and to realize that agriculture was a powerful asset. We have been working on agro in this third Juglar cycle, studying agro and researching it. We have written quite a bit about the cotton farmer, sugar, wheat and the potato over years, not only because of its basic utility but also because of the TIME we live today.
All people reading this article will live inflationary times, which means a society that will treasure food and water, more than gold or oil and more than stocks. New leaders would come from such basic industries rather than from telecom, technology or banking.
So how should you participate in this wave? You reduce your portfolio risk by including components from the agro sector. However, there are a few mindsets we need to challenge before we open up to agro. A few misconceptions, “I know stocks, what do I know about Jeera (Indian Condiment Cumin)? Are we confusing comfort with knowledge? Or are we mixing product feel with product or predictive knowledge? The cause and effect reasons work in every market. Why does Chili go up or why does Suzlon still go down?
So if at the end of day both agro and non-agro have numerous factors affecting prices why should I deal with Agro? A few reasons…

The latest Alpha Agro carries 19 cases on Indian commodities with levels, targets, projected trends and Jiseki cycles. To read the report download the latest Alpha India Commodity special from our store.

The article was written for Business Standard.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. The current agro complex comparison puts Cotton and Sugar at the top and sesame and wheat at the bottom near 10%. Such low percentile rankings make Sesame and Wheat attractive holds. To latest report carries the Jiseki cycles for the agro assets with targets and projections for wheat, soybeans, coffee, sesame and coriander.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Global: Commodities, Currency, Stocks, Bonds, Indices

Author: Orpheus | Date: 15 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Indian Agro, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

This could be a normal question after an asset starts moving sideways for a long time. The technical reason can be that prices are forming a continuation five legged triangle pattern, which should resolve higher. Fundamental reasons can be many. Could this conventional thinking be wrong? Can you be sure that the triangle has a higher probability of breakout and a lower probability of a triangle failure? Is there a way these technical patterns can be filtered for risk? Is there a way the investor could understand the risk profile of his buy, sell, reduce, increase positions?

The rules are simple.

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 14 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Indian Pairs and Assets, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Hint: This is an Indian Sensex Component.

To read the Jiseki special download the latest Alpha India.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 14 November 2011 | Comments (8)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA