This question may have many answers based on when you ask it. The question may have no meaning if it was asked at the market top at BSEBANK 12,678 (20 Jan 2008). It may evoke a shrug if asked at Oct 2008 lows (BSEBANK 3,601). Now that BSEBANK has retraced almost 61.8% of the losses from historical highs (29 Jun 2009 8,575) the answer may at best be mixed. more….
Why do BANKS fall? This question may have many answers based on when you ask it. The question may have no meaning if it was asked at the market top at BSEBANK 12,678 (20 Jan 2008). It may evoke a shrug if asked at Oct 2008 lows (BSEBANK 3,601). Now that BSEBANK has retraced almost 61.8% of the losses from historical highs (29 Jun 2009 8,575) the answer may at best be mixed.
Performance cycles on the other hand can give an answer at all times. BANKS can underperform NIFTY, means fall against NIFTY cyclically. For example NSEBANK fell against NIFTY three times since July 2007 for an average 140 days. If you zoom in a bit more coming from weekly to daily charts, the number of times NSEBANK underperformed NIFTY or fell against NIFTY increases by a factor of three to nine times with an average time period of 46 days. There is another interesting thing that happened during this time when BANKS were underperforming NIFTY, broad markets were falling or stagnating on all the three occasions. What does this mean? This means that if we study performance cycles (TIME FRACTALS) we can not only isolate performers but we can also understand when the broad market might be ready to turn.
NSEBANK seems ready to underperform again against NIFTY. Empirically this means that chances of a broad market stagnation or negativity might be in. We have illustrated here the pair performance cycles (INTERMEDIATE and MINOR) between NIFTY and NSEBANK. Both time frames suggest an impending cycle low which could mean the end of NIFTY’s underperformance against banks. A clear turn from respective lows should see NSEBANK underperforming NIFTY for more than a few months. This also means that LONG NIFTY– SHORT NSEBANK could be an interesting pair to watch for the next 140 or 40 days. Now 140 days is a long time which takes us well into the final quarter of 2010.
Financials react fast to economic changes and hence carry clues for market perspective. This validates our overall negative view on the Indian market, which would be challenged only if prices move above the highlighted key resistances. We have carried Elliott updates on the main indices and ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED cases on BSE REALTY and BSE POWER.
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WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.
COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM
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Author: Orpheus | Date: 01 July 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: .BSEAUTO, .BSEBANK, .BSECG, .BSEOIL, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, .NSEI, BSESN, CITc1, IFc1
Categories: Indian Pairs and Assets
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CHANNELS.INDIA.010709
SUMMARY: IDEA DAILY (IDEA). Moving average crossover is negative. Key levels lie at psychological 70. BHARTI DAILY (BRTI). Prices continued to push lower after DARK CLOUD COVER formation. Below key 770 levels we get more negative confirmation. MAHANAGAR TELEPHONE NIGAM DAILY (MTNL). We still need a clear break below key 95 levels to continue to look lower. TATA COMMUNICATIONS DAILY (TATA). Prices continue to hold key supports near 450. Moving average crossover is still negative. TATA MOTORS DAILY (TAMO). ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED Prices breached psychological 300 levels. We continue to look lower. ASHOK DAILY (ASOK). Time cycles and the negative moving average crossover continue to point lower. CROMPTON DAILY (CROM). Moving average crossover is negative. Below key 260 levels we get more negative confirmation. BHARAT HEAVY DAILY (BHEL). Moving average crossover is negative. Key levels lie at psychological 2,000. RELIANCE DAILY (RELI). ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED Prices pushed lower in the corrective structure as anticipated.
CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS
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Author: Orpheus | Date: 30 June 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: channels
Categories: Anticipated and Happened, India
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WAVES.INDIA.300609
ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.
COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM
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Author: Orpheus | Date: 29 June 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: waves
Categories: India
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CHANNELS.INDIA.290609
SUMMARY: DLF DAILY (DLF): Prices continued to hold key supports at 310 levels. Moving average crossover is still negative. HDFC BANK DAILY (HDBK): ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED Prices held key resistance levels at 1,570. We continue to look lower from here. ICICI BANK DAILY (ICBK): Moving average crossover turned negative. Below key 630 levels we get more negative confirmation. STATE BANK OF INDIA DAILY (SBI): Moving average crossover continues to be negative. Key levels lie at 1,535. INFOSYS DAILY (INFY): Prices continued to hold above true trendline supports. Moving average crossover is still positive. Key resistance levels lie at 1,890. MAHINDRA DAILY (MAHM): Moving average crossover is turning negative. Below psychological 700 levels we get more negative confirmation. UNITECH DAILY (UNTE): Prices continued to hold the minor trend channel down. Moving average crossover is still negative. Key levels lie at psychological 80. TITAN INDUSTRIES DAILY (TITN): ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED Prices continued to push lower. Below key 1,060-1,000 levels we get further negative confirmation.
CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS
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Author: Orpheus | Date: 28 June 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: channels
Categories: Anticipated and Happened, India
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CHANNELS.IND.260609
SUMMARY: OIL AND NATURAL GAS DAILY (ONGC): Moving average crossover has turned negative. A breach of the true trendline near psychological 1,000 levels would strengthen our negative view. RELIANCE ENERGY DAILY (RLIN): Moving average crossover is still struggling to turn negative. AMBUJA DAILY (ABUJ): Moving average crossover is negative. Below key 84 levels we get more negative confirmation. ACC DAILY (ACC): Prices bounced back from key supports at psychological 700. Moving average crossover is negative. HINDALCO DAILY (HALC): Prices retraced 0.382 FIB from the previous impulsive structure up. We need a clear break below psychological 80 levels to continue to look lower. NTPC DAILY (NTPC): Prices continued to push lower after DOUBLE TOP formation. Below key 190 levels we continue to look lower till key 160. TISCO DAILY (TISC): Moving average crossover turned negative. Below key 365 levels we get more negative confirmation. CIPLA DAILY (CIPL): The c/iii wave up is completing near key 270 levels. RANBAXY DAILY (RANB): Moving average is ready to turn negative. A clear break at mid channel supports would validate our view. ITC DAILY (ITC): Prices continue to coil around psychological 200 levels. Moving average crossover is still positive.
CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS
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Author: Orpheus | Date: 25 June 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: channels
Categories: India
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There are stories about the inverse correlation between SENSEX and the US Dollar Index (USD). The same stories which talk about inverse correlation can also explain perfect correlation, but there is something missing here. First, perfect correlation does not last. Second, if instead of absolute prices if we compare changes between prices, the idea of correlation adorns a new meaning. For us at Orpheus it is not about positive or negative correlation, it is about the cycle of correlation.
According to performance cycles, an asset will always outperform or underperform the other asset. This means that there will always be an inverse correlation between any pair of assets if you are comparing performances. So what matters is really not correlation, but which of the assets is outperforming the other and WHEN.
The question of when DOLLAR strengthening against SENSEX will start or vice versa is more important than the obvious fact that dollar strengthening affects Sensex inversely. SENSEX pushed 17% higher in dollar terms compared to INR. This was a result of INR weakness against the dollar that was reflected in SENSEX returns.
In continuation of the above view we continue to look lower on SENSEX. The current downmove looks like an impulse which should push prices back till open gap levels.
We highlighted a Head and Shoulders pattern on SENSEX and Double Top pattern on NIFTY and BSE OIL. The current report also carries ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED cases on NIFTY, CNXIT and BSE REALTY, as well as time oscillators updates. Our overall Indian market view remains negative.
Enjoy the latest WAVES.INDIA
ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.
COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM
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CHANNELS.INDIA.240609
SUMMARY: BHARTI DAILY (BRTI). ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED “Prices are successively retesting true trendline supports. We need a clear break here for more negative confirmation. Key levels lie at 770.” HAPPENED. We now continue to look lower till psychological 700. MAHANAGAR TELEPHONE NIGAM DAILY (MTNL). Prices continued to push lower in the cycle. The current downmove seems impulsive and could push prices lower till psychological 80 levels. TATA COMMUNICATIONS DAILY (TATA). Prices are at key support levels at 450. A clear break below respective levels would push prices back to previous lows near 320. TATA MOTORS DAILY (TAMO). Prices are heading to key levels at psychological 300. ASHOK DAILY (ASOK). Time cycles and the negative moving average crossover continue to point lower. CROMPTON DAILY (CROM). Moving average crossover is ready to turn negative. BHARAT HEAVY DAILY (BHEL). Moving average crossover is ready to turn negative. LARSEN DAILY (LART). ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED As anticipated, prices complete the five wave structure up near key 1,650 levels. Below key 1,440 levels we get more negative confirmation.
CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM
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Author: Orpheus | Date: 23 June 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: channels
Categories: Anticipated and Happened, India
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WAVES.IND.230609
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WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.
COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM
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Author: Orpheus | Date: 22 June 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: waves
Categories: India
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CHANNELS.INDIA.220609
SUMMARY: DLF DAILY (DLF): Moving average crossover is negative. Below key 310 levels we get more negative confirmation. HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION DAILY (HDFC): Prices continue to move in a corrective structure. We still need a clear break below key 2,200 levels for more negative confirmation. HDFC BANK DAILY (HDBK): Momentum non-confirmation continues to suggest an exhaustion here. Key resistance levels at 1,570 should hold. ICICI BANK DAILY (ICBK): Prices pushed lower from key resistances. Below key 630 levels we get more negative confirmation. STATE BANK OF INDIA DAILY (SBI): Moving average crossover turned negative. Below key levels at 1,530 we get more negative confirmation. INFOSYS DAILY (INFY): Prices continued to hold previous high levels. KEY REVERSAL bars suggest further downmove from here. MAHINDRA DAILY (MAHM): ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED As anticipated, prices turned back from key resistance levels near 870. UNITECH DAILY (UNTE): Moving average crossover is ready to turn negative. Prices breached key levels at psychological 80. TITAN INDUSTRIES DAILY (TITN): Non-confirming momentum continues to point lower from here.
CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS
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Author: Orpheus | Date: 22 June 2009 | Comments (0)
Tags: channels
Categories: Anticipated and Happened, India
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