The first time we started inverting the charts and carrying them in WAVES.ROM, we had a mixed response from our internal analysts. Few talked about it as a specific tool, which the user may not understand. And few stood by it as a strong bias removing tool both for the user and the analyst. This was a few years ago. We hope that you our valued user have got used to inverted charts and patterns as another way to look at price.

The chart on the left is the BETFI inverted. As you can see, the formation looks more like a corrective. It is overlapping and has not breached 14,000 levels. This corrective is a sideways action, which we consider as a continuation pattern. Continuation pattern extend the previous trends. And in this inverted chart the previous trend is pointing to 20,000 BETFI.

We continue to look at BETFI 20,000. This we won’t call as a bias, but as a clear rule based forecast. Till prices on BETFI breach 14,000 we have no confirmation for BETFI pushing back into 10,000 territory. This issue of WAVES carries many more cases on INVERTED prices on BETC, BET, TEL, TGN, BETNG, BETXT etc.We had a relook and till prices don’t breach key levels and don’t prove us otherwise, there is only one way we are looking after OCT low. Let’s see.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.ROM.

ORPHEUS ROMANIA RESEARCH

WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX,.BETFI)

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 11 December 2008 | Comments (0)

Tags: BETFI

Categories: Romania

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FLATS are three legged structures also labeled as a-b-c. Three legged structures as opposed to five legged structures more sideways. This is why three legged structures are called counter trend, corrections or retracement of the main trend. And five legged structures on the other hand are impulsive, non overlapping and cause net movement. A classic example is illustrated here (SLIDE 1).

What we see if a five legged structure from the OCT bottom and now a three legged a-b-c sideways, overlapping structure down. This means that the trend is up and counter trend or correction is down. FLATS are also more sideways than ZIG ZAG’s which are more sharp and deep.

The current market scenario that we are witnessing on the local markets is full of FLATS. This includes BETFI, BETXT, SIF2 and SIF5. Flat identification is easy. In a normal FLAT the C wave does not push below the low of A. Now SIF2 (SLIDE 1) is witnessing a potential FLAT, where the C low has not reached the low of A at 0.55. Till the time prices don’t break the A low this sideways structure remains valid.

Just to understand price structures we use complimentary tools like OSCILLATORS. And many of them are suggesting overreactivity and are moving disproportionately to the prices (SLIDE 7,8). This also validates our view that the ongoing down move is a potential corrective.

We could be wrong, but then the SIF2 C wave low has to break down below 0.55 for us to look at markets differently. The latest update on WAVES.ROM also carries a primary count on SNP. TGN, TEL and BRD also remain above KEY LEVELS.

We remain positive on the market, till KEY LEVELS break against us.Enjoy the latest WAVES.ROM

ORPHEUS ROMANIA RESEARCH

WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX,.BETFI)

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 11 December 2008 | Comments (0)

Tags: BETFI

Categories: Romania

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There are many ways to read market sentiment. We talked about extreme sentiment readings and their interpretation on prior occasions; too bearish or bullish readings tell us what the market is thinking. RSR readings were extremely bullish at the start of the year, when markets were topping and the readings were extreme negative last month in OCT. The month was also an anticipated bottom for us. We mentioned this in July, when we said that a potential low could still be in, it happened.

The November readings are suggesting that the bottom might have already been in place. The inflexion point between bullish and bearish percentage has already lead to a clear overlap. And a majority of readings are reversing their respective trends. The 1 month readings are more sensitive owing to the smaller time horizon under study. But the overlap between bullish and bearish series and change in trend is visible both in 1 month and 6 month sentiment numbers.

Though the absolute readings are still negative, the confidence index calculated from the market pessimism and optimism data also show an inflexion. Market overall still expect little from the next two quarters. We interpret this as positive.

The only caution challenging our otherwise positive expectations is the number of percentage bulls as a proportion of market, which is not unequivocal in its readings. This could be owing to the drop in volumes, which is a passive parameter at market bottoms. RASDAQ readings were also out of sync with the rest of the market and don’t look encouraging still.

In conclusion, sentiment inflexion, and price performance over November suggests positivity to us. And the fact that sentiment measurements are slow moving indicators, make them slow but less prone to whipsaws. Let’s see.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 02 December 2008 | Comments (0)

Tags: psychology

Categories: Sentiment Indices Romania

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