The latest ALPHA illustrates the short ideas.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage: CNX 100 components and all Indian Sector Indices.

Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

How can this happen? This does happen. And this is what momentum (say Rate of change) is suggesting on Indian Nifty. On daily it’s suggesting 5,750 as high potential resistance reversal, on weekly ROC is still positive and does not confirm the daily view that 5,750 would really be a serious resistance, monthly ROC is still negative from the 24 month bear market and still below zero line (which is conventionally interpreted as the first sign of change of trend), while quarterly ROC momentum never fell below zero after 2004 low. According to the quarterly ROC Indian markets never entered a cycle degree bear. So what is the problem? The problem is that momentum does not harness different degrees of time in one common indicator. There are special indicators like Pring’s KST that attempt to harness multiple degrees of time. Maybe this is why it’s called Know Sure Thing (KST). We need more indicators like KST because a trader does not want to look for a reversal based on daily at 5,750 and get whipsawed by a move up to 5,800 or 6,000.

We think a multi week reversal is near. March is known for reversals and we are getting our ‘short-idea’ list ready for you. Remember market’s don’t move in straight lines. No correction means violent correction. So use the current upside to reassess your winners and losers. We have carried the NIFTY update from our intra day TICKS service for you. Enjoy.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage: CNX 100 components and all Indian Sector Indices.

Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

Since there can be a lot of worst performers in 1000 component asset group, we follow a multi-tier filtering process.

1) Rank the 1000 group
2) Filter the list for UK 100 or BSE 500
3) Filter for worst < 20% ranking in the interest group (UK, US, India, Commodities etc.)
4) Filter for stocks that have positive cycles (grey mode)
5) Filter that list for outperformance vs. composite Index FTSE for UK 100 and Sensex for BSE 500 components.
7) Filter again among this list by making sector pairs.
8 ) Find the reduced list of BUY stocks.

This report carries Mean Reversion Indices for the UK, US  and India region along with current running signals for the respective Indices. The indices are passive and based on weekly data.

To read more about our JISEKI Rankings, Indices, Signals and queries mail us today.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

The latest ALPHA carries the technical cases and Jiseki cycles for the worst ranking performers for CNX100…

You can also download the report from our Reuters Store

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage: CNX 100 components and all Indian Sector Indices.

Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

Before embracing the old with the new, one has to ask tough questions. Some of these questions have rarely been asked by technicians on an open forum. Why Elliott wave despite the decades long following has a poor scientific acceptance? Why such a strong pattern recognition tool failed to validate itself scientifically or statistically? Why Elliott can’t be used for a portfolio approach? Why was Elliott not acknowledged by Mandelbrot when he wrote ‘Multifractal Walk down wall street’ in Scientific American in 1999? Why are technicians split when it comes to Elliott? Why Robert Prechter’s DOW 400 forecast evokes diverse responses? If Elliott can encompass all technical patterns, why can’t it work on relative or intermarket patterns? Why do Elliotticians ignore the work done by technicians like Plummer, who explain a Triad pattern as the real pattern behind Elliott wave? Why do we have two disconnected school of Elliotticians, the Neely and Prechter club? Why is there no hypothesis testing for previous 4 wave support rules? Why should Elliotticians defenselessly let Statisticians tear apart the subject of market patterns? Why can’t we make market patterns academic? Why can’t Elliotticians prove the reason for the longest 3 wave and the reason for 4 wave not overlapping the 1 wave high?

There are many answers to all the above questions. First, it is like what Herbert Simon said, we never will have enough information. Second, Elliott addresses price but not time. Third, we never started from the scratch. We never dared to understand the rule, we just accepted it. If you are reading our thoughts for the first time, we urge you to read our other articles on the subject.

Article 1 – Demystifying Elliott

Article 2 – Can Time Triads create the head and shoulder fractals?

Article 3 – A Dow Theory

Article 4 – Revisiting Time Triads

You can find a lot of material related to our quest with objective Elliott on our blogs in the time triads section. Irrespective of where we go tomorrow, how academic we get, at the heart of all science is pattern watching. And there’s always a stage when things can’t be proved scientifically. So just because some thing fails statistically or scientifically at a certain point of time, should we discard it? We won’t discard Elliott, but we would definitely give it lesser importance over a statistical system approach. We will continue to dedicate a part of our time watching market patterns, but we will filter investment or trade ideas statistically. This weekly report is designed to study Elliott waves, some time using the classic approach, some time using the modern approach. We have just have one aim. We want to see how well Elliott confirms our system approach, our long and short filtered ideas and our Indices.

This report carries Elliott and Technical perspective on 8 Global Indices and 4 Indian Sector Indices.

You can also download the report from our Reuters Store

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.

A trade can make money. But if a trade makes consistent gains, it’s a wealth generating idea. What we do at Orpheus is build systems that can help you identify outperformers, winners while reducing trading and  investment risk. How do we do it?

1)We identify least risk outliers.
2)We identify cycles of performance in those outliers to time investments.
3)We also identify trends.
4)We start with a large universe and filter to reach the final trade and investment ideas.
Now let us give you an example of this multi staged stock selection process.

To read this Long only idea special for multi-month winners mail us for subscription details.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.

In continuation with the sector peer pairs we carried yesterday, today we are carrying the sector indices paired vs. CNX100. Since CNX100 is a broad index, we have used it as a comparative proxy vs. all sector indices. This ALPHA report answers the following questions.

How can we use Jiseki Sector pair cycles?

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

1)Infosys vs.TCS  2)  ITC vs. HLL 3) M&M vs. Tata Motors. 4) Ranbaxy vs. Reddy 5) Reliance vs. ONGC  6) Wipro vs. Tech Mahindra 7 ) ICICI Bank vs. Axis Bank 8 ) HDIL vs. India Bulls Real Estate 9 ) BPCL vs. HPCL 9) Bank of India vs. Bank of Baroda 10) Bajaj vs. Hero Honda Motors.

1)We can understand which one of the sector peer is going to outperform ahead.
2)We can objectively calculate the percentage of outperformance.
3)We can anticipate a reversal in performance.
4)We can do stock selection, choosing a sector peer above the other.
5)We can create a long – short strategy using options.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Is  BSE OIL ready to reverse?
What are the reasons?
What does inverted OIL suggest?
What are the targets for BSEOIL in the next few months?
Where is Reliance among BSE OIL components?
What are the targets for Reliance?

To read this BSE OIL and Reliance special mail us for subscription details.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.

This is what we said on 13 Apr 2011

Citi has become one of the worst performers (among Global 1000) of the last 24 month bull rally, it deserves another look. Our Jiseki performance rankings suggest that Citi is still among the bottom 20 percentile of performance over a quarter. Though the Jiseki cycles are not yet positive RSI support at 40 suggest that any fall in the stock should see buying support coming in. When a financial major suggests accumulation on an intermediate degree, it means that we are still in a continued bull market and any dip down should be intermediate in nature. We have illustrated both the Dow and Citi charts in the case here. Interpreting Citi price structure is the challenge, the Citi itself, never lies.

If the markets are connected, one should be able to understand the market structure by looking at a market component. Putting simply this means the market structure of a specific sector should suggest the direction of the broad market. Was this not the similar thought which Charles Dow mentioned in the Dow Theory? How different is the DOW Theory approach where we could (can) understand the DOW Industrials by looking at the DOW transports from understand the state of the bull market by studying a few financial majors.

Today we look at another two London financial majors, Barclays and Aviva. We also have revisited CITI. And guess what? Though CITI is 20% lower from where we left it in April, it still is above 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels from 2009 lows.

Barclays has also moved back above 0.618 Fibonacci levels and is ready to test a multiyear trendline resistance. A break above 250 would confirm positivity. If these correctives look unclear and dirty, we have Aviva with a clear corrective a-b-c structure and 0,618 Fibonacci support. Even if we are looking at a large complex corrective, above 300 the price structure suggests higher. Now when three top financials fail the break previous lows and show resilience how can we ignore the Bull. And before we rest our case, let’s not forget to review Jiseki cycles for BARCLAYS and AVIVA. The cycles are bottoming and positive.

The latest ALPHA also carries a relative intermarket case between UK worst stocks, carries the running portfolio components for our passive UK index, Ranking of worst UK components, the passive UK Mean Reversion Jiseki Index, Elliott counts on top global Indices and minor Elliott Case on Indian Nifty.

Our Mean Reversion Jiskei Index on UK is built from UK 100 components. We select the worst losers from UK 100 to allocate. Our Index has outperformed the FTSE 30 by 32%. Every week we will update a regional Index.

You can also download the report from our Reuters Store

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.