<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Orpheus Capitals &#187; Research Updates</title>
	<atom:link href="http://orpheus.asia/category/research-updates/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://orpheus.asia</link>
	<description>Global Alternative Research</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 03:33:24 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2</generator>
		<item>
		<title>Sensationalizing the Crude</title>
		<link>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/24/sensationalizing-the-crude/</link>
		<comments>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/24/sensationalizing-the-crude/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 03:33:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Orpheus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Updates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://orpheus.asia/?p=11603</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Victor Niederhoffer, published an article that sought to establish whether days with news of significant world events corresponded to days that saw big price movements. He tabulated all very large headlines in The New York Times from 1950-1966. Out of the 432 significant world event days, 78 (18 per cent) showed big price increases and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/113.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11604" title="1" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/113.png" alt="" width="651" height="392" /></a></p>
<p>Victor Niederhoffer, published an article that sought to establish whether days with news of significant world events corresponded to days that saw big price movements. He tabulated all very large headlines in The New York Times from 1950-1966. Out of the 432 significant world event days, 78 (18 per cent) showed big price increases and 56 (13 per cent) showed big decreases.</p>
<p>Even if all statistical evidence piles against information, 90% of humans would still believe the news. Why is that? Counter intuitive strategies are not for the majority, herding is easy, abandoning cause and effect for a seasonality is rare. The very reason that majority of humans love momentum and are trend followers is the reason why even a scientific approach on seasonality is for the few. Now the good part. This lack of popularity is one reason why cycle indicators will continue to work and second minority means risk mitigation. It’s the trend follower who is more prone to a risk trap because he(she) spends more time training to ride the trend rather than spotting a reversal. The other thing about following counter intuitive cycles is that they force you to correct behavioural errors. Most of behavioural finance errors happen to the trend following herders.</p>
<p>Yesterday, the ‘Oil to got costly’ was all over Indian news channel. There were tails at gas stations. The sensationalizing of crude worked. However, coming to look at it, it’s the INR denominated crude that is at a historical high and not the dollar denominated crude. Rather the dollar denominated gasoline has already corrected 10% from the recent high at 127. The structure looks negative and we think crude should correct more. Regarding INR, we continue to look at a bottoming NIFTY in conjunction with a topping INR ready for a reversal. The majority it seems is getting ahead of itself sensationalizing the crash of rupee and everything Indian. We wait for the inflexion signals.</p>
<p>In this latest report we have analyzed pairs of Indian sector Indices and stocks against Gasoline. The aim is to look for reversals before the trend happens. This is not a sensational approach, but it is low risk strategy of generating Alpha.</p>
<p>To read the latest report download it from our<a href="https://commerce.us.reuters.com/purchase/advancedSearch.do?providerList=38902"> Reuters Store</a> or <a href="http://orpheus.asia/contact/">mail us for subscription details.</a></p>
<p>Our<strong> Jiseki Time cycles</strong> are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.</p>
<p><strong>Jiseki Interpretation</strong>. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/NISTOR.IONUT_.png"><img title="NISTOR.IONUT" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/NISTOR.IONUT_.png" alt="" width="90" height="103" /></a>Dr. Ionut Nistor is the co-author of Performance Cycles paper published in Kyoto Economics Journal in March 2009. Ionut is a professor of Corporate Finance at Babes -Bolyai University and a post doctorate fellow at the Kobe University in Japan. He is fluent in Japanese, Romanian and English.</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/about-us/research-papers/">The Bric Model from a Japanese Perspective<br />
</a><a href="http://econohistory.com/?s=Ionut+Nistor">Ionut Nistor &#8211; Econohistory</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/24/sensationalizing-the-crude/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Quarterly Jiseki + Indian Sectors</title>
		<link>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/23/quarterly-jiseki-indian-sectors/</link>
		<comments>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/23/quarterly-jiseki-indian-sectors/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 May 2012 04:03:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Orpheus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Updates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://orpheus.asia/?p=11600</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#160; &#160; Early this year we mentioned that the one of the reasons Indian market continue to underperform is the quarterly Jiseki rankings. Most of the Indian sector indices were above 70. Even now after a few months, the rankings have just marginally changed. Most of Indian sector indices continues to be expensive compared to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/1-2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11601" title="1 (2)" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/1-2.png" alt="" width="720" height="415" /></a></p>
<p>Early this year we mentioned that the one of the reasons Indian market continue to underperform is the quarterly Jiseki rankings. Most of the Indian sector indices were above 70. Even now after a few months, the rankings have just marginally changed. Most of Indian sector indices continues to be expensive compared to it’s peer. This was one of the reasons we selectively went short on Metals, Oil and suggested IT to be topping. We had no long idea among the top IT majors. This special issue looks at the top 10 Indian sectors. The aim is to answer the following questions?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>1) Are NIFTY new lows possible?<br />
2) Where and when is the Nifty going to bottom?<br />
3) How does this situation change sectorally?<br />
4) What are the levels?<br />
5) What do the Jiseki cycle signals suggest?.</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/contact/">Mail us for subscription details</a> or download the report from our <a href="https://commerce.us.reuters.com/purchase/advancedSearch.do?providerList=38902">Reuters store</a>.</p>
<p>Our<strong> Jiseki Time cycles</strong> are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.</p>
<p><strong>Jiseki Interpretation</strong>. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.</p>
<p><strong><strong></strong><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/AVINASH1.jpg"><img class="alignleft" title="AVINASH" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/AVINASH1-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="120" height="120" /></a></strong></p>
<p><strong>Avinash Barnwal </strong>is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/23/quarterly-jiseki-indian-sectors/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The ROC Bull</title>
		<link>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/21/the-roc-bull/</link>
		<comments>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/21/the-roc-bull/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 May 2012 03:44:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Orpheus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Indices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Updates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://orpheus.asia/?p=11594</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#160; Rate of Change is an Oscillator. Oscillators are indicators that are designed to determine whether a market is &#8220;overbought&#8221; or &#8220;oversold.“ An oscillator is generally plotted at the bottom of a graph, below the price action. As the name implies, an oscillator is an indicator that goes back and forth within a range. &#8220;Overbought&#8221; [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/112.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11595" title="1" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/112.png" alt="" width="606" height="410" /></a></p>
<p>Rate of Change is an Oscillator. Oscillators are indicators that are designed to determine whether a market is &#8220;overbought&#8221; or &#8220;oversold.“ An oscillator is generally plotted at the bottom of a graph, below the price action. As the name implies, an oscillator is an indicator that goes back and forth within a range. &#8220;Overbought&#8221; and &#8220;oversold&#8221; conditions (the market extremes) are indicated by the extreme values of the oscillator. In other words, as the market moves from overbought, to fairly valued, to oversold, the indicators have different ranges in which they vary. Often, the oscillator will be scaled to range from 100 to -100 or 1 to -1, but it can also be unbounded (without a fixed range) like the rate of change.</p>
<p>The above was the conventional interpretation, non conventionally a ROC can be also used as a cycle. Because just like a cycle, the ROC oscillated from a bottom to a top and back. Here we have also plotted the yearly ROC on the DOW Jones Industrial average. The aim is to understand a large cycle on the global popular indices. And whether the cycle is bottoming or topping? Whether we are in a period of extended uncertainty or is it a great bottoming opportunity in a few weeks? One should remember that sentiment is not going to be positive at a market or cycle low. The larger or more significant the low, the more worried and negative the sentiment.</p>
<p>ROC and momentums are used for a default 14 periods. The yearly ROC here is for 14 years. This gives it a cycle of an average 28 years (14*2). Sometime the cycle becomes a bit larger and sometimes a bit smaller than the average 30 years. As you can see the last ROC cycle started in 1982 and is finishing now in 2012. This is 30 years. The last one started in 1942 and was a 40 year cycle.</p>
<p>There is another key observation that is visible here. A falling ROC from 2000 high has not accompanied a falling price. This same thing happened in 1965 to 1982. What does a falling ROC without falling prices mean? Despite negative seasonality, negative time, markets hold firm ground and choose to stagnate rather than fall. When markets choose to retrace in time rather than retrace in time, it’s sign of strength, consolidation and accumulation rather than otherwise. It is always essential to look at the larger picture, because larger trend dictates the smaller trend. Now with markets reeling under negativity, the short term outlook seems negative. But this larger annual outlook suggests that larger multi year trend is still positive on DOW. This report carries a ROC outlook for India, China, Brazil, MSCI Asia and Eastern Europe.</p>
<p>To read the latest report download it from our<a href="https://commerce.us.reuters.com/purchase/advancedSearch.do?providerList=38902"> Reuters Store</a> or <a href="http://orpheus.asia/contact/">mail us for subscription details.</a></p>
<p>Our<strong> Jiseki Time cycles</strong> are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.</p>
<p><strong>Jiseki Interpretation</strong>. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.</p>
<p><a href="http://updates.orpheus.asia/wp-content/up_files/2010/07/domnita.pascut1.bmp"><img class="alignleft" title="domnita.pascut" src="http://updates.orpheus.asia/wp-content/up_files/2010/07/domnita.pascut1.bmp" alt="" width="138" height="155" /></a></p>
<p>Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals.  Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. She worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/21/the-roc-bull/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Short Review</title>
		<link>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/18/the-short-review/</link>
		<comments>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/18/the-short-review/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 May 2012 03:31:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Orpheus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Updates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://orpheus.asia/?p=11590</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Now that Nifty is below 5,000 levels for the second consecutive week, we are revisiting some of the short ideas. Why did we select these five stocks? These are underperformers that should fall more than Nifty. The respective stocks have already given negative price confirmation. They are still above 60 percentile rankings and hence have [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Now that Nifty is below 5,000 levels for the second consecutive week, we are revisiting some of the short ideas. Why did we select these five stocks?</p>
<p>These are underperformers that should fall more than Nifty.<br />
The respective stocks have already given negative price confirmation.<br />
They are still above 60 percentile rankings and hence have downside potential.<br />
Only one of the five short ideas has outperformed Nifty since 2009.<br />
Rest of them are still overpriced compared to the benchmark.</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/110.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11591" title="1" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/110.png" alt="" width="601" height="332" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/111.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11592" title="1" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/111.png" alt="" width="606" height="390" /></a></p>
<p>To read the latest report download it from our<a href="https://commerce.us.reuters.com/purchase/advancedSearch.do?providerList=38902"> Reuters Store</a> or <a href="http://orpheus.asia/contact/">mail us for subscription details.</a></p>
<p>Our<strong> Jiseki Time cycles</strong> are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.</p>
<p><strong>Jiseki Interpretation</strong>. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.</p>
<p><strong>Coverage India: </strong>CNX100, BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/ANNA.MARIA_.MICHESAN.png"><img class="alignleft" title="ANNA.MARIA.MICHESAN" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/ANNA.MARIA_.MICHESAN-150x150.png" alt="" width="63" height="63" /></a></p>
<p>Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/18/the-short-review/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Bovespa Anticipated and Happened</title>
		<link>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/16/bovespa-anticipated-and-happened-2/</link>
		<comments>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/16/bovespa-anticipated-and-happened-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 May 2012 16:59:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Orpheus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Indices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Updates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://orpheus.asia/?p=11585</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#160; Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/BOVESPA1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11588" title="BOVESPA" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/BOVESPA1.png" alt="" width="573" height="832" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Our Jiseki Time cycles</strong> are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.</p>
<p><strong>Jiseki Interpretation.</strong> Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.</p>
<p><strong>Coverage Global</strong>: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Dan-Rusu...jpg"><img title="Dan-Rusu.." src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Dan-Rusu...jpg" alt="" width="98" height="120" /></a>Dan-Andrei Rusu</strong> graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers&#8217; Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/16/bovespa-anticipated-and-happened-2/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The billion dollar filter</title>
		<link>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/16/the-billion-dollar-filter/</link>
		<comments>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/16/the-billion-dollar-filter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 May 2012 04:39:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Orpheus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Updates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://orpheus.asia/?p=11573</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The most interesting part of our work is to think about a query and filter out ideas. And when I mean query, I mean just anything linked to a time series, be it technical, sentimental, fundamental or statistical. So what did we do today? We said let’s put a billion dollar filter and sort out [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/19.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11574" title="1" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/19.png" alt="" width="574" height="301" /></a></p>
<p>The most interesting part of our work is to think about a query and filter out ideas. And when I mean query, I mean just anything linked to a time series, be it technical, sentimental, fundamental or statistical. So what did we do today? We said let’s put a billion dollar filter and sort out companies from BSE500 that have Price/Book less than 1 and then analyse them based on rankings and technicals. So what have we achieved? We have a query that uses fundamentals, economic value (market capitalization) along with statistical rankings to judge potential outperformers. Because it’s not just about inexpensive value, it is also about extreme reversion (when the worst will start outperforming). And just to make sure we are picking up large companies we put the billion dollar filter.</p>
<p>So what did we observe?</p>
<p>To read the latest report download it from our<a href="https://commerce.us.reuters.com/purchase/advancedSearch.do?providerList=38902"> Reuters Store</a> or <a href="http://orpheus.asia/contact/">mail us for subscription details.</a></p>
<p>Our<strong> Jiseki Time cycles</strong> are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.</p>
<p><strong>Jiseki Interpretation</strong>. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.</p>
<p><a href="http://updates.orpheus.asia/wp-content/up_files/2010/07/domnita.pascut1.bmp"><img class="alignleft" title="domnita.pascut" src="http://updates.orpheus.asia/wp-content/up_files/2010/07/domnita.pascut1.bmp" alt="" width="138" height="155" /></a></p>
<p>Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals.  Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. She worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/16/the-billion-dollar-filter/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Orpheus Risk Management Index &#8211; India (200)</title>
		<link>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/15/orpheus-risk-management-index-india-200/</link>
		<comments>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/15/orpheus-risk-management-index-india-200/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 04:25:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Orpheus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Updates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://orpheus.asia/?p=11570</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Risk management should be a key objective for all market participants. Because there are five aspects of markets i.e. small gain, small loss, no change, big change and big loss. To remain in the investment arena one needs to just focus on one and one thing only, avoiding the big loss. If we can avoid [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/ORMI.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11571" title="ORMI" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/ORMI.png" alt="" width="544" height="321" /></a></p>
<p>Risk management should be a key objective for all market participants. Because there are five aspects of markets i.e. small gain, small loss, no change, big change and big loss. To remain in the investment arena one needs to just focus on one and one thing only, avoiding the big loss. If we can avoid the big loss we can accumulate consistent wealth. For us avoiding this big loss is search for Alpha.</p>
<p>There are various ways to reduce risk, diversification, value picking etc. We at Orpheus combine diversification and value picking with seasonality and statistics. We use various conventional approaches in a statistical framework to diversify and filter out assets. The objective is to reduce risk. This is why we call this indexing approach as Orpheus Risk Management Indices.</p>
<p>Here we have taken Indian top 200 assets and filtered them using performance parameters like performance cyclicality (worst becomes best), relative outperformance and a few price trend filters. Not so surprisingly the ORMI India delivered 235% since 2007. Nifty delivered 26% for that period.</p>
<p>The strengths of ORMI India. It filters out the outperformers. It illustrates how even in a falling market, there can be absolute winners. Despite the crisis the ORMI India dipped 7% only.</p>
<p>What are the weaknesses? It is an active Index, with average holding periods around 90 days. It filters out most of the stocks and only holds a few components. In case markets get more negative and the Index fails to filter out absolute outperformers, the Index will increase it’s cash component. We plan to increase the universe to BSE 500 and the size of the selected components to 30.</p>
<p>As we improve and enhance the Index construction, we will release new versions, sector and global indices. The latest ALPHA carried the current running components and units.</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/contact/">Mail us for subscription details</a> or download the report from our <a href="https://commerce.us.reuters.com/purchase/advancedSearch.do?providerList=38902">Reuters store</a>.</p>
<p>Our<strong> Jiseki Time cycles</strong> are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.</p>
<p><strong>Jiseki Interpretation</strong>. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.</p>
<p><strong><strong></strong><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/AVINASH1.jpg"><img class="alignleft" title="AVINASH" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/AVINASH1-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="120" height="120" /></a></strong></p>
<p><strong>Avinash Barnwal </strong>is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/15/orpheus-risk-management-index-india-200/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Is Gold Stomach Full?</title>
		<link>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/14/is-gold-stomach-full/</link>
		<comments>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/14/is-gold-stomach-full/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2012 03:48:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Orpheus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Updates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://orpheus.asia/?p=11565</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Any pattern assumes predictive power when it repeats, is cyclical. Another way to understand this is through buyer – seller psychology. Buyers can not be always in charge and vice versa. Even psychology itself is cyclical, patterns are connected to psychology. Today we look at a pattern called ‘the full stomach’. Candlestick theory states that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/18.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11566" title="1" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/18.png" alt="" width="579" height="406" /></a></p>
<p>Any pattern assumes predictive power when it repeats, is cyclical. Another way to understand this is through buyer – seller psychology. Buyers can not be always in charge and vice versa. Even psychology itself is cyclical, patterns are connected to psychology. Today we look at a pattern called ‘the full stomach’. Candlestick theory states that after about eight to ten new highs or lows, without a meaningful correction, the odds are strong that a significant correction will unfold. Each new high or new low for the move is called a &#8220;new record high&#8221; or &#8220;new record low&#8221; by the Japanese. Thus the Japanese will say there are ten record highs or lows, meaning there were a series of ten higher highs or lower lows. If there are, say, eight new highs without a meaningful correction, the Japanese refer to the market by using the expression &#8220;the stomach is 80% full.&#8221; What is interesting about the gold chart below is that prices have 10 year successive gold record highs.</p>
<p>This suggests that Gold may be with a stomach 80% full. These are yearly charts and the current 2012 price chart is barely half way through. In any case a negative year does not seem like an impossibility. Now that prices are below 1,600, further negative confirmation might take Gold to 1,400 levels or even lower. There is another thing one has to understand. Though a stomach full pattern might suggest a reversal (upward or downward) a reversal can be even a sideways price action. In case a reversal becomes deep and more than 61.8% of the previous move, we can even consider it a reversal in trend. The current report has taken a few Indian and global equity and commodity Indices to understand their respective outlooks.</p>
<p>To read the latest report download it from our<a href="https://commerce.us.reuters.com/purchase/advancedSearch.do?providerList=38902"> Reuters Store</a> or <a href="http://orpheus.asia/contact/">mail us for subscription details.</a></p>
<p>Our<strong> Jiseki Time cycles</strong> are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.</p>
<p><strong>Jiseki Interpretation</strong>. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.</p>
<p><strong>Coverage India: </strong>CNX100, BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/ANNA.MARIA_.MICHESAN.png"><img class="alignleft" title="ANNA.MARIA.MICHESAN" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/ANNA.MARIA_.MICHESAN-150x150.png" alt="" width="63" height="63" /></a></p>
<p>Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/14/is-gold-stomach-full/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Weight of Evidence</title>
		<link>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/13/weight-of-evidence/</link>
		<comments>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/13/weight-of-evidence/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 May 2012 15:52:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Orpheus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Updates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://orpheus.asia/?p=11554</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#160; It’s the very nature of market to be excited. It feeds on excitement. Last week’s negative price action has got some Bear’s excited. But what is going to happen does not depend one day or a week or a month of negativity, but weight of evidence. Which means that more indications should point to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/17.png"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-11558" title="1" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/17.png" alt="" width="704" height="501" /></a></p>
<p>It’s the very nature of market to be excited. It feeds on excitement. Last week’s negative price action has got some Bear’s excited. But what is going to happen does not depend one day or a week or a month of negativity, but weight of evidence. Which means that more indications should point to a reversal than otherwise. Investors or traders should wait for a clear picture of a trend reversal because the goal is not to confuse a true reversal in the primary trend with a secondary trend or brief correction. Remember that a secondary trend is a move in the opposite direction of the primary trend that will not continue.</p>
<p>The last time we talked about role reversal. The respective support reversals still stand firm and are unbroken. We need a clear break at DOW 12,800 and S&amp;P500 1,350 to look for some multi week negativity. Till then it’s all a negative excitement which is more potential than real.</p>
<p>Even if we look at the commodity trends, falling Crude and stagnating Gold continues to suggest reduced fear in the global markets. Above this the relative trend of Brazilian Bovespa seems to have bottomed against the Shanghai Index. The Chinese SSEC is at a historical 20 year underperformance low vs. Bovespa. Now this is one weight of evidence that suggests that China could outperform Brazilian Bovespa. If this is happening it is a big positive for the global equity and continued underperformance for commodity markets. The Indian market continues to reel under selling pressure falling below key 17,000 supports. On a retracement level this is still less that 50% fall of the upmove from start of the year. We continue to look at the ongoing down leg on India as a counter trend move which should bottom near current levels.</p>
<p>To read the latest report download it from our<a href="https://commerce.us.reuters.com/purchase/advancedSearch.do?providerList=38902"> Reuters Store</a> or <a href="http://orpheus.asia/contact/">mail us for subscription details.</a></p>
<p>Our<strong> Jiseki Time cycles</strong> are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.</p>
<p><strong>Jiseki Interpretation</strong>. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/NISTOR.IONUT_.png"><img title="NISTOR.IONUT" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/NISTOR.IONUT_.png" alt="" width="90" height="103" /></a>Dr. Ionut Nistor is the co-author of Performance Cycles paper published in Kyoto Economics Journal in March 2009. Ionut is a professor of Corporate Finance at Babes -Bolyai University and a post doctorate fellow at the Kobe University in Japan. He is fluent in Japanese, Romanian and English.</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/about-us/research-papers/">The Bric Model from a Japanese Perspective<br />
</a><a href="http://econohistory.com/?s=Ionut+Nistor">Ionut Nistor &#8211; Econohistory</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/13/weight-of-evidence/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Complex Corrective</title>
		<link>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/11/the-complex-corrective/</link>
		<comments>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/11/the-complex-corrective/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 May 2012 03:46:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Orpheus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research Updates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://orpheus.asia/?p=11551</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#160; To read the latest report download it from our Reuters Store or mail us for subscription details. Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11552" title="1" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/15.png" alt="" width="716" height="700" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>To read the latest report download it from our<a href="https://commerce.us.reuters.com/purchase/advancedSearch.do?providerList=38902"> Reuters Store</a> or <a href="http://orpheus.asia/contact/">mail us for subscription details.</a></p>
<p>Our<strong> Jiseki Time cycles</strong> are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.</p>
<p><strong>Jiseki Interpretation</strong>. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1&gt;Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.</p>
<p><strong>Coverage India: </strong>CNX100, BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.</p>
<p><a href="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/ANNA.MARIA_.MICHESAN.png"><img class="alignleft" title="ANNA.MARIA.MICHESAN" src="http://orpheus.asia/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/ANNA.MARIA_.MICHESAN-150x150.png" alt="" width="63" height="63" /></a></p>
<p>Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/11/the-complex-corrective/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>

<!-- Dynamic page generated in 0.292 seconds. -->
<!-- Cached page generated by WP-Super-Cache on 2012-05-24 05:49:22 -->
<!-- Compression = gzip -->
