The EUR USD pair is in an ongoing TRIANGLE structure. TRIANGLE are five legged counter trend structure (a-b-c-d-e). The e leg falls around 1.305 levels. This is a turn around level for us. There are many reasons why we think the currency is an ongoing counter trend corrective structure, which is preparing to turn down back to sub 1.23 previous low levels.

Corrective structures are clearly overlapping, like the current case. Prices are moving between 1.31 – 1.24 levels since 27 OCT. The larger the sideways action bigger the trend after it. The current sideways formation of nearly two months could give at least a multi week of trend down. TRIANGLE (SLIDE 1) are also continuation patterns. The previous trend remains down and this is where the current formation should resolve.

Moreover, our PREFERRED negative view on the pair is validated by the over reactive momentum. RSI, MACD and most of the oscillators are moving disproportionately against the price. This means that prices are indeed corrective in nature. Above this we also have the psychological primary symmetry, which suggests 1.2 levels sub 1.35 levels (SLIDE 2)

A similar aspect of over reactive momentum can also be seen on the dollar index (SLIDE 3). In case the respective turn level fails to push prices dollar, the counter trend structure could see a push up higher till 1.33-1.325 levels. After which we still see a lower resolution. A push higher above 1.305 still remains a low probability scenario for us.

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[bold]WAVES.FOREX[/bold] is a perspective product published five days a week. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (eg. EURO USD, DOLLAR INDEX, YEN USD, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc, Hungarian Forint, Croatian Kuna, Canadian Dollar). The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 10 December 2008 | Comments (0)

Tags: USD

Categories: Forex

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…the DOW bottom. If markets could not have got more complex for GOLD BULLS, our intermarket cycles desk has initiated a LONG SILVER, SHORT GOLD signal. Though the signal was cooking for sometime since we gave our SILVER TURNS UP update (WAVES.GOLD.311008), we were waiting for more confirmation regarding a turn up on the silver performance cycle against Gold.

An Intermarket CYCLE signal is a lot different than a normal price or momentum signal. Here we are looking at performance time cycles. Silver and Gold have a performance cyclicality against each other. After a fixed period one asset from the pair outperforms the other. Silver shows a 5.5 average cyclicality against Gold. The last time Silver hit a performance low against Gold was in Mar 2003. Though the illustrated chart is of a larger time frame, the DAILY and MINOR charts have already given a turn signal. Month over Month, high to low, Gold fell 15% and 6% in Nov and now in Dec respectively. While Silver fell 18% and 7% for the same period. The relative trend should change in favor of Silver. The white metal should rise more than Gold or fall less then the yellow metal.

It was on 13 Nov 2006, we published ‘The Gold Silver’ ratio when we said “The price relationship between Gold and Silver is not fixed? It varies substantially. And it has predictive value too…. “ Then in 21 April 2008 we said “The Gold-Silver ratio, we highlighted last time (The Metals Maze) gave no signal of a collapse. Rather the sentiment indicator has moved unfazed despite millions going homeless and more than 100,000 losing their financial jobs (more serious than the tech bust). This means two things, one that the Gold-Silver ratio has stopped working after predicting the 1980s and 2000s crash or second the crisis has not yet started. “

What happened after MAY 2008 was much worse than what crisis we saw till then. The DOW collapsed 42% since MAY 2008. This collapse was accompanied by the rise in the Gold –Silver ratio (Fall in the Silver – Gold). Though we were inappropriately connecting fall in Gold prices as cause for delayed recession, the intermarket cycle between Gold and Silver was working perfectly. The ratio line started moving up perfectly before the big crash. Now on most performance measures the relationship between the two metals is stretched and at an extreme. And if our other inter market pairs like S&P 500 vs. Dow and BSE 500 vs. Sensex have some merit, the Long Silver – Short Gold should be accompanied by a rise in the equity market worldwide including the DOW. We have carried the DOW along with the silver vs. gold cycle oscillator in the report. The oscillator low timed most of the DOW primary and intermediate lows since 1980 (last four occasions). We are betting on a low again. Meanwhile Gold and Silver continue to move as anticipated. Though both the metals seem to be in an ongoing corrective formation, we are still expecting SILVER to continue to hold above previous lows.

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WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Monday and Wednesday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 04 December 2008 | Comments (0)

Tags: Dow, gold, silver

Categories: Metal Pairs

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What happened was sad. But unfortunately such actions of terror are created by the society itself. Though extreme, terror is human expression of revolt. Terror is a mass psychology event as it influences masses, creating panic and despair in them. One of our members mentioned that he was sorry about the state of the world. Though painful, social mood is not just expressed in markets, it’s also expressed through politics, war, terror and in many other forms.

Terror could be explained from a social mood perspective (negative mood) and from cycles. International battles, wars and terror activities are cyclical too. And social mood has a strong bearing on economic cycles, rather they drive them. Extreme terror actions and war’s historically suggest extreme social mood and reversals rather than otherwise. We see more wars and terrors at market bottoms than near tops.

Though the large cycle on terror unfortunately continues to point up, the current terror action in INDIA, comes at a time when we are looking at equity market intermediate bottoms. How this shameful event translates in market tomorrow remains to be seen. But any bounces on market (if any) will not be a classical Mumbai resilience, but extreme social negativity which coincided with a broad market low.

GOLD a crisis commodity will also be effected by the large cycle of terror or negative social mood. But the current upside on GOLD SPOT India has weak links with the onging activity. We compare two Gold assets from different regions, viz. GOLD spot India against GOLD international. As the local financial crisis gets mixed with a large scale terror violence in the city. But GOLD India spot has been outperforming GOLD international spot since MAY 2008 and seems to be heading into a cycle performance high against it’s international peer.

This suggests that local GOLD performance maybe a weak proxy for start of a sustained uptrend on international GOLD prices. The signal might be premature. The performance cycle between local and international prices (illustrated) of Gold suggest that INDIA GOLD may find some tough resistance ahead at INR 13,362 prices. Till prices break the respective level, we will continue looking at the current bounce back as a counter trend bounce on Gold INDIA spot. Regarding international GOLD spot, prices moved up as anticipated to our projected targets near 800 levels and higher. The bounce back seems incomplete and could see XAU pushing higher till 850 levels.

Silver on the other hand held above our anticipated supports and a support at RSI 40, NON CONFIRMATION and extreme oversold momentum, all suggest that our SILVER positive case continues to hold firm. SILVER INDIA spot also has hit a key primary channel support and has made a weekly KEY REVERSAL bar. XAG push up above dollar 10.5-11 would give us further positive price confirmation. Platinum, ZINC and Steel prices last week action was also as anticipated.

On the large time frame, if GOLD dollar 3000 still seems a distant projection, look at what a handful of boat terrorists can do to a city. A multifold projection of this event and you will understand the respective projections on International GOLD. The price of the crisis asset is linked with an impending large degree social crisis that may manifest in an alternate form or as a war. This will bring back to life the famous words of Edward R Dewey, “Till humans live, they will speculate and war”.

Enjoy the latest [a href="http://www.or-phe-us.com/orpheus/page.php?tabid=7&categ_id=323"]WAVES.GOLD[/a]

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Monday and Wednesday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 27 November 2008 | Comments (0)

Tags: psychology

Categories: Soft Pairs

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In a world of failing banks and historical unemployment, hedge funds are organizing more go to Jesus meetings (Bloomberg News). Conventionalism has hit a low and news is lost. However, even in these times markets continue to deliver superior returns, only that the approach is not conventional. It was using the ALTERNATIVE RESEARCH approach we wrote about Gold vs. Oil, on 30 Jun 2007, when we said

“Current intermarket situation seems skewed in favor of gold, as its the underdog of multi years. So it’s ‘Long gold, short oil’ strategy.”

The intermarket cycle strategy pair delivered 60% in little over 15 months. These were spot returns in a time when markets around the world have collapsed by a similar amount. The illustration of BRENT vs. GOLD (slide 1) clearly highlights the BRT collapse against GOLD.

We got such returns because of the faster fall on OIL compared to GOLD. BRENT has pushed to 50 dollars as anticipated last time (SPEED LIMIT AT 50). But prices broke the anticipated support at 49 and pushed lower till 44.59. Why did such a key level break? The only answer we have for this is that the 4 primary circle wave (slide 2) is a large preferred primary corrective. And correctives are tricky, so if this is indeed leg A of a large triangle (A-B-C-D-E), prices could indeed move in an overlapping complex structure disobeying any conventional support or resistance. Moreover, 4 primary circle support is a guideline and no rule, the guideline was marginally breached this time. But OIL is back above 50.

XLE, XOM, CVX also seem to have hit primary bottoms and might be headed higher to projected targets. The GOLD VS OIL equation also seems to be hitting Intermediate lows. This means that it might be too early to call the GOLD primary Bear trend over(FOOL’S GOLD) and too soon to call OIL sub 50 a certainty. A sustained move up above 50 would mean that the anticipated multi week bounce might be in.

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ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 25 November 2008 | Comments (0)

Categories: Cross Pairs

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Conviction is a strange thing, it tests you, your determination, your home work, your skill, how individual you are and how patient you are wearing the FOOL’s CROWN. It does one more thing, it makes you extremely individual, probably alone (when you are right), screaming sell at a top and buy at a bottom. But then markets are strange beings, the top is followed by another top and bottom by another low. The line between conviction and foolishness becoming blurred every time the prices move against you.

Against all odds, we continue to believe, selling in such times is like ‘SELLING A TROUGH’. It is poor risk management, to sell the prototypical bottomless pit. Every pit has a bottom. And the 10 year bottom of DOW is 6% away. If you think that makes you rich, you are fooling yourself. After falling for nearly 12 months with extreme oversold momentums, S&P 500 hitting an underperformance low against DOW, markets moving into positive annual seasonality, oscillators mildly over reactive, it’s too late to sell on fundamentals or technicals anyway.

Just to be sure that we can continue to hold our POSITIVE CALL across the globe for a while more, we inverted the DOW charts. We really don’t see a collapse of DOW below 7,500. It’s an ending five, accompanied by failing momentums. Above that we are still above OCT LOWS on INDIA, ROMANIA, RUSSIA, CHINA, BRAZIL and JAPAN. Even if we are wrong, and markets do indeed push more than 10% lower from here, we rather wait for this collapse than SELL NOW.

Last time we looked at S&P vs. DOW cyclicality. This time we had a look at BSE 500 vs. SENSEX (India). And we see the same thing yet again. The broad market is turning up against the blue chips. Our positive call stands negated below DOW 7,500.

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WAVES.GLOBAL – WAVES.GLB is a perspective product published on Monday. The report highlights top GLOBAL indices and emerging market indices viz. Dow Jones Industrial (.DJI), S&P 500 (.GSPC), German DAX (.GDAXI), Russian IRTS (.IRTS), Shanghai Composite (.SSEC), Nikkei 225 (.N225), Brazil BOVESPA (.BVSP), Indian Sensex (.BSESN). The product covers all the DOW 30 stocks. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers and market trends.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 20 November 2008 | Comments (0)

Categories: Accuracy Global, Global Indices

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This is a harsh reality, but masses don’t understand cycles and the uncanny asset linkages. The fact is that we at Orpheus too are also scratching the surface. Though there are market timing models, timing the market in future with a small time window of a few days, is a skill we look up to. As of now, we know only a few who can do this consistently. We attempted timing the market with a calendar month in JULY, when we talked about OCT LOWS. And it was only in our last mail that we mentioned that the cycle low was still unwinding and OCT lows could be marginally breached. The reality is that DOW 10 OCT low still stands firm. And the marginal breach we talked about did not happen on DOW but on S&P.

The 27 OCT Low on INDIA pushed Index prices up 45%. A similar time window saw ROMANIAN Indices pushing up 70%. And this also happened on many other indices across the globe. We witnessed ‘first five’ in many our assets and regions we tracked, and INDIA with all its B MINOR wave uncertainty continues to show a lot of resilience. Even NIKKEI seems to make a PREFERRED ‘first five’ up. With all this activity and non confirmation between INDICES like S&P and DOW, engulfing bullish formations on FTSE and CAC, positive moving average crossovers on many emerging market stocks, KEY REVERSAL BARS across INDICES on weekly time frames, decade high volatility panic just behind us, most DOW 30 stocks suggesting that ADVANCE-DECLINE data is too skewed on the negative side, OIL and GOLD still on the negative territory and the primary bear more than a year old, we continue to believe that the multi quarter bounce back is here. The current entry points remain a low risk entry point and AMERICAN markets and global markets have hit at least an INTERMEDIATE BOTTOM. Primary? Maybe.

If there is any BULLISH REPRIEVE, it should be now. And I don’t think BULLS would like to waste their few quarters of chance they need to survive in an otherwise long secular bear market. There is one more intermarket reason. Though S&P has historically underperformed DOW, the index has a performance – underperformance cyclicality against DOW. The pair has also hit a CYCLE low, both on an intermediate and primary basis. This suggests that the broad 500 blue chips can’t underperform the top 30 blue chips of the world any more. And what do we need for a turn around? We need the broad market to rise. And this is what we feel should happen.

The report carries anticipated and happened cases on INTEL. “We highlighted Intel anticipated case in WAVES.GLB.050808 issue when at 22.52 we said that Intel should move up in an A-B-C corrective up till 26 before turning down. Correctives are counter trends which are short-lived. After which the trend resumes. This is what happened as prices moved back below 18.5 and are now pushing lower potentially till Oct 2002 low at 12.95. These are the last support standing for Intel. A break here can see Intel push lower till 10.” Prices hit a low of 12.87 yesterday. This was below the 09 OCT 2002 low. We have also carried another anticipated and happened case on BANK OF AMERICA.

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WAVES.GLOBAL – WAVES.GLB is a perspective product published on Monday. The report highlights top GLOBAL indices and emerging market indices viz. Dow Jones Industrial (.DJI), S&P 500 (.GSPC), German DAX (.GDAXI), Russian IRTS (.IRTS), Shanghai Composite (.SSEC), Nikkei 225 (.N225), Brazil BOVESPA (.BVSP), Indian Sensex (.BSESN). The product covers all the DOW 30 stocks. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers and market trends.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 15 November 2008 | Comments (0)

Categories: Accuracy Global, Global Indices

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Historical Call – It was at the FIA (Futures Industry Association) CONFERENCE on OCT 17-19 2006, Hilton Towers, Mumbai, we were asked about ZINC. For us it was a euphoric move up and unsustainable. The five wave up were complete and prices coiling up in a B wave retest back to previous highs. We saw the C crash pending on Hindustan Zinc. And so this is what we said, “ZINC is coming down”. This evoked a shock in the Hedge Fund, Researcher who starting telling us numbers linked with Demand and Supply. Basically he was trying to debate, “How can it fall?” The classic question asked to cyclists, alternative researchers and fractal watchers.

Well! we came out with our ZINC special on 1 NOV 2006. And this is what we said. “Even if ZINC and related assets have some upside left we should see a multi month easing before a real move up re-exerts itself”.

14 Nov (Ouch It’s the smelter), we came with the second update. “At this stage it seems Hindustan Zinc (HZNC) has turned. Now if you were a traditional researcher you would be waiting for ZINC to turn before selling HZNC. This is extrapolation. For us HZNC can tell you more about ZINC reversals than vice versa. And below 900, its 840 for HZNC and below 840, its 660.” The stock was falling despite a rising market. 14 Feb 2007, (Zinced on Valentines) we came with the third update. If you bought ZINC because of the Zinifex-Umicore merger, thinking the largest ZINC producer in the world (Reuters-12 Dec) might give you some portfolio efficiency…we are sorry…you might have to wait. Another 100 or 200 points, HZNC at 500 or 400 should be more attractive.

It’s two years, since our Nov 2006 call on ZINC. After making a low of 238 on 30 OCT, the prices are now at 315. Zinc international spot prices and Hindustan Zinc have retraced 78.6% of it’s all time rise. Now what? Just like, “How can it fall?” mass psychology also suffers from the “How can it rise syndrome?” And deep 78.6% retracements are capitulation collapses characteristic of CYCLE II waves. How can we be sure this is CYCLE II wave and not a SUPERCYCLE II, which should keep prices suppressed for more than a few years? The answer to this can be given by intermarket relationships. First. Gold, the sector leader has not collapsed and suggests a sectoral premium. Second. Gold cycle of 30 years can’t get over in 10 years. Third. Rise of Gold creates more reasons for a hyperinflationary depression than deflationary depression. The former pushes metals and commodities higher. Fourth: If Oil is rising to 500 (OIL in 2012), it reinforces the commodity, Gold and metals case. Fifth: The 30 year commodity cycle coinciding with the 90 years Strauss and Howe cycle in 2024-2030 is when we should head for a SUPERCYLE crash. Till then all base and precious metals collapse seem to be a low risk entry points for multi years till 2012-2015.

There is nothing wrong with conventional reasoning, it’s just that the conventionalism is colored by euphoric and panic drivers. Emerging markets have a lot of incomplete infrastructural projects that will take years to complete. Even if the conventional auto manufacturers will die (if not already dead), green car manufacturing will keep the need for metals high. Zinc has a high linkage with Steel, Rubber, Paints, Shampoos, Cough Drops etc. The base metal also has a strong biological role. Hence the question “How can it rise?” is a self created mass psychology illusion. Silver continues to lead the rest of the metals. Barring Gold, which still seems to have downside left, the rest of the metals complex remain a ‘DOWN BUT BOTTOMING’ scenario for us.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GOLD.101108

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Monday and Wednesday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 10 November 2008 | Comments (0)

Tags: zinc

Categories: Metals

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The 140% annual gain on First Solar, a solar major, pails every other asset price performance. Vestas wind another wind major returned 62% annual gains. And this was not all, there are atleast 10 multi billion dollar alternative energy majors with barely 15-20% drops this year. This clearly highlights the alternative energy out-performance compared to the returns on other conventional energy and available investible assets.

But it was not all positive for the GREEN SECTOR. BIOX the bioenergy Index has collapsed and so has the ISE Global wind energy index. The backlash against ethanol and the connection with food prices are some sighted reasons. We at Orpheus consider the current drawdowns as normal pauses from euphoria linked with alternative energy assets since 2002. Stock performance gets polarized only after the tide turns low. The current pause filters out the best of alternative energy winners, highlighting the overall resilience in the sector and top picks from the green sector. The price formations also illustrate classic fractal structures, which are retesting previous fourth wave supports. This presents multi year primary bottoms creating buy and hold opportunities potentially till 2012.

Water has been in the news with T Boone Pickens featuring as the water king in Business week (Jun 2008). Water hype is panning out well with the performance of the water index. The world water index retraced 30% from historical highs, mostly collapsing after the respective cover page story appeared on WATER. Water outperformed Oil from 2004-2007 and now is underperforming Oil in the intermarket cycle. We have not hit a bottom yet on water. Other intermarket ratio clearly brings out the leading sector validating the solar case. Solar has outperformed Oil since inception of the Solar Index in 200X. SOLAR index has also outperformed wind, bioenergy, and water. And even Intermediate RSI momentum suggests that we are ready for another leg higher before anything. The preferred view looks more like a continuation triangle and not a distribution pattern.

We have also added some specialty chemical companies like Toray and Teijin from Japan in our Green list. Toray holds 34% of the carbon fiber market. The company is helping auto majors and airline manufacturers reduce body weight and be more fuel efficient. Teijin another high tech materials maker aims to cut the weight of the car by half, by using polycarbonate resins. Both stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock exchange are quoting at 1984 dirt cheap levels. We could not have left weather out, which is why green is the next big wave. The product also cover the London Climate Exchange stock. Currently the stock is coiling under a large distribution pattern, undergoing a corrective formation, getting ready for the next up move. The product covers the best of the green world covering a total of eight countries viz. US, UK, Germany, France, Belgium, Denmark, Japan and Brazil

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WAVES.GREEN is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index (NEX), S&P Global Clean Energy Index, ISE Global Wind Energy IndexS&P Global Water Index, UBS Diapason Global Biofuel Index, World Bio Energy Index (BIOX), MAC Global Solar Energy Index, EDF Energies Nouvelles, Theolia, Greentech Energy Systems, Vestas Wind Systems, First Solar, Cia Energetica de Minas Gerais, Hansen Transmissions International, Vestas Wind Systems, Gamesa Corp Tecnologica, Veolia Environnement, ITT, Geberit, Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cosan Industria e Comercio, Renewable Energy Corp and Q-Cells. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. The product covers the best of the green world covering a total of eight countries viz. US, UK, Germany, France, Belgium, Denmark, Japan and Brazil. We could not have left weather out, which is why green is the next big wave. The product also covers the London Climate Exchange stock.
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Author: Orpheus | Date: 02 November 2008 | Comments (0)

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Categories: GREEN

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Apart from the KEY REVERSAL bar (RIGHT), we have historical momentum lows both on daily and weekly time frame and conventional multi year supports on SILVER. Last week we mentioned the GOLD-SILVER ratio, which also suggests outperformance on SILVER. The ratio continues to suggest the turn up for SILVER.

This week we look at GOLD a bit closely. The move down seems incomplete. And now that prices have retested and breached the psychological 700, a further move down can not be ruled out. Sub 780, GOLD could be in for sub 600 levels. This might look strange, but this is what we see now. Above 780 we review. We have carried many other anticipated and happened cases on the rest of the metals complex. There is a special intermarket case on PLATINUM, which has historically outperformed both GOLD and SILVER. According to intermarket cycles, Platinum should lead Silver. The overall view on the broad metals complex continues to suggest that METALS are indeed completing the CYCLE II wave down. This is one CYCLE II low metal bulls may not like to miss.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GOLD.311008

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Monday and Wednesday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 31 October 2008 | Comments (0)

Tags: silver

Categories: Metals

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This is a normal question to ask if the top steel stocks collapse 70%. But is it really about Steel or is it linked with the CRB (Commodity Index), which retraced 50% of its gain since 1968? And now is back below 1980 highs. Or is it about Silver, an industrial metal which retraced 61.8% of it’s rise from 1991? Or is it about the Gold – Silver ratio which started rising from Dec 2006 suggesting that the prosperity was over?

Gold – Silver ratio also know as the prosperity index has indicated two previous recessions of 1990s and the 2000 slowdown in US (SLIDE 3). And the very fact that silver, a proxy for industrial metals started underperforming Gold was an indication that industrial metal should start underperforming too. As you can see Steel vs. Silver (RIGHT) is a tight pair (more correlated) than other pairs like Gold and Silver (RIGHT). The silver vs. steel intermarket ratio moves around parity more than the gold vs. silver ratio. A crack down in silver had to effect Steel and other base metals, which happened. This was also in sync with our call on CRB in July 2008, when we highlighted the impending collapse in CRB including OIL (INTERMARKET CYCLES 140708).

In April 2008 (THE METALS MAZE) we also said, “According to metals, this was no big collapse. We need another few months to see what works, the news and emotional chaos or the Gold – Silver ratio.” The Gold Silver ratio rushed up from 31 July 2008 and we all know what happened (SLIDE 3).

Now what? The answers to this question regarding Steel and base metals also comes from understanding Gold and Silver relationship and other metals. First, Gold can not keep outperforming Silver. There is an outperformance – underperformance Cycle between Gold and Silver, which is nearing an intermediate top and suggests either a fall on Gold or a push up on Silver (SLIDE 3). So in any case we should be nearing a bottom on Silver and so on for Steel, at least for an intermediate time frame. Second, After a 61.8% collapse most assets generally witnesses a respite. Third, Silver has reached a key primary level, and we see it leading metals to the next up cycle till 2015 (THE SENTIMENT THEORIST). So the first cues of a turn around should come in Silver, before bases metals and Gold turns up. Fourth, An Oct low in equities should also help the steel stocks. And a rising stock market helps steel prices more than Gold. Fifth, Silver prices have also reached all time historical oversold zones of a decade (SLIDE 13). The last two time it happened prices bounced. And we expect them to bounce again.

We have carried anticipated and happened cases on Gold and Silver. And the complete steel complex, which we see bottoming soon. Let’s see.

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Author: Orpheus | Date: 22 October 2008 | Comments (0)

Tags: steel

Categories: Metals

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