The latest ALPHA illustrates the short ideas.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage: CNX 100 components and all Indian Sector Indices.

Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 23 February 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

It’s tough for a technician to ask such questions. But then there is no stupid question. So here it goes. What’s wrong with momentum? Though conventionally momentum is understood as an oscillator that defines overbought and oversold, momentum can also be defined as a detrending cycle calculated on an asset price. When the cycle is up, prices are strong and vice versa. When the cycle reaches an extreme high, its an overbought situation and vice versa. The problem is that performance could be different at different degrees of time i.e. the trend for different degrees of time can be different. On a daily time frame performance of an asset could be overbought and ready to reverse. On a weekly time frame performance could still be positive and have no signs of reversal. On a monthly time frame performance prices may have not have completed a 24 month bear market yet. While on a quarterly time frame the asset might be already in a major multi decade bull market.

How can this happen? This does happen. And this is what momentum (say Rate of change) is suggesting on Indian Nifty. On daily it’s suggesting 5,750 as high potential resistance reversal, on weekly ROC is still positive and does not confirm the daily view that 5,750 would really be a serious resistance, monthly ROC is still negative from the 24 month bear market and still below zero line (which is conventionally interpreted as the first sign of change of trend), while quarterly ROC momentum never fell below zero after 2004 low. According to the quarterly ROC Indian markets never entered a cycle degree bear. So what is the problem? The problem is that momentum does not harness different degrees of time in one common indicator. There are special indicators like Pring’s KST that attempt to harness multiple degrees of time. Maybe this is why it’s called Know Sure Thing (KST). We need more indicators like KST because a trader does not want to look for a reversal based on daily at 5,750 and get whipsawed by a move up to 5,800 or 6,000.

We think a multi week reversal is near. March is known for reversals and we are getting our ‘short-idea’ list ready for you. Remember market’s don’t move in straight lines. No correction means violent correction. So use the current upside to reassess your winners and losers. We have carried the NIFTY update from our intra day TICKS service for you. Enjoy.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage: CNX 100 components and all Indian Sector Indices.

Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 22 February 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

I am not sure whether you would have said YES to this question start of the year. But now of course that the stock has moved 124% year to date, the buzz has started. HDIL was the worst ranking Jiseki India stock we have been mentioning as an accumulate and buy along with DLF, RLCM, PUJL, SUZL, RPOL and BSEPOWER. Guess what? All of them have outperformed NIFTY since the start of the year. And if you are wondering how you did not see it, we have carried the NIFTY chart with BSEPOWER. The power index was the least gainer from our list. Though visually NIFTY seems to have done better than BSE POWER, it’s a logarithmic illusion. It’s the latter that has outpaced the former. A traders and investors undue focus on Nifty just cost him 100% relatively. Who told him to focus on Nifty? Maybe it’s time you revisited our article  ‘Does Nifty Sleep?’ we wrote on 11 Sep 2010. 

The latest ALPHA carries the technical cases and Jiseki cycles for the worst ranking performers for CNX100…

You can also download the report from our Reuters Store

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage: CNX 100 components and all Indian Sector Indices.

Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 17 February 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

A trade can make money. But if a trade makes consistent gains, it’s a wealth generating idea. What we do at Orpheus is build systems that can help you identify outperformers, winners while reducing trading and  investment risk. How do we do it?

1)We identify least risk outliers.
2)We identify cycles of performance in those outliers to time investments.
3)We also identify trends.
4)We start with a large universe and filter to reach the final trade and investment ideas.
Now let us give you an example of this multi staged stock selection process.

To read this Long only idea special for multi-month winners mail us for subscription details.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 15 February 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Top Sector Pairs

In continuation with the sector peer pairs we carried yesterday, today we are carrying the sector indices paired vs. CNX100. Since CNX100 is a broad index, we have used it as a comparative proxy vs. all sector indices. This ALPHA report answers the following questions.

How can we use Jiseki Sector pair cycles?

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 14 February 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Just like Jiseki Time cycles and seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets, Jiseki  pair cycles are designed to explain a sector pair relationship. The latest ALPHA has carried the following Jiseki pair cycles.

1)Infosys vs.TCS  2)  ITC vs. HLL 3) M&M vs. Tata Motors. 4) Ranbaxy vs. Reddy 5) Reliance vs. ONGC  6) Wipro vs. Tech Mahindra 7 ) ICICI Bank vs. Axis Bank 8 ) HDIL vs. India Bulls Real Estate 9 ) BPCL vs. HPCL 9) Bank of India vs. Bank of Baroda 10) Bajaj vs. Hero Honda Motors.

1)We can understand which one of the sector peer is going to outperform ahead.
2)We can objectively calculate the percentage of outperformance.
3)We can anticipate a reversal in performance.
4)We can do stock selection, choosing a sector peer above the other.
5)We can create a long – short strategy using options.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 13 February 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Is  BSE OIL ready to reverse?
What are the reasons?
What does inverted OIL suggest?
What are the targets for BSEOIL in the next few months?
Where is Reliance among BSE OIL components?
What are the targets for Reliance?

To read this BSE OIL and Reliance special mail us for subscription details.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 10 February 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

1) What is Jiseki?

2) What are different kinds of Jiseki cycle time frames?

3) Different ways of reading Jiseki?

4) What does the color code suggest?

5) Which Index does the latest ALPHA cover a running short?

6) What are the stocks covered in the report?

6) When does Jiseki generate a SELL signal?

7) What is the average holding period for the illustrated trade?

8 ) What are the average gains?

We will be publishing other Jiseki cases, interpretations, more active signals and soon provide you a live system to appraise Jiseki yourself.

To read more about our JISEKI RANKINGS, Signals and queries mail us today.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 08 February 2012 | Comments (1)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Is BSE METALS an outperformer or undeperformer?

What are the reasons?

Where is TISCO among BSEMETALS?

What is the current signal status on TISCO?

How do we read the SIGNAL?

To read this Suzlon special mail us for subscription details.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 06 February 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Despite all the market knowledge, we are still so far away from asking very basic questions about market and what makes it work. Market divergence in very generic terms means the difference between the returns of two sector peers, between two sector indices, intra-market or inter-market difference. We have occasionally talked about divergence, but today we are looking at the Indian sectoral divergence comprehensively.

What did we do? We took the Indian sectoral Indices and benchmarked it vs. CNX 100. Why did we take CNX100? CNX 100 is a broad market index and hence the least volatile compared to other sectoral indices. Why were we interested to compare sector returns with the broad market index?

What is divergence?

How can you analyze it?

How much percentage can two sector peers diverge?

How is divergence connected to stock selection and sector selection?

Which is the most diverged sector in India?

Does divergence means outperformance or underperformance?

What is divergence suggesting about market direction?

To read more about our JISEKI RANKINGS, Signals and queries mail us today.

To read the complete article visit Business Standard.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 06 February 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA