What is Jiseki? It’s a performance ranking cycle indicator. What does it do? It tells us when an asset is going to underperform or out perform. Why does it work? It works because it’s based on an idea that extreme performers tend to reverse performance. How did it work for Cummins India?

This is what we said on 24 Nov 2010 almost 12 months back. “Alpha India ME – Looking for shorts – Our final short list is Cummins, Tata Motors, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda and Axis Bank.”

Cummins was at 568 in Nov 2010. The stock is down 35% since then. Now that the stock is nearing it’s 2008 highs, the latest Alpha carries a review with Jiseki latest primary (multi month) and intermediate (multi week) update along with the latest update on Nifty and another great Jiseki short .

To read the Jiseki special download the latest Alpha India.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 14 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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Pinpointing a top is always a hard exercise. It becomes harder when you want to nail a top performer. Above this tops are more volatile and sharp. This special issue on Mahindra looks at the historical price structure from 1990 from both log and arithmetic scale perspective. Mahindra is a top performer among local and global peers. It also belongs to a top performing auto sector. At Orpheus we believe that extremes just like means are prone to reversion. With both auto sector and Mahindra colored with extremity, underperformance is due for the sector and it’s top components. We look at levels, potential targets and the outlook well into 2012 and summarize it with the beautiful Weekly Jiseki Cloud, which first gave a sell signal near Jan 2007 high, a buy near 2009 lows. Though Jiseki is whipsawing now, but this seems to be a preparation for a spectacular bust. Weekly Jiseki charts move slow. We need daily Jiseki to fine tune our entries and exits. The report carries levels, rankings and the last mile technical perspective with 5 cases.

Enjoy the Mahindra Jiseki.

To read the Mahindra special download the latest Alpha India.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 11 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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Recently I have met more advisors and money managers in one place than I have ever met (call it clustering). And strangely a part of this cluster voiced lack of reverence for Warren Buffet. This was in Toronto. I was there for a conference and even a mention of Buffet evoked “I am not a fan” response. When I hear money managers saying that he did poorly on the Bank of America deal, on one side I see some criticism of what the sage is doing and on the other side I see an era of sideways market and increasing market knowledge that challenges the old thought leaders.

It’s all psychology at one level because Buffet never admitted being God. It’s the market participants who bestowed him with that status. It was also not his fault that he was 11 year old growing up in his father’s brokerage company at the end of great depression, which was incidentally also the best time in a century to buy and hold. Irrespective of Warren’s timing, there is one thing we should give him credit for. He practices what he preaches. He learnt his lessons well and understood that contrarianism works. And this is why we at Orpheus stand by him for his contrarian ability. At a certain stage contrarianism should become intuitive, especially if you have an ability to hold on to your investments for decades. Few can do this today.

At a certain stage if you can identify an extreme underperformer and have the courage to accumulate it, you don’t need anything else. Sooner or later…

Let’s take the current market for example….

To read the 8 page sector special download the latest Alpha India.

This article was written for  Business Standard.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 09 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Categories: Analytics, India, Research Updates

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To know more about NIFTY and where it is headed read our latest NIFTY special.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 06 November 2011 | Comments (2)

Categories: India, Research Updates

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Today’s Alpha India report carries technical and cycle cases on two of the best performer Indian Pharma stocks, LUPIN and SUN PHARMA. The chart below illustrates the complete Jiseki ranking of the Indian Pharma sector.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 04 November 2011 | Comments (2)

Tags: alpha, India, LE

Categories: India, Research Updates

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NSEBANK Daily. Prices turn back from our anticipated resistances at psychological 10,000 levels. The expanded (X) wave correction up looks complete.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 02 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Tags: alpha, India, indices

Categories: India, Research Updates

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Today’s Alpha India report carries technical and cycle cases on one of the worst performer Indian Mid Economic stocks, PUNJ LLOYD. The stock is forming a potential double bottom reversal pattern, confirmed by the bottoming cycle case.

The market bias is negative for the day, as NIFTY is pushing lower to fill the open gap. Key supports to watch lie at 5,200 levels.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 01 November 2011 | Comments (0)

Tags: alpha, India, ME

Categories: India, Research Updates

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NIFTY Weekly. Prices are retesting the intermediate trend channel resistances near 5,350-5,400 levels. The preferred view looks at a completing (X) wave up and a pending corrective (Z) wave down till previous lows at 4,700 levels or even lower. Alternate, on the other hand, sees this as a complete (W)-(X)-(Y) correction down and looks at further upmove above 5,400 resistances.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 31 October 2011 | Comments (0)

Tags: alpha, India, indices

Categories: India, Research Updates

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Today’s report carries technical and cycle cases on the best and the worst performer of the Indian Telecommunications sector. The best performer is TULIP, ranked above 90% extreme rankings, while IDEA is the worst at 35% rankings.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 31 October 2011 | Comments (0)

Tags: alpha, EE, India

Categories: India, Research Updates

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Today’s Alpha India report carries technical and cycle cases on the best and the worst Indian Metals stocks: BHUSAN STEEL and PSL. The chart below illustrates the current minor structure of BHUSAN STEEL which looks like a potential head and shoulders continuation pattern with neckline supports near 320 levels.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 27 October 2011 | Comments (0)

Tags: alpha, India, LE

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA