Divergence is a part of nature, it is also observed in markets. This special issue on Indian Banks illustrate the divergence between YES Bank and SBI from May 2009 to Nov 2010 of 300%. The tough part about divergence is that there are few tools that can quantify it.

When will divergence between sector peers end?
What is high and low divergence?
Does it have maximum or minimum or average value?
Can we rank divergence spread between sector peers?

Orpheus Jiseki provides objective tools to explain divergence. We queried the Banking universe to understand.

1) Which are the most diverged Banking pairs?
2) Whether divergence is important to be seen for a month, 6 months or a year?
3) Can we rank the divergence between all banking pairs?
4) Does it tell us which are the banking outperformers?
5) Does it tell us whether banking sector will bottom?

We have answered all these questions in the latest ALPHA. The report carries technical cases on all the banking stocks, ranking of pairs, the top running pair, Jiseki cycles on the banking stocks and a sector preview.

To read more about our JISEKI PAIR service subscribe mail us today.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 16 January 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

This is another working of the NEW JISEKI PAIR service. How did we do pairs previously? What has changed? Previously we used to do net rankings, selling the best and buying the worst. Now we are combining three Jiseki cycles together, like we do in individual stocks. The combination of the various Jiseki cycles tell us if the pair ratio line is headed higher or lower. If the ratio line between BPCL and HPCL (blue) is headed higher, it is long BPCL, short HPCL and vice versa. Interpretation can wary, a more risky trade can just involve the interaction of Jiseki 1>or<Jiseki2 or it can involve all the three of them. Example only go long BPCL short HPCL if all the three Jiseki are trended up, as at point C. From C point the pair has delivered 20% over the last 12 months. JISEKI PAIR service can also be used for stock selection, which sector peer to own and which to reduce or close.

To read more about our JISEKI PAIR service subscribe mail us today.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 13 January 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Indian Pairs and Assets, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

In this new format of Alpha Global Indices Dan Rusu covered the Elliott Wave Global Equity perspective on S&P, EuroStoxx50, Sensex, Nikkei, Thai SET and Chinese SSEC and Mukul has answered the following questions on Indian sectors. Why Nifty bearish case may not influence BSE Health Care Sector? Why Real Estate sector could determine where Indian equity is headed in 2012? Why lack of price confirmation is a spoiler for a secular bear? Why just looking at Nifty may be a bad idea? Investors may feel that they can live without real estate, but can you live without POWER? What is consumer durables and FMCG indicating?

To read the report download it from the Orpheus e-store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 12 January 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: Global, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Which is the worst power sector stock which fulfills the following criteria?

1) Is less than 30% Jiseki Ranking

2) Has a corrective overlapping structure since 2009.

3) Has barely retraced 50% from the 2009 highs.

4) Has monthly ROC positive

5) Is an Orpheus buy from the Indian Power Sector?

To know the answer, download the latest ALPHA report.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 10 January 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Recently economist carried the comparisons of currencies around the world. The table suggested in INR terms the BIG MAC INDEX was the cheapest. At Orpheus when we hear the world CHEAPEST bells ring very hard. When something gets cheapest it automatically senses of value. We don’t think INR to be in an impulse higher and don’t think the shooting star at 54 is easy to break in Jan. We see some strengthening to 52 and lower before anything. How this is going to influence equity remains to be seen. This latest FOREX JISEKI we have ranked the currencies over the last quarter and carried the various FOREX JISEKI around the world. For INR we have looked at the XEN (INR currency Index) Jiseki. The Jiseki has not bottomed yet, but in ranking terms INR is indeed one of the worst performers. We have carried a technical case on INR along with YEN, GBP etc.

The read the latest Alpha download the report from the Orpheus e store.

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Senior Technical Analyst at Aditya Birla Money covering Indian Equity Markets. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 10 January 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: Global, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

This is a special report on Indian metal commodities and stocks. We have ranked the BSEMETALS along with the various metal majors.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

To read this report download it from our e store.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals.  Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 09 January 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

The TECH has always played a significant weightage in market reversals. This was the case in 2009. However, this time things look a bit different. Lets look at the positives and the negatives and measure what TECH is doing. Going to historical high? Till when? Which are the stronger components? Which are the weaker components?

To read this special report on Indian TECH sector download it from our e store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 06 January 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

It has been a challenge for fund managers and money managers to outperform the market. The market being the popular benchmark. Statistics suggest that 90% of the fund managers can’t beat the benchmark and the few who can, find it tough to do it consistently. This is why behavioral finance suggests that investor should search for Alpha generators and not just pay for active management.

We at Orpheus believe there is a way to allocate the components of the DOW or S&P500 and outperform both of them consistently. If a strategy can accomplish this, it would mean higher return per unit of risk. This idea is what we call Jiseki Portfolio Indices. What we do? We invest or increase allocations in the worst and reduce or close out our allocations from the best. How do we do it? We follow the Jiseki CYCLES. When it turns up from the worst we BUY and vice versa.

Today we are illustrating the JISEKI LOSER’S INDEX performance from DEC 2009 to DEC 2011. The Index delivered absolute positive returns of 27 percent during the period. This was 13.5% annualized. The Index selects ideas from global 1000 assets (including 600 from S&P500 and TSX 100). The DOW delivered 15% for the respective period. This means worst performers of the S&P500 Index delivered more than the Index itself.

This report carries the current running LONG SIGNALS on Indices, a few Commodities and Bonds. In our next report we cover the Early Economic stocks from USA and Canada. We have also carried a primer on Jiseki signal interpretation.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Dr. Ionut Nistor is the co-author of Performance Cycles paper published in Kyoto Economics Journal in March 2009. Ionut is a professor of Corporate Finance. Currently he is pursuing his post doctorate studies at Kobe University in Japan. He is fluent in Japanese, Romanian and English.

The Bric Model from a Japanese Perspective
Ionut Nistor – Econohistory

Author: Orpheus | Date: 04 January 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: Global, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

It has been the bane of fund managers and money managers to outperform the market. The market being the popular benchmark. Statistics suggest that 90% of the fund managers can’t beat the benchmark and the few who can, can’t do it consistently. This is why behavioral finance suggests that paying for active management for returns lower than the benchmark (Sensex) is fruitless.

We at Orpheus believe there is a way to allocate the components of the SENSEX and outperform the SENSEX consistently. If we can illustrate this, you our valued reader will have higher return for lower risk. This idea is what we call Jiseki Portfolio Indices. What we do? We invest or increase allocations in the worst and reduce or close out our allocations from the best. How do we do it? We follow the Jiseki CYCLES. When it turns up from the worst we BUY and vice versa.

Today we are illustrating the JISEKI WORST INDEX performance from DEC 2009 to DEC 2011. ‘THE JISEKI WORST’ delivered absolute positive returns of 28 percent during the period. This was 14% annualized. Now one may say, but this is very less for India. Well, first this is not an India dedicated Index. This is an Index which selects ideas from global 1000 assets including CNX100 India components. And secondly the Index delivered in the time Sensex turned 3% negative.

The latest report suggest BUY signals, technical and Jiseki cases and the Nifty update in the latest JISEKI INDICES report.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.

Author: Orpheus | Date: 04 January 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: India, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

The Jiseki BEST Index is about selling the top ranking assets. We have illustrated the equity curve of the Jiseki top ranked assets among 1000 global assets. Equity curve is a graphical representation of the change in value of a trading account over a time period. A curve with a consistently positive slope would generally indicate that the trading strategies of the account are profitable, while a negative slope would indicate that the account is in the red. The global portfolio contains TSX100 components, S&P 500 components, BRICS, Commodities, global indices etc. How does the Jiseki BEST Index work?

1) Every week we look at the BEST Jiseki rankings.
2) Apply FILTERS to existing list of components.
3) Look for the Jiseki cycles turning negative.
4) Allocate equally among selected components creating a portfolio.
5) Review every week.
6) If there is an exit signal, close the stock and reallocate the cash in a new stock signal.

From the Dec 2009 to Dec 2011 highs, ‘THE JISEKI BEST’ delivered absolute returns of 68.2 percent. This is 34% annualized returns (assuming non leveraged short). As of 11 Dec, this portfolio had 69 components. How we plan to improve this Index?

1) Reduce the components to tradable 30 asset Index.2) Introduce region specific Indices, just for India, Canada, US, BRICS etc.3) Create asset specific Jiseki Indices for commodity, bonds, currencies etc.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated through as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Dr. Ionut Nistor is the co-author of Performance Cycles paper published in Kyoto Economics Journal. Ionut has been part of the core team that developed and nurtured the idea of Alpha products since July 2008. Ionut is also a professor of Corporate Finance. Currently he is pursuing his post doctorate studies at Kobe University in Japan. He is fluent in Japanese, Romanian and English.

The Bric Model from a Japanese Perspective
Ionut Nistor – Econohistory

Author: Orpheus | Date: 03 January 2012 | Comments (0)

Categories: Global, Research Updates

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA