The society promotes food absolutism as it is profitable business, and what’s profitable may not always be value driven.

Interest rate cycles suggest that everyone living today will come to see today as a time of great opportunities and not a crisis. The Time the interest rates hit zero (near zero), the start of a century long inflation. I have mentioned this prior that hyperinflation does not really mean Zimbabwean inflation, but it definitely means double digit interest rates as high as 20% in a few cases. We have lived through this historical time prior and we will live it again, mainly our children.

But what really concerns me with such a probable outlook is that how will the society feed itself? Food is at the heart of inflation. And if you thought food was expensive today, you really need to brace up for what can happen to you daily bread and butter tomorrow.

Everything is connected in time. So whether it will be the food prices blamed for inflation or otherwise, the net result is that food…

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya

Author: Orpheus | Date: 02 December 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: 2012 and Beyond, Food, Forecasts, Time Triads

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya

Author: Mukul PAL | Date: 27 September 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: 2012 and Beyond

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Sunspots

A J Tchijevsky’s excitement cycles, reopens the debate of Time.

The success in the new age is a lot different from what we experienced 11 years back. The shy public which needed market research surveys to bring out feedback is keener to offer comments. There were 30 odd comments on the Oil forecast, 398 comments on a dirty sport tackle on the yahoo sports blog and 425 comments on the 13 year old Everest climber. Are we in excited times? Or do you think we as a society are a bit less excited than what we were a few years back? Do these times polarize us as a society? Do we become indifferent? Is there some way we can quantify excitement? Can this quantification help us forecast? Can it tell us before our odds of success or failure? Can it tell us how to plan our investments and life? Can it tell us what movies to make? What products and business to launch? Does this excitement ever fall? Simply we are asking ourselves is excitement cyclical? And if it is cyclical, is cyclicality a science? But before we come to the science part, how time cycles are measurable and how it can revolutionize our understanding of the world around us, let’s have a closer look at excitement.

In December 1926, at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society Professor A J Tchijevsky’s (researcher at Astronomical Observatory, Institute of Biological Physics, Archeological Institute, Moscow) paper was presented, which elaborated the index of Mass human excitability, 500 B.C. – A.D.1922. This index showed a consistent pattern of 9 waves of excitability per century over the entire span of 2422 years. The index was compiled from detailed statistical researches in the histories of 72 countries and nations of the world.

Tchijevsky found not only that this index was characterized by the 11.1 year cycles, but that the crests of these cycles tended to correlate with crests of sunspot cycles. “In the paper published in the Cycles magazine of Foundation of Cycles 1968 issue professor quotes” As soon as the sunspot activities approaches its maximum, the number of important mass historical events, taken as a whole, increases, approaching its maximum during the sunspot maximum and decreases to its minimum during the periods of the sunspot minimum. Each cycle is divided into four periods. Minimum of excitability (3 years), Growth of excitability (2 years), maximum of excitability (3 years), decline of excitability (3 years).

Over nearly a hundred years since the research was published, a few things have changed. In the extreme point of the cycle’s course, the tension of the all human activity falls to the minimum, giving way to creativity and a general decrease of military or political enthusiasm, by peace and peaceful creative work and a disintegration of masses. The last sunspot cycle started in 1998, peaked in 2000 and bottomed in 2009. The society emerges out of excitability lows.

Now this is where the observations begin. The human excitability is at a 11 year low and we are in a few years of growth and prosperity. This might sound surprising and contrary to popular belief that we are in for a double dip recession. Excitability cycles tell us that from the lows in 2010, a multiyear equity bull should emerge. But there are strange coincidences here? Excitability cycles are not only in sync with sunspot cycles but also with a decade long Clement Juglar cycles.

The scientists say, don’t show me cycles and patterns coincidences everywhere. Show me the proof. Even professor Tchijevsky’s work did not get so much popularity as few could explain why excitability index was leading the sunspot cycles by an average 12 months. At some stage of thinking cyclists wondered that there was a force that affects both human beings and sunspots simultaneously. Proving why periodicity happened takes time cycle analysis to a scientific level.

Scientific rationalism against Time can be sticky ground. Specially because there is a lot more than empirical proof out there which suggest that time is mathematical and ordered, the reason for the coincidences, sunspots, growth etc. The first proof is History itself. Though the society uses the cliché that ‘history repeats’, it never asks is repetitive history not periodicity, recurrence in time, time cyclicality? Other clichés like ‘space and time are unruled by any law’ interferes with the truth. The whole idea is that if Einstein could not understand time, who can? History was always considered knowledge not science. Karl Lamprecht, German Historian showcased the order, history’s practical purpose was always considered doubtful. How naive of us.

Time is exponential and it is the one which gives nature and society its cycles. Periodicity and recurrence happens in society and stock markets because of this order. Time is why everything natural is cyclical, even human excitement. We can connect Sun with excitement or anything else, our behavior as a society is predictable. It was too much of a truth then when Professor Tchijevsky was jailed. How much of it is a truth now? We will see.

This article was written for Alrroya

Orpheus e-store

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

Author: Mukul PAL | Date: 24 May 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: 2012 and Beyond, Patterns and Proportions

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Exponentiality is associated with herding not with value. Exponentiality can be defined as rising inclination in prices, larger gains in smaller time which visually looks like a rocket headed into sky or a bottom less pit. A look at Gold prices suggests this positive exponentiality.

Exponential Function

Look at platinum in (1999-2008), look at zinc (2003-2006), look at Dow (1974 – 2007).  Just to make the case clearer we have juxtaposed Dow (1974-2007) with gold (1999-2010), they look similar. Now this is not the classic intermarket chart we see every day, as gold is considered an asset of bad times, while Dow is for good times. Gold is also known as the crisis commodity that prospers in tough times. So the important questions one can ask is are we in an ongoing crisis as rising gold prices suggest? Or are we looking at an ending crisis as exponentiality and topping of gold suggests?

If we look at the element of time gold has been rising for a record 10 years without a retracement more than 38.2%. The metal has not witnessed a fall bigger than 9 months in time. While the Dow price exponential structure (1974-2007) topped in Oct 2007 and crashed 50%. Building on the case, we have more of a topping case for gold here and an easing crisis rather than what seems to be out there.

Out there we have sovereign risk, euro under attack, more than 12 month old recovery and if we look at the sentiment indicator, all time historical highs on gold will generate bullish sentiment extremes . This means more of an exhausting, up but topping case than otherwise.  To understand gold further we also plotted the precious metals against Euro and Japanese Yen. The aim was to take out the dollar bias. Gold denominated in Euro and Yen both were at weekly momentum extremes. Gold in Yen was still below 1980’s high and Gold denominated in Euro was gapping in the Reuters 3000Xtra charts. Considering EURUSD has also gapped recently on daily data, we are not surprised that price gaps on gold euro are conspicuous.

A closer look at industrial metals also suggest down structures. How can industrial metals correct while gold and silver push higher? Is this not a non confirmation? Even now things don’t add up if you are expecting a primary (more than 9 months)degree crisis. Things add up, if we assume intermediate negativity on equity markets not heading into Q4 followed by a global recovery.  We will have to wait and see how the respective picture unfolds.

This article was written for Alrroya

To read the complete report.  Download the latest Waves.Gold

Orpheus e-store

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

Author: Mukul PAL | Date: 13 May 2010 | Comments (2)

Categories: 2012 and Beyond, Forecasts

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

Do you see the non confirmation between time oscillator and price? The non confirmation between the oscillator and price clearly suggests negativity going ahead for DOW. This is a case for an impending reversal. The oscillator structure also looks weak and ready to resolve lower.

This is what we said on 2 Jan 2010 for DOW Jones Industrial Average.

“Any January positivity should be an illusion. The first quarter of 2010 should be negative for DOW.”

Prices are up 0.96% from Jan high (10,729) to March lows (10,832). On one side we were wrong as prices did not reverse, but less than 1% upside is enough choppy action to prove that the best of TIME strength is over for DOW in the ongoing CYCLE.

March 2009 we started illustrating time oscillators with nesting momentum triads. We have been refining it since then. The current form of time oscillator combines three time frames. The oscillator moves like a cycle and should atleast push lower back till zero levels before anything. Time oscillator takes into account three time periods viz. minor (14 days), Intermediate (70 days) and primary (210 days). Here we have illustrated the time oscillator for NIFTY (India 50). The oscillator has clearly topped and should break down below key neckline supports soon. This keeps us looking at a topping price absolute price performance.

Published 2 Jan, 2010

Time Oscillator is a range bound indicator suggesting increase and decrease in time periods. Starting 30 Nov 1988, DOW witnessed a confirming increase in time periods till 30 Sep 1998. From 1998 time oscillator fell till 31 July 2001 along with the prices. Since 30 Apr 2008 the oscillator is falling till date. It is too early to assume that the rise in DOW is a new bull market and 2010 will be a positive year. Till the oscillator sees a further fall till 60-100 levels, the current rise on DOW remains a bear market rally that should correct into 2010.

Primary (multi month) perspective

Intermediate (multi week) perspective

Considering the primary (multi month) time is still pointing lower (above), the intermediate time oscillator at 250 days suggests an intermediate top might be near or already in. Only once since 2002 has the time oscillator breached 300 days.

Minor (multi day) perspective

On the minor time oscillator, the 2009 cycle seems over and prices should get ready to trend. Seeing the minor trend in light of intermediate and primary perspective, any January positivity should be an illusion. The first quarter of 2010 should be negative for DOW.

CYCLES covers global currency pair, global equity, emerging equity, and inter asset cycles. The product studies time cycle, asset outperformance and underperformance signals. The aim is to look at markets as a group and in isolation. This is a monthly perspective product that readers should use in conjunction with our other features like WAVES.GLOBAL , WAVES.INDIA, WAVES.FOREX, WAVES.METALS, WAVES.ENERGY, and other global features. Our economic and psychological world is well connected and cyclical. INTERMARKET CYCLES is a subject coined by us at Orpheus. The subject studies the asset linkages and the fixed periodicity between them. We look at the subject from three aspects. First from the sectoral aspect. As we redefine Equity sector rotation and reclassify global sectors into three broader sectors viz. Early Economic, Mid Economic and Late economic. We juxtapose these three broad sectors on the economic and business cycles. Second we look at subject from the 25-30 year Asset cycles. For example the 30 year Gold cycle and commodity cycle, which is inverse of the 30 year equity cycle or social prosperity cycle. Third we look at inter asset cycles between Gold and Oil, VIX and S&P, Technology and Blue Chips, Local Currency and numerous other asset pairs to look for asset outperformance and underperformance signals.

REUTERS RICS (METALS) – XAU=, XAG= (FOREX) EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR= (GLOBAL) .BVSP, .IRTS, .FCHI, .GDAXI, .GSPC, .DJI, .N225, .SSEC, C.N, JPM.N, BAC.N, AXP.N, AIG.N, DIS.N, HD.N, GM.N, VZ.N, T.N, INTC.OQ, MSFT.OQ, HPQ.N, IBM.N, UTX.N, CAT.N, GE.N, MMM.N, BA.N, KO.N, MCD.N, – WMT.N, DD.N, PFE.N, MRK.N, CVX.N, XOM.N, PG.N, JNJ.N, AA.N (ENERGY) BRT-, WTM- , .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N , IPNG , NG-P-CAL. (AGRO) COFSAN-4-NYC, SUG-DLY-ISA, .DJAIGCT, CCCI-NYC, CORN.L, C-US2Y-GULF,.SPGSCN, W-RJK-MLQ, .DJAIGWHTR (GREEN) – NEX, G3E.CO, EEN.PA, TEO.PA,.WOWAXPD,.GWE, HSNT.L,GAM, .SPGTCLEN, VWS.CO, FSLR.O, VIE.PA, ITT, .BIOX,ADM, BG, CSAN3.SA, .SUNIDX, QCEG.DE, 3402.T, 3401.T, CLIE.L

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

Author: Mukul PAL | Date: 05 April 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: 2012 and Beyond, Time Oscillator

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA

03 Nov 07 – Water, a key renewable resource, has just started a multi-year boom which should leave even oil behind

Throwing out the baby with the bath water is an idiom that has its origins on the monthly bathing ritual in Europe before the 16th century. The bath tubs were few and seniors of the house were the first to take bath, the children of the house came last. The very reason: the baby was thrown with the muddy and dirty bath water on occasions. It’s tough to validate this socionomic anecdote. But the question is that were some of our ancestors really low on hygiene or was it about water scarcity and economising of a resource? Well, the fact is that water has moved from abundance to scarcity through history and our ancestors did face a water scarcity in the past which might have forced them to change their habits. This also involved economising on bathing water and hence throwing the baby out.

Read more…

Scarcity creates water activists in Mumbai

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA

Share

WORLD WATER DAY 22 MAR 2010

Author: Mukul PAL | Date: 19 March 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: 2012 and Beyond

We recommend: The Orpheus Virtual Store | The Orpheus Research at Reuters: UK, USA