Archive for the ‘Time Triads’ category

The New Gold – I

The global monetary system needs a financial and technological innovation.

Peter Bernstein looked at gold from a historical aspect in his book ‘The Power of Gold, the history of an obsession’. From the start of Egyptian era in 3100 BC when Pharaoh’s ruled to the Roman Empire, the author illustrated how gold slowly and steadily became the real money.

The current stage of gold also gives it an aura, but this time it’s the public that has been enamored by it not the central bankers. I don’t know how Robert M. Solow will connect gold with economic growth, but just like Benjamin Disraeli, he would say the same thing, “Gold is not a cause of growth but a consequence of it”

Solow proved that only technological progress leads to real growth. A closer look at Bernstein’s history from a Solowian perspective based on technological innovations and other financial innovations reveals interesting aspects about gold.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya.

Author: | Date: 08 November 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: Gold

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Alpha Global – The Pair Grid

A technician always has a challenge of coverage. We are trained for speed to spot opportunities. One can look at BSE 30 components, but looking through BSE500 or say RUSSELL 3000 chart by chart is a tough task. The information is growing exponentially like everything else and systems are needed to know where to look.

Orpheus Performance cycles are a novel way to manage a large universe of coverage that works on the idea of mathematical time and cyclical performance. The worst performers should outperform and best performers should underperform.

Today we have matched the best with the worst in the pair grid. The horizontal menu is the top performers and the vertical components are the worst assets. Alpha Global covers 120 assets. This includes commodities, currencies, DOW 30 components, Global Equity Indices and sector representations.

This feature is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts

Enjoy the latest Alpha Global.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Time Analytics research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities


Author: | Date: 31 October 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: Agro, Bonds, Energy, Forex, Global, Global Indices, MENA

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Life and coastlines

Some problems span multi generations, Benoit Mandelbrot solved one such problem and earned himself a well deserving place in history, as the father of fractals.  Many of these mathematical structures and their descriptions go back to classical mathematics and mathematicians of the past like Cantor, Peano, Hilbert, Koch, Sierpinski, Julia, Hausdorff, but it was Mandelbrot who extended the early topology. Fractals solve the problem of how to organize complicated structure in an efficient way. Of course this was not what Peano and Hilbert were interested in almost 100 years ago. It was only after Mandelbrot’s work that the omnipresence of fractals became apparent.

Mandelbrot was a visionary in his ability to connect mathematics and patterns. He too like many other great thinkers worked on ideas of aggregation, simplification, order, efficiency rules, cyclicality in errors, interconnectedness of nature through geometrical structures. Mandelbrot illustrated that very simple formulas can generate objects that exhibit an extraordinary wealth of structure. His work encompasses mathematics, physics, economics and diverse other fields of physical and social sciences, music and art. He died on 14 Oct at the age of 85 after suffering from pancreatic cancer.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


Author: | Date: 17 October 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: Fractals

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Sugar, Carbon Rieki Structures

REUTERS RICS:  SUGA.L, CARB.L

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 50. 1 is top relative performance and 50 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Vivek is a qualified Chartered Accountant (Institute of Chartered Accountants of India). Vivek is passionate about Technical Analysis, a self taught Elliott Wave Technician. He conducts technical analyis on a variety of financial instruments on his blog vivekoutlook.blogspot.com. He will be covering commodities for Orpheus Research.
Vivek has worked with BDO Consulting in Oman, as Business Consultant working on feasibility studies for expansion projects for companies. He has worked with Irevna – Division of CRISIL conducting fundamental analysis – sell side analysis – of Information technology companies.

Author: | Date: 17 October 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: Agro, Energy, Global

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Crude completing B or new leg up? Rieki suggests bottoming

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published monthly. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM- , .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N , IPNG , NG-P-CALPerformance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 50. 1 is top relative performance and 50 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Vivek is a qualified Chartered Accountant (Institute of Chartered Accountants of India). Vivek is passionate about Technical Analysis, a self taught Elliott Wave Technician. He conducts technical analyis on a variety of financial instruments on his blog vivekoutlook.blogspot.com. He will be covering commodities for Orpheus Research. Vivek has worked with BDO Consulting in Oman, as Business Consultant working on feasibility studies for expansion projects for companies. He has worked with Irevna – Division of CRISIL conducting fundamental analysis – sell side analysis – of Information technology companies.

Author: | Date: 07 October 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: Energy, Global

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The Auto Story
The auto sector exponential growth suggests that it’s time to rethink for auto manufacturers and investors alike.
The modern city I knew as a child keeps changing. There used to be more roads and less cars, now there are only cars. If you want to see roads and have driving pleasure you have to skip two thirds of the day. Ok this may be more valid coming from an emerging market like India or China, but the emerging market outlook for auto has been assumed to be significant globally.
The conventional thought may see auto growth as economic growth, signs of prosperity. The auto sector would do well then it is a sign of continued growth. How good is this indicator? Have we not come a long way from assuming that auto is the leading indicator that powers the economic cycle up?
Indicator failure is a reality and ‘the car story’ also stands challenged, at least in the form that we know today.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


Author: | Date: 27 September 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: 2012 and Beyond

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SSRN top 10. "The BRIC model from a Japanese Perspective"

Your paper, SSRN Top Downloads (BRIC), was recently listed on SSRN’s Top Ten download list for POL: Other Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy (Topic), POL: Other Strategy & Microeconomic Policy (Topic), Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal and Strategy & Microeconomic Policy eJournal. As of 09/14/2010, your paper has been downloaded 11 times. You may view the abstract and download statistics at http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1654002.

Top Ten Lists are updated on a daily basis. Click on the following link to view the Top Ten list for the journal POL: Other Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy (Topic) Top Ten, POL: Other Strategy & Microeconomic Policy (Topic) Top Ten, Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal Top Ten and Strategy & Microeconomic Policy eJournal Top Ten.

Click on the following link to view all the papers in the journal POL: Other Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy (Topic) All Papers, POL: Other Strategy & Microeconomic Policy (Topic) All Papers, Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal All Papers and Strategy & Microeconomic Policy eJournal All Papers.

To view any of the Top Ten lists, click the TOP button on any network, subnetwork, journal or topic in the Browse list reachable through the following link: http://www.ssrn.com/Browse

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Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

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Author: | Date: 15 September 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: Research Papers

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Does Nifty Sleep?


If performance is cyclical like everything else in nature than asset prices are always relatively outperforming and underperforming. An underperforming asset is sleeping and stagnating. It lacks trading interest, tests patience and will deliver less than expectations. Now one may say, it is impossible to find when the Nifty sleeps and wakes up? Before we prove that one can pinpoint time let’s look at the shifting seasonality from sleeping and waking performance. Once we establish this seasonality, a momentum trader or investor would know that Nifty is going to sleep. Then you can do better with investments by simply ignoring Nifty.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts


Author: | Date: 11 September 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: ATMA, Performance Cyclicality

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Indian Banks – Exponentiality of Returns

These are the tabulated banking stocks performance (returns) for the last 3 months. A visible exponentiality. The banking stock covers State owned banks (SOB), Old Private sector banks and private banks.


Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


Author: | Date: 09 September 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: Exponentiality

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The Information Pattern

Information like everything else in nature is mathematically patterned. Understanding the pattern can help us make more sense of information.

Coming to look at it, we don’t trade or invest in assets but their intrinsic information. It is this information that gives them value. The relationship is considered linear between information and value, the higher the quality of the information, higher the perceived value in the assets and vice versa. For example, the value of Oil lies in the information code bits in it. Oil is going to get over, demand will overshoot supply, future is inflationary are some of the information bits that drive the price of Oil. A similar information code also works for Gold and other assets. It’s like DNA with a different code, but similar double helix structure.

However, that’s not how the society knows information. The masses know information as something that they read in the newspaper, something that they see on TV, or read on the web. It’s all about making sense of this clutter. The very fact that humans think there is a certain disorder in the information that they assume the confusion that comes with news. If the information works for us, great, If it does not, we accept it. We have learned to have fewer expectations from information.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


Author: | Date: 05 September 2010 | Comments (0)

Categories: Patterns and Proportions

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