Archive for July, 2009

THE MYSTIC TIME

Time like many other aspects could be labeled as mystic, but the reality is different.

Thanks to a friend, after a break of 15 years, I restarted Yoga a few months back. I also picked up the Bhagwad Gita ‘As it is’ and made it a part of the extended Saturday sessions. This could be considered a mystic exercise as spiritualism, supernaturalism and magic get bundled together as one.

Mysticism deals with mystery and the unexplained. Sometimes called as ‘mystery religion’, mysticism deals with the pursuit of an ultimate reality or a spiritual truth. Time in general and the power to overcome time (forecasting) in particular have always been a major subject of mysticism. All cultures had their oracles, druids, shamans, wizards, prophets, fortune tellers and other characters that were believed to be skilled enough to see the future and make contact with the spiritual world (or stock prices now).

This the economists might call as the unorganized sector of forecasting services. We may hate to talk about or study it as an area of higher study, conveniently discounting it but our day to day life is built around an attempt to live and understand the unknown.

The only mystics we are willing to accept are The Gods. They are the ones who possess the power to heal and forecast. However, when humans attempt it, it’s funny, entertaining and occult. The subject has a lot to do with what we humans can comprehend and what we can’t. If we can, it’s scientific and statistically significant, if we can’t its mystic. We can consult astrologers or read astro blogs when it comes for personal solutions, but when it comes to markets, Astrofunds are magical. We live in a world of convenience where accepting or ignoring something is easy. Here the unpopular is the infamous.

Leonardo Fibonacci (1170-1250) taught Europe how to count but what is left of his great work is a mystic sequence and a magical golden proportion. We had emerging market brokers asking if Fibonacci actually made money. Lack of historical interpretation, overestimation of personal skill complicated by a need for statistically significant proof has junked this great idea. A few scientists have found mathematics and logic in mysticism. The divine proportion rules nature. Mathematically known as phi, this number is present in all the aspects of the universe around us. We can see the proportion in the petals of a flower, in the human body, in pieces of art and architecture like the ancient pyramids, in stock market prices.

Because we consider Fibonacci as mystical we don’t see its utility beyond magic. Thanks to chartists and Elliotticians, Fibonacci is widely followed today. We have a section of experts talking about power law for a century and a half, but even they could not give Fibonacci its much deserved attention. We just did not want to do with anything magical. It was not scientific. Did we really try to see the science in Fibonacci series? No. A simple curve drawn on the Fibonacci sequence proves that the sequence is a power law curve. How did such a simple idea miss us for so long? Simplicity is tough and trashing is easy. A few fundamentalists recently refuted Fibonacci and sighted it as a mere coincidence appearing in markets. When you see the power law function in Fibonacci 61.8% retracement ceases to be magic and becomes a part of the other fractalled proportion we see in markets at all time degrees.

Idea of mysticism is also linked with Yoga and meditation. The meditative practice has seen a rise in the number of practitioners and celebrity acceptance. Recently Bill Gross, Fund manager mentioned about his decade long Yoga practice. However sighting meditation as a good tool for traders might create a chuckle. Neuroscientists have studied brain activity of Tibetan monks. With mediation Monks can shift brain activity to parts associated with peace and happiness. We will spend millions of dollars and decades of man hours creating subjects and research papers proving how fallible human mind is but we will not teach meditation and spiritual thought to traders to help them contain greed because that’s mysticism.

Considered a pseudoscience or superstition, astrology has played an important role in the development of cultures and history of mankind. Astrologers use sidereal time (‘star time’) to count and predict future events, such as catastrophes, diseases or opportune moments in the future for certain actions. Astrology has a lot to do with time and forecasting. There is even a concept called ‘Time Astrology’ which deals with the idea that there is good and bad timing, trying to predict the perfect moments for human actions. Time astrologers analyze the quality of the moment, its inner characteristics and influence on human lives. The cyclicality of time is also present in its various aspects, represented by the Zodiac and the predictability of time itself. The zodiac cycle is believed to influence human lives and one’s character.

Astrology is another science that has been trashed as mystic knowledge. It remains for niche clubs. We humans did not make an effort to understand astrology. There are many reasons. The subject assumes time cycles and planetary placement and its effect on a certain person or society as a whole. Many astro cyclists are computer engineers ex fundamentalists turned astro forecasters. India the land of astrology has generations taking up fancy to the subject. The astrology mystics can surprise you many times when they talk about Uranus, Jupiter and Saturn cycles affecting you. Finding a good astro adviser is as hard as stock picking but the idea of astrology being occult is sheer nonsense. Nostradamus contributed more than just some entertaining quatrains.

It was not very long ago charting was also mystical. A J Frost challenged the idea of charting being similar to falconry. Market Technicians Association was established in 1973 got the needed certification for its Technicians in 2006. Elliott waves are still considered mystical. It was a similar case with the Foundation of Cycles, started in 1940’s the institution failed to have the global reach it deserves just because time cycles are also considered mystical. I remember a quant laughing about a fellow time cyclist without even knowing that his area of work on power law was also the explanation for cycles in time.

Time is also on the short list. It is a mystery that the human mind is unable to solve. Time is the invisible presence which apparently governs everything, from the pulse of life in our heartbeats to the changing of seasons and generations. It is mysterious and controversial, unexplained and yet so natural. People have always wondered about the true nature of time and tried to solve its puzzle. Is it just another dimension or is it a higher dimension which stands above everything? Is it an illusion or is it real? Is it linear or is it cyclical? Did time exist before us or did we invent time? As Carlo Rovelli says, “It is not reality that has a time flow, but our very approximate knowledge of reality. Time is the effect of our ignorance.” The mystery of the mystic.

Time starts to unfold when we look at cyclicality, proportion and self-similar fractals (Time Triads). People pray at a religious place. A few of them praying for health, a few of them old praying for age, a few failed hedge fund managers, confessing (go to Jesus meetings). They all are not jut there because they felt a need to be more spiritual. They are also there because TIME seems to have turned against them. For some it was the decay of age, for a few it was the fluctuation written extensively by Mandelbrot and Shiller. For a few it was the excitement cycles which take us from believing that we are Gods to bringing us back to reality that we are not. For some it is the simple turn down in credit cycles, which makes us go spiritual.

Statistical significance has always been linked to a time series, but rarely on a fractalled time series. This means that statistics has mostly assumed like the rest of the sciences that time is a linear variable. Golden proportion is owing to the time fractals. The world we live in and our life are mathematical because time is the force that holds the world together. Bhagwad Gita was written sometime in the 5th century BC. The sacred book talks about the universe as a fraction. “A part of it we know, and the rest unknown.”

Mukul Pal and Anna Maria Michesan

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CHANNELS.BVB - LATE ECONOMIC UPDATE


SUMMARY: ROMPETROL RAFINARE DAILY (RRC) Prices touched but did not break the multi month channel support line. This keeps us looking up. DAFORA DAILY (DAFR) Prices have reached the previous KR level. A break above previous highs would be positive. Moving average crossover also keeps us looking up in a minor trend. BIOFARM WEEKLY (BIO) Moving average crossover remains positive. ZENTIVA WEEKLY (SCD) Prices are above the key level at 0.63. Above this level we get further positivity. PETROM DAILY (SNP) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED Prices turn lower from the open gap. A break up above the gap level would be positive. OIL TERMINAL WEEKLY (OIL) Prices remain outside the downtrended channel and below the key level at 0.2. For sustained positivity we need a break above 0.2. OLTCHIM WEEKLY (OLT) Prices retraced 50% and pushed higher, though minor trend is up we need a clear break above 0.4 to look for a sustained uptrend. TRANSGAZ DAILY (TGN) Daily moving average crossover is positive. If prices move above the Engulfing Bearish (EB-) formation the trend would move from DOWN, BUT BOTTOMING to UP. TRANSELECTRICA WEEKLY (TEL) The sideways corrective action continues. We have no negative confirmation till prices clear break the resistance line at 11.5. VRANCART WEEKLY (VNCA) Prices broke up the key level at 0.75. ALUMIL WEEKLY (ALU) Prices moved sideways and reached the mid channel line. AZOMURES DAILY (AZO) Daily moving average crossover is positive. Prices formed a Key Reversal (KR) bar and moved down. A push up above the current KR would suggest positivity. PETROLEXPORTIMPORT WEEKLY (PEI) Prices remain below key level at 20. A break would be a positive sign.


CHANNELS.INDIA - DAILY CYCLES SPECIAL

DAILY CYCLES SPECIAL
SUMMARY: OIL AND NATURAL GAS DAILY (ONGC) Time cycles suggest that any upmove now should be limited. RELIANCE DAILY (RELI) ROC cycles suggest a marginal upmove before turning down. AMBUJA DAILY (ABUJ) Time oscillators suggest a topping soon. A breaking of the true trendline supports would be our first reversal sign. HINDALCO DAILY (HALC) Time cycles indicate a topping soon. Any upmove now should be limited. ACC DAILY (ACC) ROC cycles continue to suggest a topping soon. Open gap targets lie at 640. NTPC DAILY (NTPC) This looks like a potential Head & Shoulders pattern. Time cycles also suggest a topping soon. RANBAXY DAILY (RANB) Time cycles suggest a topping soon. A clear break below true trendline supports would be our first reversal sign. TISCO DAILY (TISC) Time cycles suggest that any upmove now should be shortlived. CIPLA DAILY (CIPL) ROC non-confirmation suggest further supply pressure. ITC DAILY (ITC) ROC non-confirms and suggests a topping near current levels.

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CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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YEN USD. A-B-C UP CONTINUES

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WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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ERSTE AND THE TIBETIAN MONK

Hard speculators find it tough to stick around in markets. The volatility of great wealth and bankruptcy cycle gets too much. “I just can’t take it any more. Things will get worse before they get better. So I am quitting”. Is it really that easy to quit, to leave. And even if you leave do you think markets will ever leave you. Till the time you are an economic being and not a meditating monk in TIBET, the markets will be connected to you. You want to do a green job, BPO, the social mood decides how long you will have that job and even if you have that job, there will be currency worries. How much are you worth in Euros or Dollars? The only way out of the market way is spiritualism. A new job is not going to take your miseries away. Oh! Yes there is the luck factor. If you are lucky, you will anyway survive But then luck has cycles too. So when the luck runs out, you still need prayers. ..READ MORE

ERSTE AND THE TIBETIAN MONK


Hard speculators find it hard to stick around in markets. The volatility of great wealth and bankruptcy cycle gets too much. “I just can’t take it any more. Things will get worse before they get better. So I m quitting”. Is it really that easy to quit, to leave. And even if you leave do you think markets will ever leave you. Till the time you are an economic being and not a meditating monk in TIBET, the markets will be connected to you. You want to do a green job, BPO, the social mood decides how long you will have that job and even if you have that job, there will be currency worries. How much are you worth in Euros or Dollars? The only way out of the market way is spiritualism. A new job is not going to take your miseries away. Oh! Yes there is the luck factor. If you are lucky, you will anyway survive

But then luck has cycles too. So when the luck runs out, you still need prayers. So the best thing is to understand the markets that you can’t shake off till you live. Forgive us, we are pushing you hard. But we want to get the message across, making a profit in a market or avoiding a loss is easier in markets than becoming a spiritual peaceful monk.

“In this dead markets” as a few claim we showcased how one can profit. The BETFI vs. BRD pair we showcased delivered 40% over 90 days. This is what we said on 19 MAY. “ BETFI starts underperforming BRD”. We have been talking about many pairs over the last few months. We have some more shocking news for you, if you are one of those who think Romanian markets have no future. As markets change stock selection and investment strategies change. The Orpheus pair strategy revolutionizes stock selection. If BRD was outperforming BETFI and ERST was outperforming BRD then the best stock to pick was ERST. The banking major outperformed by BRD by 127% from the start of the year. “Ok! so what everything moved up”. Yes everything did, but ERST moved up more than BRD. Understanding winners is a part of the game. If you understand them, you will never have to leave the market, as you know the road to becoming a TIBETIAN MONK is much harder.


We have carried the latest performance cycles. Enjoy the latest WAVES.ROM.


ERSTE AND THE TIBETIAN MONK

Hard speculators find it tough to stick around in markets. The volatility of great wealth and bankruptcy cycle gets too much. “I just can’t take it any more. Things will get worse before they get better. So I m quitting”. Is it really that easy to quit, to leave. And even if you leave do you think markets will ever leave you. Till the time you are an economic being and not a meditating monk in TIBET, the markets will be connected to you. You want to do a green job, BPO, the social mood decides how long you will have that job and even if you have that job, there will be currency worries. How much are you worth in Euros or Dollars? The only way out of the market way is spiritualism. A new job is not going to take your miseries away. Oh! Yes there is the luck factor. If you are lucky, you will anyway survive
But then luck has cycles too. So when the luck runs out, you still need prayers. So the best thing is to understand the markets that you can’t shake off till you live. Forgive us, we are pushing you hard. But we want to get the message across, making a profit in a market or avoiding a loss is easier in markets than becoming a spiritual peaceful monk.

“In this dead markets” as a few claim we showcased how one can profit. The BETFI vs. BRD pair we showcased delivered 40% over 90 days.  This is what we said on 19 MAY. “ BETFI starts underperforming BRD”. We have been talking about many pairs over the last few months. We have some more shocking news for you, if you are one of those who think Romanian markets have no future. As markets change stock selection and investment strategies change. The Orpheus pair strategy revolutionizes stock selection. If BRD was outperforming BETFI and ERST was outperforming BRD then the best stock to pick was ERST. The banking major outperformed by BRD by 127% from the start of the year. “Ok! so what everything moved up”. Yes everything did, but ERST moved up more than BRD. Understanding winners is a part of the game. If you understand them, you will never have to leave the market, as you know the road to becoming a TIBETIAN MONK is much harder.

We have carried the latest performance cycles. Enjoy the latest WAVES.ROM.

*This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ECONOHISTORY research products.

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WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

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WAVES.INDIA - PRICES CONTINUE TO HOLD KEY RESISTANCES

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ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH

WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

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END OF DAY CHARTING - FREE TOOLS

End of the day users should find this free tool by PROREAL valuable. There are marginal charges for intra day data. We have tested the system and found the templates easy to use. The bar chart quality is high. Candle stick quality is average. Trendlines are easy to draw. The channeling indicator could be a bit better. We liked the annotation system. For an end of day free software we can consider this revolutionary, if you have access to most gloabal assets (gold, oil, forex, equities). The company does not cover India yet. We will post more updates in this section.

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SENSEX. Anticipated and Happened

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This is a perspective product which helps making and implementing a strategy better. TICKS.INDIA covers NIFTY, NIFTY BANK, CNXIT and their futures on an Intra day basis. The report also covers Sensex. The reports are published through a self refreshing webpage. The service starts at 09:30 HRS (IST). The service can be accessed from the Orpheus Site.

TICKS.INDIA identifies the MINOR (less than 3 weeks), SUB MINOR (few days), and INTERMEDIATE (more than 6 weeks) trend and highlight respective KEY LEVELS for ENTRY and EXIT (The only two things needed for a strategy).

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CNXIT. Anticipated and Happened

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This is a perspective product which helps making and implementing a strategy better. TICKS.INDIA covers NIFTY, NIFTY BANK, CNXIT and their futures on an Intra day basis. The report also covers Sensex. The reports are published through a self refreshing webpage. The service starts at 09:30 HRS (IST). The service can be accessed from the Orpheus Site.

TICKS.INDIA identifies the MINOR (less than 3 weeks), SUB MINOR (few days), and INTERMEDIATE (more than 6 weeks) trend and highlight respective KEY LEVELS for ENTRY and EXIT (The only two things needed for a strategy).

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