NIFTY VIEW FROM TOP - 5 OR 7 N SENSEX CYCLES

The view from the top has a five wave look while the C leg is still overlapping and looks like a 7.  It’s tough to reconcile that C/3 down is over when the overall view looks like a 5-3-7. This is why we continue to maintain that the leg up could still be a corrective with lower resolution incomplete. The only problem in this view is that there is not much place for error now. If this view is correct prices should turn now.

TICKS.INDIA.150709 - 12:25 SENSEX QUARTERLY Primary cycles will only bottom somewhere in 2011-2012 window. A simple reason the JUGLAR cycles are generally 9-12 years. This means that 2009 is too early for the cycle that started in 2002 low to be considered complete.

12:30 SENSEX INTERMEDIATE CYCLES The reason OCT 08 - MAR 09 lows may not be tested or breached is because CYCLE LOWS now are of a smaller degree than the lows witnessed in OCT 08-MAR 09 lows. The best case of a deep retracement from here also should not take us below 11,196. A small observation as a bull caution is the KR (KEY REVERSAL) bar that is still holding at the recent top. As you can see its too soon to call the intermediate correction complete.


3 Responses to “NIFTY VIEW FROM TOP - 5 OR 7 N SENSEX CYCLES”

  1. Samant says:

    Hi , What would be the view from Cycles perspective ?. Will there be an October low for this year ?.
    From a time perspective, has the correction from 4700 lived it’s life ?. Thanks, Samant

  2. admin says:

    Thanks for the query. We have posted the updates above. Thanks

  3. Samant says:

    Hi,
    Thanks for your updates. I was looking for such a comment too… since my broker’s view is similar. Though they are not quoting Jugular cycle, but mentioning that:
    Rally since Oct low should LAST FOR NEXT 12-18 MONTHS WITH SHARP CORRECTIONS. Seemingly at least till June, 2010, or by Oct, 2010.
    If we compare with 1929 .. it compare’s well (Econo-History ?)
    Oct, 1929 -> Low, but bottom in June, 1932 .
    They further say that Depression will begin in 2010 and will peak in 2014 - 2015 —> 12 years from 2002 ?-> Jugular cycle ?
    The guy mentions Russel Napier .. whose book -> Anatomy of the Bear — is a study of market bottom’s. Any one has read that ?
    An article on him also mentions Q-Ratio -> The ratio of valuation of a company in the market Vs the cost of setting it up greenfield.
    Historically it has been near 0.3 at a bottom.
    What do you guys say ?.

    Regards,
    samant

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