Archive for September, 2009

ALPHA. GLOBAL - Supply pressure on Exxon continues

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only and short only strategy product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers DOW, S&P500, SENSEX (INDIA), GOLD, SILVER, EURO DOLLAR, YEN DOLLAR, 10 YEAR US TREASURY BONDS, 10 YEAR GERMAN BUND.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

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CHANNELS.BVB - MID ECONOMIC UPDATE

SUMMARY: CONDMAG DAILY (COMI) Prices are still at the rising mid channel line. We need a breach for continued positivity. TURBOMECANICA WEEKLY Multi month sideways movement solved in a rising trend. Minor trend becomes positive. COMPA WEEKLY (CMP) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED Prices came out of the multi annual down trended channel in a sideways movement. A break above 0.3 can signal a reversal. MEFIN WEEKLY (MEF) Prices fail to break previous resistance. ELECTROPUTERE DAILY (EPT) Long body candles don’t look very positive. Sub 0.25 we are back in negative territory. ARMATURA SAPTAMANAL (ARM) Prices remain in a consolidation stage. SOCEP WEEKLY (SOCP) Prices continue to push higher to previous resistance at 0.16. Minor trend remains positive. VAE APCAROM DAILY (APC) Minor trend remains down as prices fail at previous resistance. ELECTROCONTACT WEEKLY (ETC) Moving average crossover is positive.

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CHANNELS.BVB is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and focuses on stocks more than Indices. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.ROM and CHANNELS.ROM are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers just BVB stocks all mid cap and small cap.

CHANNELS.BVB on WEDNESDAY covers the Mid Economic Sector cycle including INDUSTRIALS sector stocks.

REUTERS RIC - (TUBU.BX, SOCC.BX, ARTM.BX, ARSB.BX, SNOS.BX, ALTC.BX, ARMA.BX, CMLF.BX, MEFI.BX, EPUT.BX, ETAC.BX, UAMT.BX, COMPA.BX, APOM.BX, MECF.BX, COMI.BX)
CHANNELS.BVB on FRIDAY covers the Late Economic Sector cycle including Energy, Staples, Pharma, Utilities and Chemicals sector stocks. REUTERS RIC - (SNPP.BX, ROMP.BX, OILT.BX, PTRI.BX, PEXI.BX, ENPL.BX, TSEL.BX, MOPN.BX, BERS.BX, ALUM.BX, OLTC.BX, ALRO.BX, OTSP.BX, AMSL.BX, AZOM.BX, VNCA.BX, PPLS.BX, MJMR.BX, SIZA.BX, CBCM.BX, ZIMC.BX, PCLR.BX, ATBE.BX, SCDB.BX, BIOF.BX, DAFR.BRQ)

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CHANNELS INDIA - MID ECONOMIC TURNS DOWN

BHEL DAILY. There is no negative confirmation here. LARSEN DAILY. Prices break down. Minor trend remains negative. BAJAJ AUTO DAILY. Prices push back into channels after testing resistances and with a potential shooting star. MAHINDRA WEEKLY. Candle formations remain negative. MARUTI WEEKLY. Maruti continues to move up in the intermediate channel. We don’t have a reversal signal yet. TATA MOTORS. WEEKLY. Small body candle indecision but not negative confirmation. BHARTI WEEKLY. Negative candle formations are all over. RELIANCE COM DAILY. A break at 290 will confirm negativity. BLUESTAR WEEKLY. Engulfing bearish suggests a reversal. CROMPTON WEEKLY. Prices are still below key resistance.

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CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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DOW. THE CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE W-X-Y SEEMS COMPLETE

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GLOBAL

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ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.GLOBAL is a perspective product published on Monday. The report highlights top GLOBAL indices and emerging market indices viz. Dow Jones Industrial (.DJI), S&P 500 (.GSPC), German DAX (.GDAXI), Russian IRTS (.IRTS), Shanghai Composite (.SSEC), Nikkei 225 (.N225), Brazil BOVESPA (.BVSP), Indian Sensex (.BSESN). The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers and market trends.

REUTERS RICS: .BVSP, .IRTS, .FCHI, .GDAXI, .GSPC, .DJI, .N225, .SSEC, .BSESN

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NIKKEI IRON&STEEL INDEX. THE CORRECTIVE DOWN CONTINUES. ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED


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WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL


WAVES.ROM - BETNG COMPLETES MINOR 3

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WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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THE ORPHEUS NEWSLETTER - 28 SEP 09

THE NUMERIC RANKING
Just like performance cycles, time triads are the basis for numeric ranking. Are you upset that you bought HDFC Bank when SBI moved up, you bought Caterpillar but GE delivered, in March 2009 low you put your bets on Nifty but the CNX IT outperformed blue chips by 40 per cent. That was for buyers; let’s talk about sellers now. Should I sell stronger assets, or the weaker ones? Now that natural gas has outperformed crude oil by 25 per cent since June 15, should I sell natural gas or oil? Has Infosys topped? “Should I book profits selling Infosys or is a short better on CNX IT?”READ MORE

TIME ANALYTICS
ALPHA.ROM – WHAT DOES BETXT VS SNP UP 14% MEAN?
ALPHA.IND – SBI, STERLITE, LNT CLOSE
ALPHA.INDIA – READY FOR A TURN!!
ALPHA.ROM – TRENDING VS. ANTICIPATING
ALPHA.GLOBAL – BOEING VS. OIL

INDIA
TATA COMMUNICATIONS. ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED
WAVES.INDIA - UP BUT TOPPING
CHANNELS INDIA - LATE ECONOMIC - MANY KEY REVERSALS AHEAD
CHANNELS INDIA - EARLY ECONOMIC SECTOR TURNS DOWN

ROMANIA
CHANNELS BVB - MID ECONOMIC UPDATE
WAVES.ROM - BETFI HITS KEY FIB TARGET
CHANNELS.BVB - TIME AND RISK
CHANNELS BVB - EARLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

GLOBAL
WAVES.GLOBAL - DOW HEADS INTO 10,00
WAVES.AGRO - THE SWEET BULL
WAVES.FOREX - EURUSD INTERMEDIATE (MULTI WEEK) TOP IS HERE

FORUM UPDATES

NEWS
ORPHEUS RESEARCH REPORT MAKES IT TO TOP 10
ORPHEUS TURNS 4
ORPHEUS TO MANAGE THOMSON REUTERS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FORUM


CHANNELS.BVB - EARLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

SUMMARY: SIF 1 WEEKLY (SIF1) Prices reach mid channel line resistance. We need a clear break here to look for further positivity. SIF2 WEEKLY (SIF2) Prices reach mid channel line resistance. We need a clear break here to look for further positivity. SIF3 WEEKLY (SIF3) Prices near intermediate (multi week) channel highs into resistance zone. SIF4 WEEKLY (SIF4) Small body candle suggest indecision. SIF5 WEEKLY (SIF5) Key levels to watch lie at 1.3. BANCA TRANSILVANIA WEEKLY (TLV) Small body candle highlight indecision. ERSTE WEEKLY (EBS) Small body candle highlight indecision. BRD DAILY (BRD) A break at mid channel line will be negative. IMPACT WEEKLY (IMP) After multiple weeks of sideways action prices broke the key level at 0.5  moving higher. Minor trend is positive. SSIF BROKER  WEEKLY (BRK) The sideways action continues. We need a clear break above 0.3 for a sustained positivity.

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CHANNELS.BVB is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and focuses on stocks more than Indices. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.ROM and CHANNELS.ROM are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers just BVB stocks all mid cap and small cap.

CHANNELS.BVB on MONDAY covers the Early Economic Sector cycle including Financials and Discretionary sector stocks.

REUTERS RIC - (BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, BRKU.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF5.BX, BCCA.BX, ASAG.BX, FLAA.BX, EFOR.BX, TUFE.BX, SIPA.BX, ELBU.BX, ERST.BX, IMPT.BX)

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

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ALPHA.GLOBAL - BOEING VS. OIL

The first pair we tested on performance cycles were BOEING vs. OIL in July 2008. Oil was heading into new highs every day and Boeing was underperforming. Time fractals suggested that it was time for the performance cycle to turn in favor of the Industrial major. What happened was historical. The performance cycle we were tracking had a nine month periodicity. Oil crashed from 145 levels to 35 and despite all the negativity on equity Boeing outperformed. The pair made above 30% for the period.

We have come a long way since then. We have managed to reduce holding periods and made the pairs more tradable. We are using many filtering techniques to identify pairs, similar sector, beta sensitivities and pairing stocks against DOW. The latest ALPHA GLOBAL introduces 10 Global pairs, four against DOW Industrials, one pair from Industrial sector (United Tech, Boeing), one from staples (Macdonald’s and Coca Cola), a few cross sector (Boeing and Exxon) and a few cross asset (Dow vs. Oil and Dow vs. Gold). The top running pairs are Boeing vs. Exxon, Dow vs. Exxon, Coca Cola vs. Macdonald’s at 24%, 19% and 6% respectively. We are the only research company in the world to claim that Dow vs. Oil or Dow vs. Gold move in performance cycles at all time frames. Understanding such cyclicality can not only give tradable opportunities but also help in asset selection. To know more on Alpha, performance cycles or time triads write to us or visit econohistory.com, timetriads.com  for primers and other research articles.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only and short only strategy product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers DOW, S&P500, SENSEX (INDIA), GOLD, SILVER, EURO DOLLAR, YEN DOLLAR, 10 YEAR US TREASURY BONDS, 10 YEAR GERMAN BUND.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

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ALPHA.ROM - TRENDING VS. ANTICIPATING

ALPHA is a trending system. A trending system is different from an anticipatory system. Trending system follows the trend and does not give a reversal signal till price changes direction. Anticipatory system on the other hand anticipates when the reversal can be expected and gives early warning signals regarding change in trend. Now both these aspects are connected to each other. TIME as a matter of fact has both a trend and structure that can assist in anticipating reversals. As we mentioned prior we are working on anticipatory systems, which will improve our overall stock picking ability. At this stage ALPHA ROMANIA remains positive. The only negatives are the facts that a few performers like BRD are exhausting against their counter pair assets like BETXT, BET (Blue chip exhaustion is not a positive sign for the market) and fresh signals on BETC and TGN have not returned large gains over the last 10 days.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only and short only strategy product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

TIME ARBITRAGE portfolio has five pairs now viz. BRD-BET, BETXT-SNP, SIF2-SIF5, BRD-BETXT, BET-SNP. The above tracker will be updated on a daily basis. The freshly opened trades will have the shortest holding periods. The type of trade will be depicted in the degree i.e. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 4% per traded pair. BRD/BET means LONG BRD, SHORT BET. This also means +A-B. When the pair inverts to BET/BRD, it would mean SHORT BRD, LONG BET meaning -A+B.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers SIF2, SIF5, BRD, ERST, TGN. BET, BETFI, BETNG, BETXT, SNP.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

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