Archive for November, 2009

WAVES.INDIA - PREFERRED CONTINUES TO LOOK LOWER

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ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH

WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

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WAVES.GOLD - Gold 1200 is here

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WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL


CHANNELS.BVB - EARLY ECONOMIC UPDATE - RESISTANCES TURN INTO SUPPORTS

SUMMARY: SIF1 DAILY Prices form a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S). A clear break is needed at 1 to confirm this negative pattern. SIF 2 DAILY Prices form a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S). A clear break is needed at 1 to confirm this negative pattern. SIF3 DAILY Prices form a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S). A clear break is needed at 0.6 to confirm this negative pattern. SIF4 60MIN The support turned into a resistance. Below 0.72 we are in negative territory. SIF5 DAILY Prices test previous resitances at 1.3 and turn lower. Any positivity can appear only above 1.3. BRD DAILY A multi month resitance was broken and now it should become support. Above 13 we remain positive. SSIF BROKER DAILY (BRK) Previous support becomes resistance. Below 0.23 we are in negative territory. ERSTE DAILY Prices retest the July 09 support. A clear break at 120 brings negativity. TLV WEEKLY Prices continue the rise, but for a shooting star candle, a sing of exhaustion. As long as the candle in not broken the scenario remains negative. TURISM FELIX WEEKLY (TUFE) Below 0.22 we are in negative teritory.

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CHANNELS.BVB is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and focuses on stocks more than Indices. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.ROM and CHANNELS.ROM are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers just BVB stocks all mid cap and small cap.

CHANNELS.BVB on MONDAY covers the Early Economic Sector cycle including Financials and Discretionary sector stocks. REUTERS RIC - (BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, BRKU.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF5.BX, BCCA.BX, ASAG.BX, FLAA.BX, EFOR.BX, TUFE.BX, SIPA.BX, ELBU.BX, ERST.BX, IMPT.BX)

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ALPHA.GLOBAL - Short Pfizer, Long J&J continues

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ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers DOW, S&P500, SENSEX (INDIA), GOLD, SILVER, EURO DOLLAR, YEN DOLLAR, 10 YEAR US TREASURY BONDS, 10 YEAR GERMAN BUND.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

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ALPHA.INDIA - Grasim to outperform L&T

The pair performance cycle between Grasim vs. L&T has reached a low and suggests a turn around. This means Grasim should outperform L&T now. Performance pair cycles isolates extreme divergences between highly correlated and similar sector peers too. We have illustrated the backtested results of the pair. The tendency has changed in favor of Grasim now.  The latest ALPHA.INDIA carries the top performance and pair performance cycles with the latest numeric ranking for stocks and sector Indices. Enjoy the latest ALPHA.INDIA.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals.  Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

TIME ARBITRAGE portfolio has 18 pairs CNXIT-NIFTY, RELIANCE-NIFTY, TCS-NIFTY, ONGC-NIFTY, INFOSYS-CNXIT, ONGC-RELIANCE, HDBK-ICBK, BHEL-ACC, GRAS-LNT, HLL-ITC, SBI-HDFC, NIFTY-STERLITE, NIFTY-HDBK, SBI-NIFTY, BHEL-NIFTY, NIFTY-ACC, TCS-CNXIT and SBI-HDBK. Minor degree averaged 10-30 days and intermediate degree trade averages above 30 days. The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 4% per traded pair. CNXIT/INFOSYS +A-B means LONG CNXIT, SHORT INFOSYS.  While CNXIT/INFOSYS –A+B means SHORT CNXIT,  LONG INFOSYS.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers NIFTY, CNXIT, NSEBANK, RELIANCE, INFOSYS, ONGC, CIPLA, ICICI BANK, HDFC BANK, TISCO,  BHEL, ACC, GRASIM, L&T, HLL, ITC, SBI, HDFC,  STERLITE

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver?  Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

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CHANNELS.INDIA - EARLY ECONOMIC - ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED SPECIAL

SUMMARY: DLF DAILY (DLF) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED As anticipated, prices continued to push lower till key levels at 330. Sub respective levels we should get more negative confirmation. ICICI BANK WEEKLY (ICBK) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED Prices continued to push lower till near psychological 800 levels as anticipated. Minor trend remains negative. STATE BANK OF INDIA DAILY (SBI) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED As anticipated, prices continued to push lower in the C/3 wave down. Key levels lie at 2,120. HDFC BANK DAILY (HDBK) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED As anticipated, prices turn back from key resistance levels near psychological 1,800. The impulse up seems complete. UNITECH DAILY (UNTE) ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED Prices continued to push lower till key supports at 73 levels. We need a clear break sub respective levels to continue to look lower.

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CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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ALPHA ENERGY: Chevron moves up in rankings

What does it mean if a stock nears top ranking among its peers, like Chevron is doing now among the top 11 energy and utility assets in the world? (The stock moved up a place higher from last week and is at the second spot now). It means that Chevron’s best performance is behind and not very far in future the energy major should start underperforming the rest of its peers. We carried Long Gazprom, Short Chevron case last time. This time the pair performance cycle Chevron – Verbund is in the spotlight. Chevron is a DOW 30 blue chip and Verbund is a Utility major from Austria. The pair performance cycle has reached a top and should turn lower. This means Long Verbund – Short Chevron is a pair to watch. According to us the idea of performance is cyclical, which means that the best performer will underperform in the future and vice versa. We have carried comparative numeric ranking between energy companies and energy indices. The rankings include companies from India, America, Austria, Russia, Romania. IPNG, the natural gas index is the top performer and potentially least on allocation for us. While Russian Gazprom still is the worst performer over the quarter and remains potentially the best regional stock to allocate. Apart from the absolute rankings the latest ALPHA.ENERGY illustrates performance cycles among energy companies. There are other interesting trends that one can observe. Gazprom should outperform Chevron, VERB and XLE. IPNG should underperform XLE, while NATGAS should outperform XLE (SPDR). Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ENERGY.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals.  Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

ASSETS COVERED : Natural Gas, Gazprom, Verb, OMV, Reliance, ONGC (India), XLE (SPDR), Chevron (USA), Exxon (USA) , Petrom (Romania)

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver?  Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

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The Hedge Opportunity

Performance cycles indicate that Hedging could be an opportunity and not just an imperfect risk management technique.

The history and the idea

Hedging is one of the first ideas modern finance taught us. Hedging as an exercise was started for a farmer, who wanted to insulate himself from movements in agricultural commodity price. The commodity prices fluctuate and create a risk. If the actual price of agricultural commodity rises a lot between planting and harvest, the farmer stands to profit, but if the actual price drops, it could lead to a loss. A hedge allowed the farmer to sell a number of wheat futures contracts equivalent to his crop size at planting time. This way he could effectively lock in the price of wheat. Now he no longer cares whether the current price rises or falls, because he is guaranteed a price by the contract. Overtime the risk management shifted to stock prices. Change the farmer for a stock trader, who believes that the stock price of Company A is volatile and could fall. He offsets the position with the index or another sector peer, now if the market falls and the stock, the investor has locked in a price and will not lose.

The Aim

In both cases, the aim of the farmer and the stock investor is to reduce risk. None of them expects this strategy to make a profit. Hedging is a risk management strategy between two assets of a pair. In finance, a hedge is a position established in one market in an attempt to offset exposure to price fluctuations in some opposite position in another market with the goal of minimizing one’s exposure to unwanted risk. The first think they taught us in school was that a hedge is not perfect or perfect hedges are rare. A perfect hedge is the one that completely eliminates risk. Hedging with equity futures uses a technique called beta hedging. Beta is the sensitivity of a stock against the market. To calculate how much quantity to offset, beta is used. The more sensitive the stock, the larger offsetting value is needed. While the lesser sensitive the stock, the lesser the value of the offsetting leg. When two different beta stocks are used in a hedge, beta has to be tracked during the period of the hedge and necessary adjustments to be done when required. Simply putting it is a cumbersome process which at the end of it is supposed to reduce risk, imperfectly.

Hedge and Forget Approach

Investing industry is not alien to the idea of hedging and many readers may have attempted an odd hedge atleast once in their investing life. There are very few studies on hedge “inefficiency” and what are the real results of ‘hedge and forget’ cases where no beta tracking and adjustments are done over the period of the hedge. The idea of inefficient pair is linked to the ‘hedge and forget’ approach. If over the period of the hedge a pair diverges more than the risk free rate of interest, hedging is an opportunity to profit contrary to popular belief as a risk management approach. The idea of inefficient pair flies in the face of hedging. If 100% annualized difference between the long and the short leg is what we are hedging against, it really makes sense to profit from them rather than to avoid them.

Hedging and the performance cycle

Hedging as a risk limiting and not a profiting strategy is generational knowledge. Performance cycles prove that hedging or trading pairs is both a cash conserving and profiting strategy provided it is based on performance cycles, time fractals approach. We highlighted large divergences between Indian sector indices in H12009 India outlook and then in Grasim and L&T pair a few weeks back.
Cases

Today we look at a few DOW 30 pairs. This is to challenge the idea that inefficiency is limited to the Indian region. Inefficiency exists globally. We have take three DOW 30 pairs, Chevron - Exxon, JP Morgan- American Express and Microsoft and HP. These are high correlation pairs and selling one and buying the other can be based on fundamental reasons or on mean reversion strategies. The backtested results are poor in the respective strategies, but tested for performance cyclicality for a period of 18 months the strategy delivered an annualized 70% (Chevron - Exxon), 169% (JPM - AXP), 125% (MSFT - HP). Out of 17 signals on three pairs, 7 signals delivered more net gain on the pair compared to individual legs. Conventionally speaking this kind of strategy where net gain on the pair is more than individual legs should be impossible to isolate and very rare. Back testing proof is an academic exercise and implementation and trading with real money another, however isolating such high differences between tightly correlated pair without a single large loss does indicate that hedging might be an opportunity for profit rather than an academic technique for risk management. If hedging is so imperfect than arbitrage opportunities in markets are limitless just like alpha.

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CHANNELS.BVB - LATE ECONOMIC UPDATE - UTILITIES ARE POSITIVE

SUMMARY: TRANSELECTRICA DAILY (TEL) Daily moving average crossover is positive with prices above it. A breach at key level 0.618 FIB at 13.47 would take prices higher. TRANSGAZ DAILY (TGN) Prices continue the rise in the multi week up trended channel. Minor trend is positive and the next key level is at 165. ALRO WEEKLY (ALR) Prices did not manage to cross the key level at 3, but remain in the rising multi month channel. For further positivity it is needed for prices to remain above key level at 3. OLTCHIM WEEKLY (OLT) Prices do not manage to go above key level at 0.26. Below the level 0.618 FIB at 0.21 we are in negative territory. ROMPETROL WELL SERVICES WEEKLY (PTR) Weekly moving average crossover is positive with prices above it. Minor trend is positive. DAFORA WEEKLY (DAFR) Prices continue the sideways movement above key level at 0.1 inside the multi month rising channel. For positivity prices should rise above the mid channel line at 0.12. ROMPETROL WEEKLY (RRC) Prices are at FIB 0.618 level at 0.07. Above this level positivity continues. PETROM WEEKLY (SNP) Prices are at key FIB 0.618 level at 0.26. Minor trend remains negative. ANTIBIOTICE WEEKLY (ATB) Weekly moving average crossover is negative with prices below it. Minor trend is negative. ZENTIVA DAILY (SCD) Prices test the key level at 0.7. A breach at this level would continue the positivity further.

CHANNELS.BVB is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and focuses on stocks more than Indices. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.ROM and CHANNELS.ROM are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers just BVB stocks all mid cap and small cap.

CHANNELS.BVB on FRIDAY covers the Late Economic Sector cycle including Energy, Staples, Pharma, Utilities and Chemicals sector stocks.
REUTERS RIC - (SNPP.BX, ROMP.BX, OILT.BX, PTRI.BX, PEXI.BX, ENPL.BX, TSEL.BX, MOPN.BX, BERS.BX, ALUM.BX, OLTC.BX, ALRO.BX, OTSP.BX, AMSL.BX, AZOM.BX, VNCA.BX, PPLS.BX, MJMR.BX, SIZA.BX, CBCM.BX, ZIMC.BX, PCLR.BX, ATBE.BX, SCDB.BX, BIOF.BX, DAFR.BRQ)

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CHANNELS.INDIA - ENERGY SHOWS SIGNS OF NEGATIVITY

SUMMARY: RELIANCE DAILY The corrective structure up seems complete. Prices make an ENGULFING BEARISH candle formation. Immediate targets lie at 1,040. ONGC DAILY The B/2 wave up seems complete. Sub key levels at 1,170 we should get more negative confirmation. TISCO DAILY Prices make a KEY REVERSAL bar near previous high levels. A clear break below key FIB levels at 522 would be a negative confirmation. HINDALCO WEEKLY Prices continue to hold 0.618 key FIB levels. RSI non-confirmation suggests an exhaustion near current levels. GRASIM DAILY Prices are pushing higher and might retest the neckline at key 2,460 levels. AMBUJA DAILY Prices bounced back from previous low levels. Key resistances lie at 96 (previous supports) and psychological 100 (key FIB). ACC DAILY Retesting the neckline (RED). RANBAXY DAILY Prices are completing the impulsive structure up. Key resistance levels lie at 450. NTPC DAILY Prices continue to hold key resistance levels at 217. We expect further subminor negativity from here. CIPLA DAILY The corrective structure up seems complete. Immediate targets lie at psychological 300.

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CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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