Archive for February, 2010

Orpheus wishes all it's Indian members Happy HOLI


Alpha.Romania - Why is pharma underperforming?

Did you know that for the last 200 days, you could have done better on your Romanian market portfolio if you would have not looked at Pharmaceutical stocks ATB and BIO? Both the stocks underperformed the BETXT index by more than 50%. Did you know that Alpha Numeric ranking and performance cycles positivity on TEL and TGN compared to BETXT since Dec has led to an outperformance of 30% and 19% against BETXT? Do you know why RRC, DAFORA and SNP are still running positive compared to BETXT?  Do you know whether SIF5 will outperform BETXT in the weeks ahead or not? Do you know what will happen to ATB and BIO performance compared to BETXT in the next 200 days? The latest Alpha Romania carries the numeric rankings, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles, strategy updates, pair tracker and long only - short only running signals.

Pair Tracker

Strategy Update

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles - I

Performance Cycles - II

Alpha is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time Arbitrage portfolio has five pairs now viz. BRD-BET, BETXT-SNP, SIF2-SIF5, BRD-BETXT, BET-SNP. The above tracker will be updated on a daily basis. The freshly opened trades will have the shortest holding periods. Minor degree averaged 10-30 days and intermediate degree trade averages above 30 days. The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 2% per traded pair. SIF2/SIF5 +A-B means LONG SIF2, SHORT SIF5. While SIF2/SIF5 –A+B means SHORT SIF2, LONG SIF5.

Coverage: SIF2, SIF5, SIF4, BRD, ERSTE, TGN, BETI, BETFI, BETNG, BETXT, SNP, DAFORA, TERAPLAST, ATB, BIO, BCC

Stop loss and Exits are activated at 4%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

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<strong>Alpha</strong> is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

<strong>Performance cycles</strong> is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

<strong>Time Arbitrage</strong> portfolio has five pairs now viz. BRD-BET, BETXT-SNP, SIF2-SIF5, BRD-BETXT, BET-SNP. The above tracker will be updated on a daily basis. The freshly opened trades will have the shortest holding periods. Minor degree averaged 10-30 days and intermediate degree trade averages above 30 days. The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 2% per traded pair. SIF2/SIF5 +A-B means LONG SIF2, SHORT SIF5. While SIF2/SIF5 –A+B means SHORT SIF2, LONG SIF5.

<strong>Coverage</strong>: SIF2, SIF5, SIF4, BRD, ERSTE, TGN, BETI, BETFI, BETNG, BETXT, SNP, DAFORA, TERAPLAST, ATB, BIO, BCC

<strong>Stop loss and Exits</strong> are activated at 4%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

<strong>Time</strong> is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

<strong>Econohistory</strong> is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

<a href=”http://www.orpheus.asia/orpheus/login.php”>To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.</a>

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Ranking the Emirates

Numerically ranking assets and indices in the UAE equity universe illustrates future outperformers.

Emotional Rankings

Comparisons can get controversial. But let’s face it we are on the mean street, market values every asset and index with a traded tick. So why get so touchy about the fact that the asset we love is low or high in rankings. There are a few other aspects of markets we always forget when we get emotional and attached.

Read more…


Ticks.Global - GBPUSD 1.5 is in

TICKS.GLOBAL covers DOW, GOLD, SILVER, OIL, EURUSD, DAX and other global assets and futures on an Intra day basis. The reports are published through a self refreshing webpage. TICKS.GLOBAL is a web based service it is only available through the Orpheus Site.

The best part, it is running free now. To access the report click here.

To access sample report click here TICKS.GLOBAL.1009


Member's Post - Inverted head and shoulder Nifty (India)

In the current scenario Nifty is forming an inverse H&S near the support of 200-SMA, which means that if Nifty manages to hold the recent low of 4675 and breaks above the neckline valued at 4930, a rally of 1000 odd points in Nifty from thereon within a quarter or two will not surprise me.

Dharmesh Patel


Alpha.agro - grains, soyabean to outperform agro complex

The running fresh pairs are long Grains (GRAF.L), long soyabean against short Agricultural Index (AIGA.L). On the other side we are expecting a reversal on sugar and cattle outperformance against the respective benchmark Index. The latest alpha.agro carries numeric rankings, performance cycles, strategy update and running pair trackers.

Strategy Update

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: Wheat, Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, Soyabean, Soyabean Oil, Cotton, Corn, Grains, Agro Indices

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

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The Orpheus Newsletter - 26 Feb 2010

The sugar decay

Shorting sugar really or metaphorically is possible and healthy.

My wife kept us off excess sugar. We stopped ‘juicing’ (drinking sweetened beverages) a few years back, stopped putting loads of sugar tea spoons in our regular cup of coffee or tea and learnt to share a chocolate bar in a week. Can you believe that? Well I could not till I leashed my urge for sweet things. Coming from Delhi, it was harder for me, it still is, I am trying. She also taught me the 80-20 principle of food. You have to control 80% of time what you eat and 20% of the time is when one can indulge with food. I have a confession. I indulged last night and almost elbowed an 8 year old digging into a large bowl of ice-cream….Read more…

TIME ANALYTICS - ECONOHISTORY
The budget strategy (India)
Alpha.India – How to trade Nifty?
Alpha.metals – Long performance silver signals begin
Alpha India – Reading the signals
Alpha.Romania – Impact delivers 69% against BETXT
Alpha.global.Indices – Short Hong Kong, long Dow delivers 17%
Alpha.Energy – Nobel (6.5%), Gazprom(17%), Anadarko (16%) outperform Brent
Alpha.India – Long Maruti, short M&M delivers 15%
Alpha.metals – What is with Nickel?
Alpha.Romania – TEL outperforms BETXT by 17%
Introducing Alpha Agro – Short Sweet, Long Corn
Alpha India – Performance Tracker

INDIA
Channels.India – Late economic performance cycles
Waves.India – Performance cycles are in sync with our preferred view
Channels.India – Anticipated and happened cases
Waves.India – Completing the second corrective wave up
Channels.India – DLF. Anticipated and happened
Channels.India – Late economic corrective structures
Waves.India – The anticipated subminor bounceback happened
Channels.India – Tata Motors. Anticipated and happened
Waves.India – Nsebank Preferred and Alternate
Channels.India – Early economic still points lower
Waves.India – The anticipated downmove continues

ROMANIA
Channels.Bvb – Late Econimic Update – Japanese Candlestick
Waves.Rom – Transelectrica. Above 15 we continue to look higher till 20.
Waves.Rom – TGN. Corrective structures that should resolve higher. (Happens)
Channels.BVB – Early Economic Update – Japanese Candlesticks
Channels.BVB – Late Economic Update – Patterns
Waves.Rom – BETNG. Retesting previous highs.
Channels.BVB – Mid Economic Update
Waves.Rom – Transgaz – Anticipated and happened
Channels.BVB – Early Economic Update
Channels.BVB – Late Economic Update – Momentum
Waves.ROM – Transelectrica – Anticipated and happened

GLOBAL
Waves.Forex – EUR/USD: Below 1.35 prices could have a free fall till 1.25
Waves.Oil – The C wave down begins
Waves.Forex – EURRON -Prices are in an ongoing minor sideways triangle.
Waves.gold – Completing corrective X
Waves.oil – Energy complex gets ready for a C leg down
Waves.Forex – EUR/USD: Below 1.35 prices could have a free fall till 1.25
Waves.Global – Dow. Preferred view continues to point lower
Waves.Agro – Wheat at lows
Waves.forex – Danish Krone non confirmations
WAVES.Forex – INRJPY continues to point lower
Waves.global – Dow begins the iii of 3

NEWS
Member’s post – Nifty Vix
Member’s post – DLF (India)
Bill Meridian on DOW, GOLD and OIL
Investment Psychology
Emirates Yield Curve
The Emirate Gold
Member’s Post – Dollar Index and NR
What’s with Zurich SMI?
Orpheus Interviews Experts
Research is king
“We humans co-evolve with our tools. We change the tools, and the tools change us, and that cycle repeats.” Jeff Bezos
Archives

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Channels.Bvb - Late Econimic Update - Japanese Candlestick

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CHANNELS.BVB is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and focuses on stocks more than Indices. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.ROM and CHANNELS.ROM are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers just BVB stocks all mid cap and small cap.

CHANNELS.BVB on FRIDAY covers the Late Economic Sector cycle including Energy, Staples, Pharma, Utilities and Chemicals sector stocks.
REUTERS RIC - (SNPP.BX, ROMP.BX, OILT.BX, PTRI.BX, PEXI.BX, ENPL.BX, TSEL.BX, MOPN.BX, BERS.BX, ALUM.BX, OLTC.BX, ALRO.BX, OTSP.BX, AMSL.BX, AZOM.BX, VNCA.BX, PPLS.BX, MJMR.BX, SIZA.BX, CBCM.BX, ZIMC.BX, PCLR.BX, ATBE.BX, SCDB.BX, BIOF.BX, DAFR.BRQ)

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

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Member's post - Nifty Vix

Attached is the chart of India Vix which clearly shows that rise in volatility from the bottom around 20 levels till 32 is clearly a five wave advanced. And recent drop in Volatility is the expanded flat a-b-c, which is wave 2 or wave B, which is the current state of the market showing narrow trading range and dull price movement. But the principle of volatility says contraction in volatility is generally followed by the expansion in volatility. Same way once the wave B (or Wave 2) of Vix completes then wave C (or wave 3) should resume which is likely to target 43.

Vishvesh


Channels.India - Late economic performance cycles

GRASIM DAILY Prices retest trend channel supports. A clear break here would push prices lower till key 2,500 levels or even lower. Performance cycles are topping. Grasim is the top potential underperformer stock for the weeks ahead. ACC DAILY Prices seem to be in an a-b-c corrective structure down which could push lower till psychological 800 levels. Performance cycles are topping.

To access member’s area or Orpheus estore click here.

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also. CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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