Archive for May 13th, 2010

Waves.Romania - Primary resistances hold

WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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The gold exponential

Exponentiality is associated with herding not with value. Exponentiality can be defined as rising inclination in prices, larger gains in smaller time which visually looks like a rocket headed into sky or a bottom less pit. A look at Gold prices suggests this positive exponentiality.

Exponential Function

Look at platinum in (1999-2008), look at zinc (2003-2006), look at Dow (1974 – 2007).  Just to make the case clearer we have juxtaposed Dow (1974-2007) with gold (1999-2010), they look similar. Now this is not the classic intermarket chart we see every day, as gold is considered an asset of bad times, while Dow is for good times. Gold is also known as the crisis commodity that prospers in tough times. So the important questions one can ask is are we in an ongoing crisis as rising gold prices suggest? Or are we looking at an ending crisis as exponentiality and topping of gold suggests?

If we look at the element of time gold has been rising for a record 10 years without a retracement more than 38.2%. The metal has not witnessed a fall bigger than 9 months in time. While the Dow price exponential structure (1974-2007) topped in Oct 2007 and crashed 50%. Building on the case, we have more of a topping case for gold here and an easing crisis rather than what seems to be out there.

Out there we have sovereign risk, euro under attack, more than 12 month old recovery and if we look at the sentiment indicator, all time historical highs on gold will generate bullish sentiment extremes . This means more of an exhausting, up but topping case than otherwise.  To understand gold further we also plotted the precious metals against Euro and Japanese Yen. The aim was to take out the dollar bias. Gold denominated in Euro and Yen both were at weekly momentum extremes. Gold in Yen was still below 1980’s high and Gold denominated in Euro was gapping in the Reuters 3000Xtra charts. Considering EURUSD has also gapped recently on daily data, we are not surprised that price gaps on gold euro are conspicuous.

A closer look at industrial metals also suggest down structures. How can industrial metals correct while gold and silver push higher? Is this not a non confirmation? Even now things don’t add up if you are expecting a primary (more than 9 months)degree crisis. Things add up, if we assume intermediate negativity on equity markets not heading into Q4 followed by a global recovery.  We will have to wait and see how the respective picture unfolds.

This article was written for Alrroya

To read the complete report.  Download the latest Waves.Gold

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Waves.gold - Anticipated copper reversal happens


We gladly introduce Ashish Kyal, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. Ashish is the contributing columnist for the weekly Waves Gold. He started his career as a business analyst with NSE.iT, a 100% subsidiary of National Stock Exchange of India. He was involved assisting in designing and developing a road map for Risk Management model for Futures and Options commodity market. He is currently associated with one of the leading investment banks and is heading a team of risk quantitative analysts within capital markets division. He has more than 4 years of capital market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets and is currently on the board of trustee of Association of Technical Market Analysts (ATMA. India).

He completed his Masters of Management Studies from Somaiya Institute of Management Studies & Research and Bachelor of Engineering from Mumbai. He has written for “Technically Speaking” (MTA Newsletter USA) and has written extensively on global assets including metals, alternative rnergy, agro commodities and bonds. Ashish is also involved in training and has been invited as a guest speaker at a host of colleges in Mumbai to spread awareness and importance of Technical Analysis. He uses Elliott and time cycles.

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published weekly. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL

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