How did the worst performer Spain reach so far?

Spain beat Germany to book first ever World Cup final slot.

source: wikipedia

This is what we said on 14 Jun

“We don’t want to make it all work and no play. So on a lighter note, here goes the sports bet. Brazil, Germany, Italy have been in the top 3 positions, 9, 10 and 7 times respectively since 1930s. This makes them the top rankers. Performance cycles suggest that top rankers disappoint and worst rankers surprise as performance reverses. The question of value for money does not come from picking a previous winner but one who has more odds against it.”

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Econohistory, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on Time patterns, Time forecasts, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Orpheus e-store

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States

2 Responses to “How did the worst performer Spain reach so far?”

  1. DPM says:

    It is easy to say who will win using the strategy when you know just the teams playing in the final. But, it is very tough to predict top 2 teams at the Beginning of the tournament(coz the performance of Brazil and Germany from the table above).


  2. Orpheus says:

    Unlike markets, sports data is limited. Performance cycles are about worst being value and top being expensive. The aim was to see whether even with limited data such cyclicality could be seen. This is why at the start of the games we said countries who have already been in the last four many times should not deliver and countries which have made to last 4 very few times have a higher chance of reaching the top 4. Spain was the worst performer since 1950.

    We mentioned Spain later in semi finals and not at the start of the games, but we did mention that Germany, Brazil, Italy should underperform. I know it’s all looks magic now. But even with limited data one could see elements of cyclicality in social mood index (sports).

    Orpheus applies performance cycles in capital markets. We have just started to explore the subject’s applicability in other areas. We might be more prepared by UEFA EURO 2012. And believe me there was a lot of money lost betting on Holland in the final. Even with 50% probability life does not become too easy. Stock markets are like the final, either you win or lose. If it was so easy, we would have a found a solution for endless prosperity by now.

Post a comment