Archive for July 11th, 2010

Channels.India - HDBK inverted

HDBK DAILY Inverted. The Head and Shoulders continuation pattern suggests potential further minor positivity. Neckline levels lie at psychological 2,000. Performance cycles are still negative.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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Top underperformer Spain wins

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


Alpha.India - ITC up 13%

The Nifty weekly Evening Star formations continue to hold and suggest that the market view remains “Up but Topping”.  Though prices have broken out of the sideways action and suggest further upside, we continue to look at the current formation as a completing w-x-y-x-z corrective which could take prices to previous highs or marginally higher. Our Numeric Ranking continues to suggest HDFC as the top potential underperformer and Wipro as the top potential outperformer. The sector ranking suggests that Consumer Durables and Banks are most likely to underperform the broad market, meanwhile Bseoil should outperform in the weeks ahead.

Our pair tracker remains unchanged, with the four pairs illustrated below. Our top pair is SBI – Maruti which has brought gains over 10%. We are alert regarding a signal on the Nifty – Tisco, Nifty – ACC, Nifty – Wipro, Nifty – ONGC and HDFC – Wipro pairs.

Our long only – short only tracker carries 11 positive and 5 negative signals, with fresh buy signals on Nifty, CNXIT and Ranbaxy. Our best negative stock remains Tata Motors , meanwhile Sun is the best positive one according to the NR filtering. The top winner remains ITC with 13% gains.

The latest Alpha India carries long only – short only signals, pair tracker, numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles.

For more information on Alpha India mail us at [email protected]

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009
Alpha India

Alpha is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation.
Coverage India: BSE Health Care and components
Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

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Why is Gold in a CYCLE correction?

Whether we look at Gold, as a completing 5 primary or a B wave, the path of least resistance seems down for Gold. There are clear reasons why Gold is in a cycle degree correction from 2008 and not a completing impulse.  A few reasons, the current move up from 700 lacks an expanding diagonal look. Second, internal subdivisions of the move up look more like a w-x-y-x-z corrective structure. Third, a B wave can retrace up to 138% of A. Above this Silver and Gold have the largest non confirmation. Gold made a new high, while Silver is below previous high. If Silver in a corrective and completing a B up, it is hard to place an impulsing count on gold. In conclusion, gold and all of precious metals and industrials metals complex is headed lower.

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published weekly. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL

Vivek Marne is currently working with BDO Consulting in Oman, providing services in determining new business opportunities for various clients to understand markets and companies and identifying ways in which clients can become high-performance businesses. He has worked previously with KPMG (global risk and compliance services of manufacturing companies in India) and with Irevna – Division of CRISIL (fundamental analysis of Information technology companies). Vivek is passionate about Technical Analysis, a self taught Elliott Wave Technician. He conducts technical analyis on a variety of financial instruments on his blog vivekoutlook.blogspot.com. He covers weekly WAVES Metals for Orpheus Research.

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Introducing Vivek Marne

Vivek is a qualified Chartered Accountant (Institute of Chartered Accountants of India). Vivek is passionate about Technical Analysis, a self taught Elliott Wave Technician. He conducts technical analyis on a variety of financial instruments on his blog vivekoutlook.blogspot.com. He will be covering commodities for Orpheus Research.
Vivek has worked with BDO Consulting in Oman, as Business Consultant working on feasibility studies for expansion projects for companies. He has worked with Irevna – Division of CRISIL conducting fundamental analysis - sell side analysis - of Information technology companies.

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EURUSD heads into minor resistance

Enjoy the latest Waves.Forex


Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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