Archive for August, 2010

Channels.India - BHEL. Anticipated and happened

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

Orpheus Store

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Orpheus heads to India


Orpheus heads to Mumbai for Bombay Stock Exchange Training.

BSE Training Institute

Launches a Two Day Programme on

“Investing with Time and Performance Cycles”
(The cyclicality of markets can be quantified. This can change the investing process.)

Date: 27 and 28 August 2010, Friday and Saturday

Timing: 9.30 am to 5.30 pm

Programme Aim: The aim of the program is to illustrate the mathematical and patterned nature of ‘Time’ and how it can be used to understand asset performance, the big picture and initiate new investment approaches.

The Time Cycle: Market Cyclicality, History of Time Cycles Research, Exponentially in Nature Fractals, Exponentiality in Time, Time Triads, Time Fractals, Cycles of Gold, Interest Rate, Inflation, Kondratieff Wave – The missing link, Forecasts – Oil, Global Outlook, Indian markets from a Time Cycle perspective, Intermarket Cycles.

Performance Cycles: Price divergence between prices, sectors, regions, assets is cyclical and quantifiable, Intermarket analysis, behavioral finance, Socionomics, Black Swan Randomness, Sam Stovall Sector Rotation, Robert Arnott – growth and value divergence, Profiting from price divergence and Outlook and cases.

Who can attend?

Derivatives dealers, Stock brokers, High Net Worth Investors, Custodians, Mutual Funds, Portfolio Managers, Insurance Companies, Banks, Financial Institutions, Corporates, Capital Market Researchers, Forex Traders, Commodity Traders, Energy and Commodity Analysts, Hedge Funds and Management students.

Orpheus Capitals, Global Alternative Research Company

Orpheus Capitals is listed with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent researcher. The research startup is headed by Market Technicians from Market Technicians Association, New York. The research outfit publishes 300 research reports internationally on Reuters and Thomson platforms monthly. The coverage includes global equity, metals, forex, agro, energy, bonds and green assets. The forecasts cover asset classes across time frames. Orpheus is the only company in India, C&E Europe to do intraday research on indices, futures and various other assets.

Speaker Profile: Mukul Pal

Mukul Pal, Co-Founder, Orpheus Capitals is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance. Orpheus Research is registered with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent research company.

He is a member of the Market Technicians association. He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005.  He is also an authorized investment consultant by the CNVM (Romanian Capital Market Regulator).

Mukul has actively researched on ‘Time’ and has written some seminal paper on the mathematical hierarchy of time. His first paper on performance cycles was published in the Kyoto Economics Journal in Mar 2009. Recently his paper on Time Fractals was accepted by the ERN History of Economics Journal and Capital Markets Market Microstructure eJournal (SSRN Economics Research Network).

Time Fractals attempt to explain the exponentiality in nature and markets. The subject has wide application even outside capital markets. He has written extensively on derivatives markets, sentiment indicators, alternative research, investment psychology, commodities and global assets from 1997 till date for local and international publications like the Business Standard (India), The Economic Times (India), E-Mecklai (India), Yahoo Business, Economistul (Romania), Ziarul Financiar (Romania), Bucharest Daily News (Romania), Business Week (Romania), Technically Speaking (MTA Newsletter USA), Euro Physics letters (France) etc.

Mukul is also an active trainer and speaker. He has conducted training programs for Thomson Reuters (Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Albania), Oil and Gas Forum Romania, Bombay Stock Exchange, SIBIU Derivatives Exchange, Bucharest Stock Exchange, Academy of Economic Studies. Orpheus CAPITALS covering India, CEE region and global assets including Metals, Energy, Alternative Energy, Agro Commodities, Bonds, Interest rates and Elf’s across multiple time frames for investing and trading. Orpheus research reports are published internationally on Reuters, Thompson, Yahoo Finance and Business Standard India.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - USA

English (Programme Details)-2
Related Links


Orpheus in Kathmandu

Orpheus is in Kathmandu for a conference on Performance Cycles for the Foreign Exchange & Money Dealers Association of Nepal (FEDAN)

Trading Forex with Performance Cycles
Hotel Radisson, Kathmandu, Nepal
30 August 2010

Performance is cyclical and is based on time cyclicality. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. All of Euro vs. Dollar, Indian Rupee vs. USD, Oil vs. Natural Gas, Gold vs. Platinum and Dow vs. S&p500 have performance cyclicality in them. The presentation will introduce the subject and illustrate how stock picking and trading strategies can be built around the technique. Relative performance is also referred to as Alpha.

Kathmandu, Nepal
09:00-10:30 Performance Cycles
10:45 – 12:15 Elliott and Fibonacci
12:30 – 13:30 Momentum and Cycles
14:30 – 15:30 Target calculation and Cases

Orpheus Capitals, Global Alternative Research Company

Orpheus Capitals is listed with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent researcher. The research startup is headed by Market Technicians from Market Technicians Association, New York. The research outfit publishes 300 research reports internationally on Reuters and Thomson platforms monthly. The coverage includes global equity, metals, forex, agro, energy, bonds and green assets. The forecasts cover asset classes across time frames. Orpheus is the only company in India, C&E Europe to do intraday research on indices, futures and various other assets.

Speaker Profile: Mukul Pal

Mukul Pal, Co-Founder, Orpheus Capitals is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance. Orpheus Research is registered with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent research company.

He is a member of the Market Technicians association. He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is also an authorized investment consultant by the CNVM (Romanian Capital Market Regulator).

Mukul has actively researched on ‘Time’ and has written some seminal paper on the mathematical hierarchy of time. His first paper on performance cycles was published in the Kyoto Economics Journal in Mar 2009. Recently his paper on Time Fractals was accepted by the ERN History of Economics Journal and Capital Markets Market Microstructure eJournal (SSRN Economics Research Network).

Time Fractals attempt to explain the exponentiality in nature and markets. The subject has wide application even outside capital markets. He has written extensively on derivatives markets, sentiment indicators, alternative research, investment psychology, commodities and global assets from 1997 till date for local and international publications like the Business Standard (India), The Economic Times (India), E-Mecklai (India), Yahoo Business, Economistul (Romania), Ziarul Financiar (Romania), Bucharest Daily News (Romania), Business Week (Romania), Technically Speaking (MTA Newsletter USA), Euro Physics letters (France) etc.

Mukul is also an active trainer and speaker. He has conducted training programs for Thomson Reuters (Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Albania), Oil and Gas Forum Romania, Bombay Stock Exchange, SIBIU Derivatives Exchange, Bucharest Stock Exchange, Academy of Economic Studies. Orpheus CAPITALS covering India, CEE region and global assets including Metals, Energy, Alternative Energy, Agro Commodities, Bonds, Interest rates and Elf’s across multiple time frames for investing and trading. Orpheus research reports are published internationally on Reuters, Thompson, Yahoo Finance and Business Standard India.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - USA


Orpheus Rieki (Performance Cycles) featured in Journal of Economic Policy (Sofia)

Download Paper

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Waves.India - CNXIT. Prices break the neckline

Login for orpheus.asia member’s area here.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009
Alpha India

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Orpheus India Research

WAVES.INDIA is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

Orpheus Columnists

Orpheus Store

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Channels.India - Infosys. Anticipated and happened

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

Orpheus Store

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Alpha.India - Revisiting the CNXIT – BSE Metals case

Three weeks ago we talked about two top potential outperformer sectors on the Indian market, CNXIT and BSE Metals. We said that although both should outperform, the CNXIT – Metals pair performance cycles suggests that Metals should outperform more than the Technology sector. Now let’s see what happened during these three weeks. At a first glance, the picture is similar in both cases: a nearly 5% fall in 18 days. However, if we look at the performance cycles, there is a noticeable difference: Metals are still up, while CNXIT has a flat performance cycle and the CNXIT – Metals cycle is still down in favor of Metals. As both price structures suggest further negativity, this means that in the following weeks Metals should fall less than CNXIT.

Our minor view on the Indian market is now down as Nifty broke minor trend channel supports. The Volatility Index remains the top potential outperformer, suggesting a rise in volatility soon. Tisco was dethroned by IDEA as a top potential underperformer.

Our pair trackers carries 4 running pairs: Nifty – Tata Power, Nifty – IDEA, Nifty – Tisco and Nifty – SBI. IDEA, Tisco, SBI and Tata Power are all top potential underperformers according to our Numeric Ranking and should underperform not only INR but also the broad market.

Our long only – short only tracker carries 9 positive and 6 negative signals, with Nifty as the best buy and Reliance Communications as the best sell. The top winner remains SBI.

The latest Alpha India carries pair tracker signals, numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles. For more information on Alpha India mail us at [email protected]

Performance Cycles

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009
Alpha India

Alpha is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation.
Coverage India: BSE Health Care and components
Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Channels.India - Tisco. Anticipated and happened

TISCO DAILY Anticipated and happened Prices break minor trend channel supports, confirming further minor negativity. Our first target lies at previous (x) wave lows.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

Orpheus Store

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Waves.India - Nifty continues to hold minor trend channel supports

Login for orpheus.asia member’s area here.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009
Alpha India

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Orpheus India Research

WAVES.INDIA is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

Orpheus Columnists

Orpheus Store

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Waves.Global - SSEC. We need further negative confirmation below 2,550

Login for orpheus.asia member’s area here.

Orpheus Global Research

Contributing Columnist: Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he’s joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. In 2007 he was authorized as an investment consultant by the Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the WAVES.GLOBAL weekly.

WAVES.GLOBAL is a perspective product published on Wednesday. The report highlights top GLOBAL indices and emerging market indices viz. S&P500 (.SPX), German DAX (.GDAXI), STOXX Europe 600 (.STOXX), Russian IRTS (.IRTS), Nikkei 225 (.N225), Shanghai Composite (.SSEC), Indian Sensex (.BSESN), Thailand SET Index (.SETI), Brazil BOVESPA (.BVSP). The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers and market trends.

REUTERS RICS: .SPX, .GDAXI, .STOXX, .IRTS, .N225, .SSEC, .BSESN, .SETI, .BVSP

Orpheus Columnists

Orpheus Store

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States