Archive for October, 2010

Copper and Crude

Enjoy the latest Alpha Global.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Time Analytics research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities


Vivek is a qualified Chartered Accountant (Institute of Chartered Accountants of India). Vivek is passionate about Technical Analysis, a self taught Elliott Wave Technician. He conducts technical analyis on a variety of financial instruments on his blogvivekoutlook.blogspot.com. He will be covering commodities for Orpheus Research.
Vivek has worked with BDO Consulting in Oman, as Business Consultant working on feasibility studies for expansion projects for companies. He has worked with Irevna – Division of CRISIL conducting fundamental analysis - sell side analysis - of Information technology companies.

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Alpha Global - The Pair Grid

A technician always has a challenge of coverage. We are trained for speed to spot opportunities. One can look at BSE 30 components, but looking through BSE500 or say RUSSELL 3000 chart by chart is a tough task. The information is growing exponentially like everything else and systems are needed to know where to look.

Orpheus Performance cycles are a novel way to manage a large universe of coverage that works on the idea of mathematical time and cyclical performance. The worst performers should outperform and best performers should underperform.

Today we have matched the best with the worst in the pair grid. The horizontal menu is the top performers and the vertical components are the worst assets. Alpha Global covers 120 assets. This includes commodities, currencies, DOW 30 components, Global Equity Indices and sector representations.

This feature is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts

Enjoy the latest Alpha Global.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Time Analytics research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities


Why is Dafora an accumulate?

Alpha Romania. Late Economic: The new channels format carries naked signals (long only – short only), sector ranking and performance cycles along with the technical analysis in order to improve accuracy and for a better understanding of the market.

There are two systems used in this report. The anticipatory performance cycle Reiki system and the trending long only – short only (LOSO) signal system.

The trending system will reverse only after price confirmation whereas the Reiki will anticipate reversals.

The report covers 30 top traded stocks and Romanian Indices.  Oltchim, Dafora, BIO, TGN are running positive LOSO signals while ALUMIL is running a negative signal.

TRANSELECTRICA DAILY (TEL). Rieki performance cycles have moved lower as prices stagnated around 18 levels.  Now performance cycles are bottoming suggesting a potential outperformance for the stock. Any negativity on the stock should be marginal and an opportunity to accumulate. A LOSO buy signal on TEL will be our sign to buy.ALRO DAILY. Rieki performance cycles continue to point up. Above 3 we continue to look higher. TRANSGAZ DAILY (TGN). Rieki performance cycles continue to point up. Above 260 we continue to look higher. DAFORA DAILY (DAFR). Despite falling RIEKI prices have remained sideways. Now performance cycles are bottoming suggesting outperformance for the stock. This means that any push lower on prices should be marginal and an opportunity to accumulate. OLTCHIM WEEKLY. LOSO tracker is positive. Above 0.2 we continue to look higher. BIO DAILY. LOSO tracker is positive. Moving average crossover remains positive. Above 0.2 we can see further positivity.

Enjoy the latest Alpha Romania.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numerc Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Time Analytics research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: 30 top traded stocks and Romanian Indices.

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Alpha India LE - Hindalco. Completing minor impulse up

HINDALCO DAILY Prices are still completing the minor impulse up. Rieki pushed higher along with the price structure. The LOSO signal on Hindalco is still running positive. We need a break sub previous supports at psychological 200 for a negative price confirmation.

New Format: Our CHANNELS.INDIA report has a new format which integrates the single asset (long only, short only signals) LOSO, pair strategies with performance cycles (Rieki), Elliott and technical analysis on the major Indian indices. LOSO is a trending system and will not give reversal signals without price confirmation while RIEKI is an anticipatory system that can warn of impending turns and reversals.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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Alpha Romania FAQs

1.On 26 Oct 2010  SIF5 exit with 7.2% return. What was the signals for sale?
The tracker at the end of each  ALPHA report carries the LOSO (naked, long or short) signals.  The system is based on time triads. When three degrees of time turn down, the signal becomes negative and vice versa. Now barring SIF1 and SIF4 all the system is exit on all SIFs.

2.On 25.10.2010 the report said SIF5 is heading to key supports and Rieki crossover also suggest lower prices. Are the signals for your decision is Rieki crossover only ?
Orpheus Research uses a confluence approach. We are using three systems now. First is conventional technical analysis (including Elliott waves), second is LOSO (a trending time triad system and third is performance cycles (Rieki). When LOSO was exit on SIF5 then the technical picture and Rieki confirmations were seen for SIF5. Both of these two  signals suggest SIF5 could be in for a large negative reversal. We have modeled the crossover system. When the crossover is negative, Rieki is negative and vice versa. At this stage SIF5 crossover is negative, but SIF5 DEC has not turned down yet.
3.On 26.10.2010 you exit ATB (-1.7% return). Why did you close ATB, because on Alpha 25.10.2010 for ATB was a buy running signal (entry at 0.6) and more it was ranked last in performance cycles with the best potential outperformer and more. 26.10.2010 you said ATB are bottoming and suggest that a break at 0.6 on the upside is imminent. Then why should we sell?

The three systems, which we explained above are designed for a multi week holding periods. And like we mentioned, a system can be negative and other two positive. ATB is a better buy when all of the signals are pointing to a buy. Traders are suggested to look at a break at 0.6, positive Rieki and positive LOSO trending signal for buying. Investors with a large holding period of few months and looking for relative performance can buy just based on Rieki which suggest that ATB should outperform.
4.What is your standard percent (%)  for Stop Loss (-1.7% is very insignificant for a stock especially  in Romania)?
Stop losses are built into the LOSO system. And in case the system does not trigger a stop, we override the system with a manual stop of 4%. (1.7%) was a system stop.
Enjoy the latest Alpha Indices.

WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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Alpha India Indices - Anticipated and happened special

Login for orpheus.asia member’s area here.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009

Alpha India

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Orpheus India Research

WAVES.INDIA is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

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The Economic Nobel - II

Social sciences approach to tackling dynamic problems might be a vicious cycle.

Almost a decade back on Dec 10, 1999, Professor Torsten Persson said “The advancement of science frequently relies on new methods that allow us to approach questions no one has been able to answer in the past. Scientific breakthroughs also occur when creative researchers ask new questions that no one was imaginative enough to formulate in the past. The ability to pose new questions is perhaps particularly important in economics and other social sciences. Society undergoes constant transformation, due to changed institutions, behavior and expectations. In other words, the social sciences necessarily attack moving targets”.

Coming to look at it, the problem case is so dynamic that we have spent more than 250 years analyzing problems and offering solutions.  A few of the last 50 years Nobel Prize winning solutions are either already challenged or are counter arguments to answers offered  more than a 100 years ago.

Problems, solutions, new problems

1999 winner Robert A. Mundell formulated dynamic models to deal with the economy’s adjustment over time. He examined ways in which monetary and fiscal policy can be decentralized. He asked questions like how might instability in the economy be avoided over time? Mundell offered a solution to currency regime, which first came true as Bretton Woods failed. Now in the current context of currency wars it seems we have a bigger problem than the one already addressed by the social scientist in 1960.

To read complete the complete article visit Alrroya

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


Alpha India ME - Telecommunications and Industrials

CROMPTON 60MIN Prices are retesting previous minor highs. A break here would be a positive confirmation. Performance cycles (Rieki) seem to be heading to a bottom. We have a fresh positive signal on Crompton to confirm our view.

New Format: Our CHANNELS.INDIA report has a new format which integrates the single asset (long only, short only signals) LOSO, pair strategies with performance cycles (Rieki), Elliott and technical analysis on the major Indian indices. LOSO is a trending system and will not give reversal signals without price confirmation while RIEKI is an anticipatory system that can warn of impending turns and reversals.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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CAD/CHF - Anticipated and Happened

Enjoy the latest Waves Forex.

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti covers Forex in her weekly columns.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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Alpha India Indices - Best buy, best sell sectors

Login for orpheus.asia member’s area here.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009

Alpha India

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Orpheus India Research

WAVES.INDIA is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

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