Archive for October 17th, 2010

Channels India - Early Economic

The new channels format carries naked signals (long only – short only), sector ranking and performance cycles along with the technical analysis in order to improve accuracy and for a better understanding of the market. Our long only – short only perspective has been extended to 100 stocks and offers a larger selection of assets. The tracker has been broken into three separate parts: first, the new signals, second, signals that need to be closed and third, the running signals.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Life and coastlines

Some problems span multi generations, Benoit Mandelbrot solved one such problem and earned himself a well deserving place in history, as the father of fractals.  Many of these mathematical structures and their descriptions go back to classical mathematics and mathematicians of the past like Cantor, Peano, Hilbert, Koch, Sierpinski, Julia, Hausdorff, but it was Mandelbrot who extended the early topology. Fractals solve the problem of how to organize complicated structure in an efficient way. Of course this was not what Peano and Hilbert were interested in almost 100 years ago. It was only after Mandelbrot’s work that the omnipresence of fractals became apparent.

Mandelbrot was a visionary in his ability to connect mathematics and patterns. He too like many other great thinkers worked on ideas of aggregation, simplification, order, efficiency rules, cyclicality in errors, interconnectedness of nature through geometrical structures. Mandelbrot illustrated that very simple formulas can generate objects that exhibit an extraordinary wealth of structure. His work encompasses mathematics, physics, economics and diverse other fields of physical and social sciences, music and art. He died on 14 Oct at the age of 85 after suffering from pancreatic cancer.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


Sugar, Carbon Rieki Structures

REUTERS RICS:  SUGA.L, CARB.L

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 50. 1 is top relative performance and 50 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Vivek is a qualified Chartered Accountant (Institute of Chartered Accountants of India). Vivek is passionate about Technical Analysis, a self taught Elliott Wave Technician. He conducts technical analyis on a variety of financial instruments on his blog vivekoutlook.blogspot.com. He will be covering commodities for Orpheus Research.
Vivek has worked with BDO Consulting in Oman, as Business Consultant working on feasibility studies for expansion projects for companies. He has worked with Irevna – Division of CRISIL conducting fundamental analysis - sell side analysis - of Information technology companies.

Sugar rules the rankings, while Nat Gas rots

To read more on India strategy mail us for subscription details to Alpha India.

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Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States

Performance Cycles (Rieki) on nine major forex pairs gives a global perspective.

The idea of performance cycles is built around divergence between the worst and the best. After a certain time the best and worst reverse polarity. The histogram carries a 6 month return comparative between few best and worst Nifty blue chips. SBI, ITC were the best and Suzlon, Jaiprakash and Reliance were the worst. After we ranked the stocks on performance we looked at the Rieki (performance cycles) for the respective stocks.


Alpha India - The best sell

Does a market always have best sell and best buy stocks? If buy and sell are replaced by hold and reduce, there are always best buys and best sells at all times. Our ranking system is a simple way to find out top rankers i.e. top performers. And considering performance is cyclical, Nifty is still moving around 6,000, Nifty VIX is consolidating around 20 and is at a cycle low, it would be interesting to rank the market components. This is what we did. We generated top rankers.

The latest Alpha India carries pair tracker signals, numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles. To read more on India strategy mail us for subscription details to Alpha India.

Written for Association of Technical Market Analysts

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Alpha India

Alpha is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation.
Coverage India: BSE Health Care and components
Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

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Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States