Archive for November, 2010

The Index Rieki

Index Rieki depicts the performance cyclicality of an Index. Just like a stock outperforms and underperforms, so does an index witness seasonality in performance. The difference between an Index Rieki and stock Rieki is that an Index is an average of stock prices and hence is less volatile than the stock. This is the reason an Index Rieki will rarely go to extreme ranking like (best or worst).
Rieki works like an oscillator. A falling oscillator is negative suggesting underperformance and vice versa. Rieki oscillators can be studied like conventional momentum indicators. We can look for non confirmations, head and shoulder patterns, supports and resistance.

The latest Alpha carries the anticipated and happened cases on Hungarian BUX and Stoxx Euro 50 (Ticks. Global). Now ATX and Czech PX are ready to reverse. Dollar Index is running positive both on LOSO and Rieki. CEERIUS Index is already negative and with a topping Rieki suggests further negative confirmation. We don’t have an encouraging picture on most equity indices including the local Romanian indices. BETNG has a topping Rieki and negative LOSO. We continue to look at negativity underperformance for the respective index.

The Alpha 54 coverage includes the following equity and commodity Indices. Hungarian BUX, Dow Jones Industrials, Bulgarian REITs, Stoxx Euro 50, Polish WIG, Austrian ATX, Czech PX, Gold and Silver Index, Dollar Index, Natural Gas Index and Brent Crude.

The latest Alpha carries the anticipated and happened cases on Hungarian BUX and Stoxx Euro 50 (Ticks. Global). Now ATX and Czech PX are ready to reverse. Dollar Index is running positive both on LOSO and Rieki. CEERIUS Index is already negative and with a topping Rieki suggests further negative confirmation. We don’t have an encouraging picture on most equity indices including the local Romanian indices. BETNG has a topping Rieki and negative LOSO. We continue to look at negativity underperformance for the respective index.

The Alpha Romania 54 coverage includes the following equity and commodity Indices. Hungarian BUX, Dow Jones Industrials, Bulgarian REITs, Stoxx Euro 50, Polish WIG, Austrian ATX, Czech PX, Gold and Silver Index, Dollar Index, Natural Gas Index and Brent Crude.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


Alpha India Indices - Sector ranking

The minor view on the overall market remains negative with a potential subminor correction up now that prices reached first key Fibonacci supports. NIFTY is heading towards our anticipated targets at 5,600-5,400 levels. NIFTY VIX seems to be in an ongoing Ending Diagonal formation, while INR continues to hold anticipated 46 resistances.

BSE Consumer Durables and NIFTY VIX remain the two extremities of the sector numeric ranking. BSE Auto, Healthcare, FMCG should underperform in the next weeks, while BSE Realty, BSE Metals, BSE Power and INR Futures are best buys.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: 100 top traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Orpheus Store

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009


The Soft Supercycle

Despite the recent fall Sugar and Coffee are still in news. The preferred view might look like an extending 3 cycle wave up. However, it makes sense to see what is not obvious from a rising asset price structure. This is the most common mistake Elliotticians make, not thinking of how the asset can surprise or in other words a backup alternate count. We have made a case for an alternate super cycle reversal here for sugar.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts


Alpha.Rom - Elliott and LOSO

Elliott wave is a price pattern theory which suggests the trends move in five wave formations and counter trend moves in three wave structures. After a five wave completes prices retrace in a three wave structure. Orpheus LOSO trending system is slow and seeks price confirmation before reversing. The LOSO tracker will only alert us in case a trend is in place and not otherwise. So in the case of SIF5 till the time counter trend is weak and not challenging the previous down trend SIF5 will remain negative. LOSO is now negative on most financials along with best sell BVB and BRK. SIF2 and SIF4 are the new shorts. BVB and BRK remain the top ranking shorts. BETFI is also negative on LOSO and Rieki.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


Alpha India EE - Corporation and Canara Bank ready to fall

Banks remain the top performers of the Early Economic sector. The numeric ranking illustrated here indicates more components from the Banking sector. 8 of the 20 top performers are banks: Federal Bank, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, Corporation Bank, Andhra Bank, Syndicate Bank, Axis Bank and IDBI Bank.

We expect Nsebank to underperform the broad market in the weeks ahead. We have illustrated here the technical view which suggests psychological 10,000 as a potential intermediate target (previous A wave highs and key Fibonacci supports).

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: 100 top traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009


RRC delivers 18%

Though the last LOSO negative signal on RRC delivered 9%, the trending system has been negative for 163 days out of 193 trading days since 14 may. During this period RRC fell by 18%. Trending systems work best in trended markets. The RIEKI performance cycles remains up but topping and even technically we don’t have a reversal signal yet. RSI momentum is oversold, but still negative. We have illustrated the OIL prices, which are also suggesting an exhausting structure. The minor trend remains negative for the stock. The latest Alpha carries the late economic update with the LOSO tracker update. Prefab delivered 10%.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


Alpha India LE - The Rieki portfolio

Classic pair trading is about matching Asset A with Asset B. Rieki pair trading is about matching outperformers against underperformers. It’s a combination of assets. Outperformers are long spot trades and underperformers are short futures trade. We have illustrated a tradable portfolio designed on Indian markets. Here we have matched the exposures on the long and short side. The total exposure is near INR 50 lakh (80,000 Euros). The closed trades are LIC Housing and Bajaj Auto futures. We have rolled over LIC housing in Dec futures.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: 100 top traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Orpheus Store

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Alpha.Rom - The TGN trap

When the trending systems gives only a few buy signals and coincidentally those few buys are also the best performers among 54 assets than you can be sure it’s a trap.

TGN is still a buy on the trending system as the prices continue to stay near historical tops. However, the very fact that TGN is the best of the best and the rest of the market is in negative indicates that TGN is a trap and the market bias is clearly negative. TGN is going to reverse sooner than later.

All of TLV, BRK, RRC, TRANSELECTRICA, COMI, SIF5 DEC, SIF1, SIF3, SIF5, TERPLAST, IMPACT, BETFI, BET, ALUMIL, AMO, ARMATURA, CEON, PREFAB, HUNGARIAN BUX are negative.

We have updated Alpha with the latest Rieki.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


Nikkei 225 reached 10,000-10,300 reversal area

Enjoy the latest Alpha Global.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Orpheus Global Research

Contributing Columnist: Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he’s joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. In 2007 he was authorized as an investment consultant by the Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals.


The intuition system

High mathematics downplays intuition as unsystematic, emotional, and unaccountable. However, the more we move into time systems and try to mechanize entries and exits, we realize that we can never eliminate risk. Execution is about intuition.

At the heart of things we are all investors, whether some of us are overdoing it with housewife calls or calling ourselves knowledge workers who have nothing to do with markets, we are a part of the same chain. Stock market intuition is a high skill for life. We confuse it with speculation and all that herding.

First and foremost, the intuition system is not very fast moving. If you think you have one, it should not give you calls every day intraday, it should be more like a multi month, maybe 18-24 month system or more. Intuition systems are not more about trends.  Intuition systems guide us with understanding minimal risks. What is a minimal risk entry or exit?  Intuition systems are also built on patience. You can’t have an intuition system based on stress related to certain expiration. Intuition system is something which gives you the confidence to buy puts, bleed but rollover at expirations. If you are bleeding every 18 months, it is a minimal risk, not high risk. If you are doing puts and calls every month, you have no intuition system.

The problem with intuition systems is that they are generally about a crash or scary bubbles. A real intuition system works both ways, telling you to buy in Mar 2009 or telling you to sell now in Nov 2010. A test of intuition systems could be if it can differentiate between underperformance and outperformance. But then intuition systems can’t do everything.

The performance ranking we have mentioned on prior occasion is a good decision support for intuition systems. The best of the best are too be avoided and the worst of worst are to be selected. This simple idea can give you the courage to listen to your intuition if you think gold, silver and metals are really overstretched.  It could avoid a loss, when you are short sugar, short cotton as they continued to rise exponentially. It could be a test of nerves, but that that’s how intuition systems brave. The crack on sugar and cotton reinforced the system for all who believed like us that Agro was a best sell. We are still running the long Natgas – Short Sugar pair. As anticipated our best short on Banks, Auto and LIC Housing mentioned by Anna in the India pair grid are still running. Our annual rankings suggest Suzlon, Reliance, Reliance power are the best holds. And yes our intuition systems are looking for best shorts.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: BSE500 stocks, Indian Indices, Commodities, Currrency and Bonds.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009