Archive for December 11th, 2010

The Extraordinary Delusions

Societal expressions will remain extraordinary and extreme, cyclically.

Abraham Lincoln was careful about what he wrote. But it was his duel of 1842 with James Shields that really brought that cautious change. Dueling was a normal practice to challenge and sort out differences. Lincoln apologized and managed to avoid a potential disaster. America could have lost its president to a duel.

There is always belief of opinion, a challenger and a contest. This contest becomes delusional when it beats commonsense, is not normal, has extremity associated with it. This is why Charles Mackay details duels as one of the extraordinary delusions society suffered till 1790’s. Charles did not live long enough to see how madness of crowds persisted long after his historical ‘Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds.’ Societal solutions or approach generally has extremity associated with it. It’s not just about wars, but panic, euphoria, consumption excesses, construction, capitalism or communism all have an extremity in nature.

This article is written for Alrroya

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.