Archive for January 6th, 2011

Alpha India LE - The Tisco case

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


TICKS.GLOBAL - The Currency Update

EURUSD. GBPUSD.USDJPY.AUDUSD.
EURUSD. Prices make a retest of the intermediate trend line and fail to push higher. A break at 1.31 level supports will take prices back to 1.264, which is previous support and Fibonacci projection.
GBPUSD. Sub 1.55 key intermediate targets lie at 1.5.
USDJPY. The prices have made a higher low. A push above previous high and multimonth resistance near 84 will suggest a reversal in trend up for the pair.
AUDUSD. This again is a key retest of a multimonth trendline resistance. A negative price confirmation will push the pair lower till 0.95 levels.

TICKS.GLOBAL covers DOW, GOLD, SILVER, OIL, EURUSD, DAX and other global assets and futures on an Intra day basis. The reports are published through a self refreshing webpage. TICKS.GLOBAL is a web based service it is only available through the Orpheus Site.


The Dow Rieki

Dow Jones Industrial is not the best, but is near the top.  Being an index we don’t expect rankings to push higher till 10 or higher. The Rieki crossover is negative. We continue to looking at a topping performance case on Dow as it moves higher. Irrespective of popular belief Dow should underperform the top 50 global assets.


Why are SNP and Oil topping?

Since May 2010 Brent Crude Oil has outperformed SNP (Romanian Oil Major) by 15%. The Rieki performance cycle illustrates Brent Crude outperformance against SNP (Fig 2.). Now the Rieki cycle is touching a maximum. This suggests that it is time for a shift in performance polarity and for Brent Crude to underperform SNP (Petrom). Even individually Brent (Fig 1) has topping Rieki performance cycles suggesting that the commodity might pause before pushing up relentlessly ahead.

Technically SNP, the Romanian Oil major is also hitting overbought momentum levels. The RSI seems over reactive and suggests a topping structure for the blue chip.
Even if SNP does not fall, it could still stagnate as it nears multi year resistances at 0.38-0.4 levels. A topping case on SNP is not good for Brent, which should fall in such an eventuality.

Among energy assets, Natural Gas has finally closed it’s short only trending signal and has turned positive. This as we mentioned prior makes a negative case for TGN. BETFI is still below key resistance levels. Our preferred view remains negative, we still need more price positivity to look for a sustained uptrend from current levels. The LOSO trending system is LONG on a very few stocks.
Enjoy the latest Alpha Indices.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.


What happened to Bajaj Auto?

We said Bajaj Auto should crack on 8 Dec.

Ticks.India – Bajaj Auto anticipated ‘head & shoulder’ ready to happen?